[ExI] Play Money odds Betting on Canonizer? Re: Would human uploads have emotions?

Tue Feb 20 03:05:40 UTC 2024

Hmmm.

What have I said to make you think I "acknowledge there is no way to make
money with this"?
In reality, I think just the opposite.  I believe we will eventually crack
the nut of how to educate everyone about what is required to
communicate concisely and quantitatively about what everyone wants.  How to
amplify the moral wisdom of the crowd and finally enable our morals to keep
up with our technology, with a single source of always improving
moral truth contained in consensus trees, enabling the solving of all the
world's problems.  If something isn't successful at pulling people together
and without a trusted source of moral truth that is progressing as fast as
technology, without something that enables AI's goals to be "aligned" with
humane's goals, the social media companies' business model of fanning the
flaming bleating and tweeting as much as possible which is ripping us
apart will destroy  humanity.

I very firmly believe we can find a way to make lots of money at this.
We've currently got several prospective ways of making money, and I believe
it is only a matter of time before many of these ideas finally start to
bear fruit.

On Mon, Feb 19, 2024 at 5:28 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> You acknowledge there is no way to make money with this, and yet that an
> ICO waits until money can be made with this.
>
> A successful ICO absolutely depends on the perception that there is money
> to be made.  So long as you are actively suppressing this, there can be no
> successful ICO.
>
> On Mon, Feb 19, 2024 at 2:39 PM Brent Allsop via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>> I've been closely tracking ICOs since way before the term ICO even
>> existed.  I've also briefly described some of the below to a few crypto
>> knowledgeable attorneys and they seem to think there might be a way to do
>> what I describe here.  But I don't know everything.
>>
>> First off, we're not going to do a full blown ICO until AFTER we get some
>> significant traction, AND canonizer is financially exothermic.
>>
>> What I'm thinking of now, before an official ICO, is just some
>> Cannon coins that would ONLY be a recognition of voluntary contributions to
>> Canonizer.com.  If you contribute $100 to Canonizer.com LLC you would get 1
>> recognition share for helping canonizer bring the world back together by
>> building and tracking consensus on moral truth, undoing what all the
>> ripping apart of society all the other social media sites are doing.
>>
>> These coins would not be legally redeemable back to any kind of cash or
>> coin.  All you could do with them is hold them or bet them into a canonizer
>> topic.  You would do that at the current consensus rate of that camp, and
>> at some later time, you could cash them out of the topic, back into your
>> wallet, for more or less canon coin as determined whether your camp
>> increased or decreased its consensus during that time.  In order to be
>> legal, there can't be any "quid pro quo" so there would be none of that
>> guaranteed by making a donation to Canonizer.com LLC.
>>
>> It is only our Goal to at some time do a real ICO, only after we are
>> proving we can make money with this.  It is only our goal that some portion
>> of the equity distributed in the genesis block of that ICO to the holders
>> of these Canon coins accordingly.  Just a goal, no legal quid quo pro.  All
>> contributions would just be a donation to Canonizer.com LLC,  nothing more.
>>
>>
>> Does that make sense?  Does that sound possible/legal?
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Feb 19, 2024 at 2:08 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>>> How much experience do you have with ICOs?  If none, how much research
>>> have you done?
>>>
>>> I have seen ICOs go down in flames far more often than I have seen them
>>> generate significant revenue.  There are many common mistakes people keep
>>> making.  While I'm not sure what the formula for success is, I am certain
>>> that blazing on into one without substantial marketing resources is a
>>> recipe for failure oft overlooked by confident folks drunk on their own
>>> hype.
>>>
>>> I would not say you are drunk on your own hype with regard to an ICO at
>>> this time, but it is something you need to watch out for should you
>>> seriously pursue one.
>>>
>>> On Mon, Feb 19, 2024, 12:37 PM Brent Allsop via extropy-chat <
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Hi Spike,
>>>>
>>>> Would you be willing to donate money to Canonizer.com LLC to receive contribution
>>>> regognition shares
>>>> <https://canonizer.com/topic/4-Contribution-Recognition/1-Agreement> and
>>>> then bet those recognition shares?  There would be no current legal way to
>>>> convert them back into money, as they would just be recognition for
>>>> donations given to Canonizer.   Our goal is, if we get some traction, to
>>>> have a real ICO for canon coins, and include any outstanding shares in the
>>>> genesys block of the Canon Coin ICO.  You can see all the donors who
>>>> currently hold recognition shares, and their share of all outstanding
>>>> recognition shares here
>>>> <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13VFaSHKTBtAGrDZaNGzR9C3EoMFepoYWG9d1IooBpZs/edit#gid=260413746>,
>>>> .  That is If we can get the lawyers to find a way so we can start
>>>> distributing canon coin recognition shares before an official ICO.
>>>>
>>>> Or would you only be willing to bet play money that didn't require a
