[ExI] AI and autonomous warfare

[Keith Henson]

> getting AI regulations right.

Can't be done.  We have no idea of what regulations are needed, and in
any way the AI upsides make a compelling case for profit (if nothing
else) to continue as fast as possible.

Keith

On Tue, Jul 16, 2024 at 9:13 AM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> It would sure be nice if we could devise some sort of "Geneva
> Conventions" for AI, but we can't even get a stable safety board
> inside of a company to make sure they aren't accidentally going to
> mess us up. If you can't cooperate for safety inside of a single
> company, how much more difficult would it be for nations in conflict
> to do the same? I can't imagine what rules would even look like, other
> than the ultra simple "there has to be a human in the chain to pull
> the trigger", but even that's already been blown through in Ukraine,
> by both sides. Besides, humans slow things down and thus ruin your
> potential for surprise.
>
> Looking at the recent assassination attempt, with its collateral
> damage, it seems that if there were some sort of crowd sourced
> information base that was rapid enough, a life could have been saved.
> Also, why weren't there drones with AI flying over the area? If we
> can't protect a presidential candidate with simply implemented
> technology, what hope do we have of getting AI regulations right.
>
> -Kelly
>
> On Tue, Jul 16, 2024 at 8:33 AM BillK via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > On Mon, 15 Jul 2024 at 00:22, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > This long article discusses the increasing problem of autonomous weapons in warfare.
> > > <https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/14/ais-oppenheimer-moment-autonomous-weapons-enter-the-battlefield>
> > > Quote:
> > >
> > > AI’s ‘Oppenheimer moment’: autonomous weapons enter the battlefield
> > > The military use of AI-enabled weapons is growing, and the industry that provides them is booming
> > > Nick Robins-Early      Sun 14 Jul 2024 17.00 BS
> > > What has changed, researchers say, is both increased public attention to everything AI and genuine breakthroughs in the technology. Whether a weapon is truly “autonomous” has always been the subject of debate. Experts and researchers say autonomy is better understood as a spectrum rather than a binary, but they generally agree that machines are now able to make more decisions without human input than ever before.
> > > -------------------------------------
> > >
> > > I asked Perplexity AI to review this long article.
> > > BillK
> > >
> > > Perplexity AI -
> > >
> > > The article from The Guardian discusses the increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military weapons and operations, highlighting what some experts are calling AI's "Oppenheimer moment" - a reference to the development of the atomic bomb. This trend raises significant ethical, legal, and strategic implications for modern warfare.
> > > <snip>
> > > -----------------------
> >
> >
> > As Perplexity AI insisted on the need for international cooperation to
> > avoid an AI weapons arms race, I pointed out that while a war was in
> > progress there would be little likelihood of international cooperation.
> > Nations will not restrict weapon developments during wartime.
> > War plus AI seems to indicate a bleak future.
> >
> > Perplexity AI grudgingly agreed, but then still added a long section
> > about the urgent need for international cooperation.
> >
> > Below is the first part of the reply (with the long wishful-thinking cooperation
> > section removed):
> > BillK
> >
> > Perplexity AI:
> > The continuation of the AI weapons arms race during ongoing conflicts
> > is a significant concern, as nations prioritize military superiority
> > over cooperative regulation. Here are the key points and implications
> > based on the provided search results:
> >
> > 1. Intensification of the AI Arms Race
> >
> > Current State of Affairs:
> > The AI arms race is characterized by rapid advancements in military
> > technology among major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia. This
> > competition is driven by the desire for strategic and tactical
> > advantages on the battlefield, leading to the development of
> > increasingly sophisticated AI-driven systems such as drones and
> > autonomous vehicles.
> >
> > Implications:
> >
> > Escalation of Conflicts:
> > The deployment of AI weapons can lead to faster and more automated
> > warfare, potentially escalating conflicts due to reduced
> > decision-making times and increased reliance on AI for strategic
> > assessments.
> >
> > Ethical and Legal Challenges:
> > The use of AI in warfare raises significant ethical and legal
> > questions, including accountability for AI-driven actions and the
> > potential for increased civilian casualties.
> >
> > 2. Challenges to International Cooperation
> >
> > War and Cooperation:
> > During active conflicts, nations are less likely to engage in
> > cooperative efforts to regulate AI weapons, as their immediate focus
> > is on gaining military advantages. This competitive environment makes
> > it difficult to establish and enforce international agreements or
> > treaties aimed at controlling the development and use of AI in
> > warfare. Implications:
> >
> > Lack of Regulation:
> > The absence of international cooperation can lead to a lack of
> > effective regulation, increasing the risks associated with the
> > deployment of AI weapons.
> >
> > Proliferation of AI Weapons:
> > Without international agreements, there is a higher likelihood of AI
> > weapons proliferating, potentially falling into the hands of non-state
> > actors or being used in ways that violate international humanitarian
> > law.
> > -----------------------
> >
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