From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jun  1 00:22:40 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 31 May 2024 20:22:40 -0400
Subject: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armitFkxyXaw9nLLiN5eV4anks0Pxnyb-229PBnT960u+0A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armitFkxyXaw9nLLiN5eV4anks0Pxnyb-229PBnT960u+0A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>

You just need to get in and out of a hollow shell dense enough to be a
black hole.

On Fri, May 31, 2024, 6:14?PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> A Groundbreaking Scientific Discovery Just Gave Humanity the Keys to
> Interstellar Travel.
> In a first, this warp drive actually obeys the laws of physics.
> By Manasee Wagh    Published: May 29, 2024
>
> <
> https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a60941082/light-speed-warp-drive-breakthrough/
> >
>
> The Alcubierre drive has a glaring problem: the force behind its
> operation, called ?negative energy,? involves exotic
> particles?hypothetical matter that, as far as we know, doesn?t exist
> in our universe. And faster-than-light travel is impossible.
>
> But a new proposal allows for up-to-light-speed warp drive. So, still
> impossible at present, but researchers are hopeful.  :)
>
> Interesting article!
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Jun  1 00:25:29 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 31 May 2024 17:25:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armitFkxyXaw9nLLiN5eV4anks0Pxnyb-229PBnT960u+0A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003301dab3ba$360c36b0$a224a410$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive

 

 

 

 

>?You just need to get in and out of a hollow shell dense enough to be a black hole? Adrian

 

 

I?m sorry Dave.  I?m afraid I can?t do that.  Hal

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Fri, May 31, 2024, 6:14?PM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

A Groundbreaking Scientific Discovery Just Gave Humanity the Keys to
Interstellar Travel.
In a first, this warp drive actually obeys the laws of physics.
By Manasee Wagh    Published: May 29, 2024

<https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a60941082/light-speed-warp-drive-breakthrough/>

The Alcubierre drive has a glaring problem: the force behind its
operation, called ?negative energy,? involves exotic
particles?hypothetical matter that, as far as we know, doesn?t exist
in our universe. And faster-than-light travel is impossible.

But a new proposal allows for up-to-light-speed warp drive. So, still
impossible at present, but researchers are hopeful.  :)

Interesting article!

BillK

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From q.alpha at gmail.com  Sat Jun  1 06:29:57 2024
From: q.alpha at gmail.com (Christopher Toth)
Date: Sat, 1 Jun 2024 00:29:57 -0600
Subject: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive
In-Reply-To: <003301dab3ba$360c36b0$a224a410$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armitFkxyXaw9nLLiN5eV4anks0Pxnyb-229PBnT960u+0A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <003301dab3ba$360c36b0$a224a410$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <24f0ebd7-8e74-43ee-a065-44089a24ccba@gmail.com>

This is unfortunately as impractical as Alcubierre's solution, and it is 
surprising it is getting airtime. It doesn't give us FTL, for one, 
whereas AFAIK this was already solved, even in our Universe?


Erik Lentz[0] seems to have most of the practicalities figured out, and 
is merely fighting with orders of magnitude--something we should be used 
to conquering here.


[0]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.00652


On 5/31/2024 6:25 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote:
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On 
> Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive
>
> >?You just need to get in and out of a hollow shell dense enough to be 
> a black hole? Adrian
>
> I?m sorry Dave.? I?m afraid I can?t do that.? Hal
>
> On Fri, May 31, 2024, 6:14?PM BillK via extropy-chat 
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>     A Groundbreaking Scientific Discovery Just Gave Humanity the Keys to
>     Interstellar Travel.
>     In a first, this warp drive actually obeys the laws of physics.
>     By Manasee Wagh? ? Published: May 29, 2024
>
>     <https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a60941082/light-speed-warp-drive-breakthrough/>
>
>     The Alcubierre drive has a glaring problem: the force behind its
>     operation, called ?negative energy,? involves exotic
>     particles?hypothetical matter that, as far as we know, doesn?t exist
>     in our universe. And faster-than-light travel is impossible.
>
>     But a new proposal allows for up-to-light-speed warp drive. So, still
>     impossible at present, but researchers are hopeful.? :)
>
>     Interesting article!
>
>     BillK
>
>     _______________________________________________
>     extropy-chat mailing list
>     extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>     http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jun  1 09:44:28 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 1 Jun 2024 10:44:28 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armitFkxyXaw9nLLiN5eV4anks0Pxnyb-229PBnT960u+0A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armj-or4zHxw+u_f_MdCZQoda9k8FERnmrOBHYHrZ88tSRQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 1 Jun 2024 at 01:22, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> You just need to get in and out of a hollow shell dense enough to be a black hole.
> _______________________________________________