>>>> donation to Canonizer?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Feb 19, 2024 at 1:00 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From:* Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at gmail.com>
>>>>> *Sent:* Monday, 19 February, 2024 11:52 AM
>>>>> *To:* spike at rainier66.com; The Important Questions <
>>>>> the-important-questions at googlegroups.com>
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Would human uploads have emotions?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Hi spike,
>>>>>
>>>>> Thanks!
>>>>>
>>>>> Yes, I was one of the top betters on Robon's future betting site for
>>>>> quite a while.
>>>>>
>>>>> And my current thinking is that the betting model would be very much
>>>>> like Robin's system used.
>>>>>
>>>>> The odds could be split across competing camps, based on how much
>>>>> consensus each camp would have, compared to competing camps.
>>>>>
>>>>> If someone discovered and verified that something like our description
>>>>> of glutamate reacting in a synapse was a description of what consciousness
>>>>> can detect as a subjective redness quality, and that there is absolutely NO
>>>>> WAY announce could ever experience redness in any "functional" way, without
>>>>> said glutamate, then all you functionalists would be forced to abandon your
>>>>> then falsified functionalists camps, and join the Molecular
>>>>> Materialism
>>>>> <https://canonizer.com/topic/88-Theories-of-Consciousness/36-Molecular-Materialism>
>>>>> camp.
>>>>>
>>>>> And the best part is, since there are a gazillion functionalists like
>>>>> you, they are a dime a dozen.  And I don't know of any Molecular
>>>>> Materialists
>>>>> <https://canonizer.com/topic/88-Theories-of-Consciousness/36-Molecular-Materialism>
>>>>> that would be willing to bet money.  So I should get quite rich from such a
>>>>> scheme!!! ;) ;)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> And the best part is, all you functionalists, causing all these so
>>>>> called 'hard problems', preventing everyone from discovering which of all
>>>>> our objective descriptions of stuff in the brain is a description of
>>>>> subjective redness will finally be punished, financially, for the damage
>>>>> you guys are still doing to progress in this field.  ;)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Spike, Jason, Stathis....  Would any of you functionalists be willing
>>>>> to bet 10 or 20 Ether on any of the functionalist camps??? ;)  I'd take
>>>>> that bet against functionalists camps any day, at any odds…
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Brent, do post to ExI please.  We are too small a group over here.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Sure I would play a monetized canonizer, a play-money version, with
>>>>> public-accessible (for those signed up to play) betting history.  I am much
>>>>> more comfortable with that sliding scale business than I am with a
>>>>> yes-or-no-ish do you believe yakkity yak or do you believe bla bla.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Reason: I don’t really think that way: the Boolean yes or no, 1 or 0,
>>>>> I believe this or that.  I think in terms of percent chance that something
>>>>> is right.  The odds change over time.  Furthermore… Keith has correctly
>>>>> pointed out that humans are pre-programmed to compete, play games and go to
>>>>> war, or if no actual war is available, invent war-simulation games.
>>>>> Likewise we love to compete, even if it is just for play money.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> spike
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Feb 19, 2024 at 12:26 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Hi Brent this offlist discussion is perfectly appropriate to post to
>>>>> ExIchat, and I do encourage you do to do that, with all the comments I
>>>>> made, including this one.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Regarding legal betting in the US, I don’t know.  But PredictIt, where
>>>>> I play, is based in New Zealand.  It is dwindling now, but only because
>>>>> there are plenty of alternative sites which do a lot more with sports
>>>>> betting methinks.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Some of us are old enough to remember Robin Hanson’s Ideas Futures,
>>>>> which is play money betting.  He had worked out a system which did not
>>>>> involve real money, so everything is perfectly legal, but we know that real
>>>>> people did trade real money for play money in the game, which one could
>>>>> argue converted it into the functional equivalent of real money gambling.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> In a lotta ways, I liked play money betting better, because people
>>>>> took it more seriously, and the rules were different: all betting history
>>>>> had to be available to the proletariat.  That part of it was cool.  You
>>>>> could see who did what, when and how they made their “money.”  It was so
>>>>> educational.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Robin is still around, and is currently an economics professor at
>>>>> Mason (last I heard (has anyone heard from Dr. Hanson more recently than
>>>>> about 5 yrs ago?))   I would bet 60 cents on the dollar Robin would likely
>>>>> be perfectly willing and eager to advise us on how to do a play-monetized
>>>>> version of canonizer.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Brent, do post all of this to ExI please, if you are willing.  I don’t
>>>>> see anything you wrote which needs to be kept secret but I don’t make that
>>>>> call for you, or for anyone who posts me offlist.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> spike
