[ExI] ETs/Aliens

[BillK]

On Wed, 21 Aug 2024 at 08:14, Keith Henson via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> https://arxiv.org › abs › 1806.02404
>
> [1806.02404] Dissolving the Fermi Paradox - arXiv.org
>
> Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Toby Ord. View a PDF of the paper
> titled Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, by Anders Sandberg and 1 other
> authors. The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a
> high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the
> universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe.
>
> Dissolving the Fermi Paradox
>
> ^^^^^
>
> The above paper gives low odds of there being another technological
> civilization in our galaxy.  I found the paper reasonable and
> accounting for what we see out there.  More or less considered it a
> closed issue.
>
> The paper came out about the same time that the odd behavior of
> Tabby's Star was discovered.
>
> I was in the camp of it must be natural.  However when they found a
> number of other stars in a cluster around Tabby's Star, it seems to me
> to be evidence of life spreading from star to star.
>
> Simple analysis of the shadow patterns leads to an object at 7.8 AU
> and over 400 times the area of the Earth.  This is not in the
> habitable zone, but it does seem to be in the computational zone.
> Could we be looking at the shadows of giant data centers holding
> trillions of uploaded aliens?  Off planet giant data centers may be in
> our future so perhaps that's what happened at Tabby's star and the
> other ones that blink.
>
> Good reason to keep you cryonics contract active if you want to know
> how this story turns out.
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________


The main problem with discussing the Fermi paradox is the old
"known unknowns and unknown unknowns" quote.  :)

This paper has been much discussed on the internet (as might be expected).
A quick search found -
<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kvZshdx5FzTPjyhxG/the-fermi-paradox-has-not-been-dissolved>
and the Robin Hanson post -
<https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/try-try-or-try-once-great-filterhtml>
which suggests that if life is extremely rare, we should be extremely
surprised that it originated on earth.

On earth, research suggests that life began almost as soon as the
planet originated.
This implies life could be common, but 'intelligent life' more rare.

Anyway, if you are a cryonics supporter, (and can afford it), you
probably have better reasons than 'There might be aliens'
uncontactable light years distant away.  :)

BillK