Yes, being able to manipulate gravity fields would be a big help.
Bending space will probably require a lot of energy.
If that ever becomes possible, there are many other implications that
could affect most everything.  :)

BillK

From ben at zaiboc.net  Sat Jun  1 14:45:11 2024
From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sat, 1 Jun 2024 15:45:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] 
 =?utf-8?q?Elon_Musk_Predicts_Future_Where_=E2=80=9D_None_O?=
 =?utf-8?q?f_Us_Will_Have_A_Job=E2=80=9D?=
In-Reply-To: <mailman.33.1717034865.141.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.33.1717034865.141.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <f2addbae-e176-4497-aeb1-2bf06484fba4@zaiboc.net>

On 30/05/2024 03:07, extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org wrote:
> Tesla?s founder also mentioned that AI will provide unprecedented
> educational opportunities, saying, ?I think everyone will have access
> to this magic genie, and you can ask any question. It?ll certainly be
> bigger for education. It?ll be the best tutor.? Musk predicted that
> this future would bring an age of abundance of goods and services.

Everyone?

Everyone in the democratic western countries maybe, but they are in the 
minority (a shrinking minority, it seems at the moment).

I can't see any of the tyrannical states in the rest of the world being 
willing to let their subjects have access to the kind of power that this 
magic genie could grant, and we're probably talking about 75% of the 
world's population.

We all think about things like longevity, curing cancer and 
technological development, but perhaps a more significant thing a 
superhuman AI genie could work on would be a cure for despotism.

An age of abundance is pretty lame if it only applies to a quarter of 
the human race.

Ben
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jun  2 21:18:18 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 22:18:18 +0100
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
Message-ID: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>

Just saw this comment on the interwebs....

"You know what the biggest problem with pushing all-things-AI is?
Wrong direction. I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can
do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can
do my laundry and dishes".
---------------------

How true.   There is much research ongoing into getting humanoid
robots to do manual labour tasks in factories and homes.
It is difficult, but progressing.

But the difficulty is that when robots can do all the boring manual
tasks, we will realise that all our fun hobbies can also be done much
better by AI.      So what happens then?

BillK

From dsunley at gmail.com  Sun Jun  2 21:37:37 2024
From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley)
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 15:37:37 -0600
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAEptUkQUy1pEK3bGegfK34mCgsF5By2sfRCphNByvNHJ3pa65A@mail.gmail.com>

It always amuses me that AI and robotics came out almost precisely the
opposite of how science fiction through the 70s depicted it.

Science fiction told us that human-level intelligence was pretty straight
forward, fluent speech synthesis was tricky but doable, and smooth bipedal
locomotion was very difficult, bordering on impossible.

In reality, things turned out precisely the opposite: we got fluent speech
synthesis first, smooth bipedal motion very shortly thereafter, and human
level intelligence last, and with enormous amounts of compute and effort.

You've pointed out something interesting - even within the subdomain of
purely abstract intelligence, things came out in the opposite order from
science fiction. Science fiction told us AIs would find math and logic easy
and natural, but artistic creative work difficult and borderline
incomprehensible. and of course, the opposite is the case - AIs find art
and creative work pretty straightforward, but have difficulty with
arithmetic and multi-step logical derivations.

Funny old world, innit?

On Sun, Jun 2, 2024 at 3:21?PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Just saw this comment on the interwebs....
>
> "You know what the biggest problem with pushing all-things-AI is?
> Wrong direction. I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can
> do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can
> do my laundry and dishes".
> ---------------------
>
> How true.   There is much research ongoing into getting humanoid
> robots to do manual labour tasks in factories and homes.
> It is difficult, but progressing.
>
> But the difficulty is that when robots can do all the boring manual
> tasks, we will realise that all our fun hobbies can also be done much
> better by AI.      So what happens then?
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jun  2 22:11:27 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 23:11:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
Message-ID: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>