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From:* Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at gmail.com>
>>>>> *Sent:* Monday, 19 February, 2024 10:58 AM
>>>>> *To:* spike at rainier66.com
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Would human uploads have emotions?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Oh COOOL!!!
>>>>>
>>>>> That helps me understand your beliefs a LOT.  Thanks.
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm sure a lot of people's hesitance to support a camp is precisely
>>>>> because people aren't yet sure, and just have a general idea of odds, like
>>>>> you.
>>>>>
>>>>> I hesitate to join camps on other topics I'm not an expert at, for the
>>>>> same reasons.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> One of our goals is to implement betting on camps, and track this over
>>>>> time.  Now that you mentioned this, I'm going to start on a design to get
>>>>> get betting started.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Does anyone know if this type of futures betting is legal in the US?
>>>>> If so, I bet we'll have it implemented in a few months, so people can bet
>>>>> their beliefs and values.
>>>>>
>>>>> I"m sure we could get some camps set up to precisely account for what
>>>>> you are describing, and it's almost there, in the structure  now.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> If it isn't legal to purchase bets in real USD, then we'd need to
>>>>> finally create some canonpon coins to bet with, as we've been planning.
>>>>>
>>>>> You could buy 1 canonin coin for $100, and use that to bet your camp
>>>>> with something like the odds you are talking about.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Oh, and for each canon coin you own (purely representing recognition
>>>>> of contributions, legally there can be no quid pro quo till we have a real
>>>>> equity ICO which is our goal once we can get some traction...) you can vote
>>>>> those recognition shares to make decisions as described here
>>>>> <https://canonizer.com/topic/4-Contribution-Recognition/1-Agreement?canon=8>
>>>>> .
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Feb 19, 2024 at 11:02 AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On
>>>>> Behalf Of *Brent Allsop via extropy-chat
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Would human uploads have emotions?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Hi Spike,
>>>>>
>>>>> Your beliefs are hard to pin down.
>>>>>
>>>>> First you say: "I do not wish to believe that thought is substrate
>>>>> dependent, and I don’t."  (Yay! ;)
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm wondering exactly what you mean with that "I don't"
>>>>>
>>>>> then you seem to contradict your desires with:
>>>>>
>>>>> "I hope not but think [swimming in endorphins]  is likely."  (I can
>>>>> relate to this.)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> And it is fascinating that you express this as desire, rather than
>>>>> just stating factual beliefs, independent of any desires, like lots of
>>>>> people seem to try to do.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Ja.  Brent a better way to state my belief is in terms of probability
>>>>> or even betting.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> We know the game of political betting: vote your values, bet your
>>>>> beliefs.  If you do that, in the long run, you win.  You win by taking
>>>>> advantage of those who bet their values.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> It is my belief that thought is substrate independent.  I would pay 80
>>>>> cents for that bet.  But I would only give about 25 to 30 cents that
>>>>> emotion and the feelings associated with my mariachi band at Berkeley
>>>>> experience is substrate independent.  It might be independent, but I fear
>>>>> that somehow emotion is entirely dependent on substrate and requires analog
>>>>> meat brains.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I don’t know how to express that on canonizer, and haven’t messed with
>>>>> it.  Don’t give up on me Brent, getting up to speed on canonizer is on my
>>>>> list.  It just isn’t at the top of my list and currently isn’t seriously
>>>>> challenging anything up there at the top.  But times change.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Speaking of which… political betting is a kind of monetized Canonizer,
>>>>> ja?  I had never thought of it that way until you brought up the influence
>>>>> of desire vs belief.  Cool.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> spike
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sun, Feb 18, 2024 at 10:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
>>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sat, Feb 17, 2024 at 8:54 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
>>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> >…I have been musing on mariachi band experiences and I have doubts
>>>>> that
>>>>> uploads will have experiences like humans… BillK
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> BillK I reluctantly agree.  I do not wish to believe that thought is
>>>>> substrate dependent, and I don’t.  But I am compelled to think that human
>>>>> emotion, as humans experience it, might require carbon-based meat brains,
>>>>> swimming in hormones and endorphins.  I hope not, but think it is likely.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> spike
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
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