[ExI] new job

[Kelly Anderson]

On Wed, Dec 18, 2024 at 1:36 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On 2024-12-18 11:29, Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat wrote:
> > On Mon, Nov 25, 2024 at 3:56 PM efc--- via extropy-chat
> > <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >> >       Will Musk become the first trillionaire?
> >> >
> >> > I think so. The main reason being that while mars might remain out of reach
> >> > for a minute, asteroid mining to (ostensibly) pay for mars exploration, may
> >> > not be so far out of reach. I would love to see someone crash Psyche softlyish
> >> > into the moon and mine the crash site for the next 100 years... it would at
> >> > least make an interesting science fiction story.
> >>
> >> That would be a nice story! Fascinating mega project too! The world
> >> needs more
> >> ambitious megaprojects. When ever I am bored with life, I wish there
> >> were more
> >> moonshots around.
> >
> > Having the metals of Psyche available would make a lot of megaprojects
> > possible that we simply don't have enough iron for today.
>
> I think that for asteroid mining, Apophis should be a priority. It is
> scheduled to pass uncomfortably close to Earth in 2029 and there is a
> chance that the close approach will nudge into a subsequent collision
> course with Earth. So any minerals we get from it would be a bonus to
> not havinbg to worry about it.

Apophis is classified as an Sq-type asteroid, which typically
indicates a silicaceous (stony) composition that's somewhat similar to
ordinary chondrite meteorites. While it may have some iron and nickel,
it is not nearly as valuable as some others... Here's some AI
thoughts...

Let me think through the practicality of mining Apophis step by step:

Size and Resource Potential

Apophis is relatively small (about 370 meters wide)
While it likely contains valuable metals, the total quantity would be
limited by its size
Many other near-Earth asteroids are larger and potentially richer in resources

Accessibility Considerations

Apophis will make an extremely close approach to Earth in 2029
This could theoretically make it more accessible than many other asteroids
However, its orbit and velocity would still make mining operations challenging

Technical Challenges

We currently don't have proven asteroid mining technology
The irregular shape and spinning motion of Apophis would complicate operations
Equipment would need to be developed to work in micro-gravity conditions
Getting mining equipment to and from Apophis would be extremely expensive

Economic Factors

Launch costs remain very high
The technology development needed would require massive investment
Market prices for metals would need to justify the enormous expenses
Other asteroids might offer better return on investment

Timing Issues

The 2029 close approach would be the ideal window
This leaves limited time to develop and deploy mining technology
Missing this window would make the operation much more difficult

Given these factors, mining Apophis probably wouldn't be the most
practical choice for early asteroid mining efforts. Larger, more
resource-rich, and more easily accessible asteroids would likely make
better initial targets. The main advantage Apophis offers is its close
approach in 2029, but the technical and economic challenges would
likely outweigh this benefit.

Would you like me to elaborate on any of these aspects?

CopyRetry
KA

What asteroids would be best to start with?

Edit

Let me analyze the best candidate asteroids for initial mining operations:

Near-Earth asteroids with these characteristics would be ideal first targets:

Ryugu and Bennu

We've already visited them with sample return missions (Hayabusa2 and
OSIRIS-REx)
We have detailed surface maps and composition data
Both are relatively large (Ryugu ~900m, Bennu ~490m)
Their carbon-rich composition suggests valuable rare metals
Their orbits are well understood
They rotate slowly, making operations easier

1986 DA

Extremely metal-rich (M-type asteroid)
Estimated to contain large amounts of iron, nickel, cobalt, and precious metals
Relatively close orbit to Earth
Size (~2-3 km) provides substantial material to work with
Potentially worth trillions in metal value

2011 UW158

Another metal-rich asteroid
Estimated value in the trillions due to platinum group metals
Relatively accessible orbit
Size (~300m) makes it manageable for initial operations

4660 Nereus

Very accessible orbit with low delta-v requirement
Frequent close approaches to Earth
Small size (~330m) but easier to reach than most
Has been considered for sample return missions

Key factors that make these good candidates:

Known composition through spectral analysis
Stable rotation
Orbits requiring relatively low fuel to reach
Sufficient size to be worth mining but not too large for initial operations
Multiple opportunities for launches due to orbital mechanics

The ideal first target would combine accessibility with known
characteristics from previous missions, which is why Ryugu and Bennu
are particularly attractive despite not being the most valuable in
terms of raw materials.

======

1986 DA sounds very interesting and I'd never heard of that one before.

-Kelly