Even the economists are getting worried about falling birth rates.
BillK

>From the baby boom to the baby bust
Falling fertility rates are one of the biggest challenges facing our world
Martin Wolf     May 28, 2024

<https://www.ft.com/content/ab4ce770-18cf-4025-8714-186f16a4f145>
Quote:
People live longer than ever before. This, as I noted recently, has
created both opportunities and challenges. But postponing death is
only a part of the demographic story. The other is the decline in
births. The combination of the two is creating huge changes in the
world we inhabit.
---------------------

From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Jun  3 00:04:25 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 17:04:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003c01dab549$98bdda30$ca398e90$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Sunday, 2 June, 2024 3:11 PM
To: Extropy Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust

Even the economists are getting worried about falling birth rates.
BillK

>From the baby boom to the baby bust
Falling fertility rates are one of the biggest challenges facing our world
Martin Wolf     May 28, 2024

<https://www.ft.com/content/ab4ce770-18cf-4025-8714-186f16a4f145>
Quote:
People live longer than ever before. This, as I noted recently, has created
both opportunities and challenges. But postponing death is only a part of
the demographic story. The other is the decline in births. The combination
of the two is creating huge changes in the world we inhabit.
---------------------
_______________________________________________



BillK, it might be insightful to study areas where there are already few
children, a low child to adult ratio, such as the San Francisco Bay area.
In most places around the bay, it is too expensive to have children, or if
one goes to the few areas where it isn't too expensive, it is too dangerous
to raise children.  Overall, birth rates are low, as fertile young people
are too busy with their careers to do families.  I notice a huge difference
between here and when I go back to where I cheerfully misspent my own
childhood.  They have a much higher child to geezer ratio back there:
families can afford to live.  Here, young single educated men struggle.

There are other examples: retirement communities, such as Sun City Arizona,
where one must be over 55 to even own a home in some places.  They import
labor from elsewhere I suppose.

spike


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jun  3 09:13:28 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 10:13:28 +0100
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <003c01dab549$98bdda30$ca398e90$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01dab549$98bdda30$ca398e90$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg20nO-LwgAZAFEQneydNOrj4UTjeRyChvEcu3Mj6PVog@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 3 Jun 2024 at 01:04, <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>
> BillK, it might be insightful to study areas where there are already few
> children, a low child to adult ratio, such as the San Francisco Bay area.
> In most places around the bay, it is too expensive to have children, or if
> one goes to the few areas where it isn't too expensive, it is too dangerous
> to raise children.  Overall, birth rates are low, as fertile young people
> are too busy with their careers to do families.  I notice a huge difference
> between here and when I go back to where I cheerfully misspent my own
> childhood.  They have a much higher child to geezer ratio back there:
> families can afford to live.  Here, young single educated men struggle.
>
> There are other examples: retirement communities, such as Sun City Arizona,
> where one must be over 55 to even own a home in some places.  They import
> labor from elsewhere I suppose.
>
> spike
>------------------------------------------


Is Japan the future for western countries?
Japan has solved the housing crisis.
Too many homes, not enough people.
BillK

<https://thedeepdive.ca/japans-housing-crisis-not-enough-people-too-many-vacant-homes/>
Quotes:
Japan?s Housing Crisis: Not Enough People, Too Many Vacant Homes
May 16, 2024 JP Alegre

On the opposite side of the world, the housing crisis isn?t about a
shortage in supply but a shortage of people needing homes. Recent data
released by Japan?s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
show that the country?s number of empty homes continues to rise.

The survey reveals that vacancies have reached a staggering 8.99
million, marking an 80% increase over the past two decades. This means
that 13.8% of all homes in Japan are now unoccupied, with the share
exceeding 20% in some rural areas where population decline is more
pronounced.

The data also highlights a significant increase in the number of
abandoned homes, which has risen to 3.85 million, or 5.9% of all
homes.
-----------------------


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun  3 09:20:17 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 11:20:17 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>



On Sun, 2 Jun 2024, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

> Just saw this comment on the interwebs....
>
> "You know what the biggest problem with pushing all-things-AI is?
> Wrong direction. I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can
> do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can
> do my laundry and dishes".
> ---------------------
>
> How true.   There is much research ongoing into getting humanoid
> robots to do manual labour tasks in factories and homes.
> It is difficult, but progressing.

