[ExI] ETs/Aliens

[spike at rainier66.com]

...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] ETs/Aliens

https://arxiv.org › abs › 1806.02404

>>...[1806.02404] Dissolving the Fermi Paradox - arXiv.org
...
...
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

^^^^^

>...The above paper gives low odds of there being another technological civilization in our galaxy.  I found the paper reasonable and accounting for what we see out there.  More or less considered it a closed issue.

>...The paper came out about the same time that the odd behavior of Tabby's Star was discovered.

...
>...Good reason to keep you cryonics contract active if you want to know how this story turns out.

Keith

_______________________________________________



Kieth I too was once in the camp holding that the Tabby's star behavior was natural, but my calculations on MBrains and the cluster of dippers caused me to now think there is about a 60% chance Tabby's star dipping is caused by an artifact.

Reasoning: during our previous discussions on MBrains, you dismissed the idea mostly because thought would be too slow: an MBrain using 10% of a star's energy might "think" 100 times slower than a single human because of signal latency.

I might agree that a simulated brain would be very slow compared to a human, but... it isn't under the same limitations either.

Suppose we use the speed of human thought as a standard by which to measure other simulated forms of thought.  Anything far slower than human makes little sense, but keep in mind that we humans are limited to about 100 years of thinking at best.  So if we can be simulated at a speed of 1% human equivalent but we have 10,000 years, that might be perceived in a way similar to how we would perceive a century.

Our star has about 5 billion years left on its main sequence.  

So... is it such a show-stopper to be limited to 1% human equivalent speed?

Another way to look at it: suppose we had a sim which could run a our speed, at one human equivalent.  Would 5 billion years of that make sense?  Well, we like to think so.  But... perhaps not.  Perhaps 50 million years of one human equivalent would be sufficient, and if so, an MBrain, with its latency limits would make perfect sense.

There is a reason I press this argument.  After all these years, I still have not found a convincing mathematical model or argument that the waste heat problem can be solved.

There is a second reason I press this argument: from what I can tell, an optimal complete MBrain would appear to be intermittently gappy or dippy.  Reason: those gaps (thru which we observe full light from the partially-eclipsed star) are intentional and necessary.  They are the portals thru which waste heat is directed out into cold space.  I do not think Robert Bradbury's uniform multiple spherical shell is plausible.  With his design, the inner layer will overheat.  With big gaps, the inner layer has a way to radiate its waste heat.

Deetz available upon request (some of them are available (I am moving my son to his dorm room today.))

spike