Problem solved! I have a dish washer and a laundry machine. Takes me very 
little time.

> But the difficulty is that when robots can do all the boring manual
> tasks, we will realise that all our fun hobbies can also be done much
> better by AI.      So what happens then?

Nothing. I do my hobbies because they are fun, not because I demand 
perfection or because there are humans on this planet who are better than 
I am at my hobbies.

So from a purely hobbyist perspective, I couldn't care less. =)

Best regards,
Daniel


> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun  3 09:24:35 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 11:24:35 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <bf602571-9f3d-0de6-e0a1-63e544749e0a@swisscows.email>

On Sun, 2 Jun 2024, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

> Even the economists are getting worried about falling birth rates.
> BillK

I think the system will auto-correct. I don't remember where I read it,
but I think I read somewhere that someone predicted the planet will
reach an equilibrium of around 12 billion people.

The way out of it is of course increase automation, ai and robots in the
long term, immigration in the short term, and restructuring the way we
think about social security in the mid-term.

With falling numbers, the pyramid scheme of social security will crash,
and there is a limit to how high taxes you can have before society
collapses.

What I find very interesting, is why fertility rates are falling. Is is
medical, cultural or both? Probably both, and if so, what's the medical
reason?

Best regards, 
Daniel


>
> From the baby boom to the baby bust
> Falling fertility rates are one of the biggest challenges facing our world
> Martin Wolf     May 28, 2024
>
> <https://www.ft.com/content/ab4ce770-18cf-4025-8714-186f16a4f145>
> Quote:
> People live longer than ever before. This, as I noted recently, has
> created both opportunities and challenges. But postponing death is
> only a part of the demographic story. The other is the decline in
> births. The combination of the two is creating huge changes in the
> world we inhabit.
> ---------------------
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jun  3 09:44:41 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 10:44:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 3 Jun 2024 at 10:23, efc--- via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Problem solved! I have a dish washer and a laundry machine. Takes me very
> little time.
>
> Nothing. I do my hobbies because they are fun, not because I demand
> perfection or because there are humans on this planet who are better than
> I am at my hobbies.
>
> So from a purely hobbyist perspective, I couldn't care less. =)
>
> Best regards, Daniel
>--------------------------------------------


I think you might be an optimist.  :)
You will have to be a very determined hobbyist.
I used to play competitive chess. Then all computers gained the
ability to not only play better than me, but would happily explain in
detail why my play was so pitifully weak and demonstrate all the
errors I made. So I was converted to an admiring spectator.
I expect the same will apply to many hobbies. Authors already use AI
to correct and suggest improvements to their essays. AI can now
write stories when given just a few plot and character hints.
The future will be very different.

BillK

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun  3 11:09:46 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 07:09:46 -0400
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <bf602571-9f3d-0de6-e0a1-63e544749e0a@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <bf602571-9f3d-0de6-e0a1-63e544749e0a@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTGdkwX6257jJP3k2iFZLjNhhVPW0cpT337HP5ZJefDfQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024, 5:31?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> What I find very interesting, is why fertility rates are falling. Is is
> medical, cultural or both? Probably both, and if so, what's the medical
> reason?
>

Having a baby has always been medically risky and stressful for the woman.
With much longer life expectancy, in much better condition (between the
economy, and technologically improved quality of life), there is that much
more to risk by creating a baby.

But I would say the problem is more economical.  Raising a child from 0 to
18 is far more expensive than just having a child (e.g. if given up for
adoption), especially if one adds in a parent-funded college education, and
with uncertain futures, many women and men are less certain it is worth
their time and money.  This is due to conditions that predated the 21st
century: notice the falling birthrate in country after country as they gain
access to modern Western standards of living (Japan being among the first,
many African countries being much later).

One possible solution is political: pro-natalist funding that consistently
and substantially offsets and/or lowers the cost of child raising.
Universal state funded daycare, for example.  Your mind's ear can probably
already predict the howls of outrage from certain sectors, who claim to be
about "family values" (and in practice mean valuing their own family above
all others), at the mere thought of providing such services to the poors
(or insert whatever minority grouping, but it is usually disdain for anyone
in no position to potentially fund the legislators' political careers).
There is the possibility of a focused technological effort to radically
drive down the cost of raising a child so as to achieve much the same
result, but I am unaware of any large scale effort that explicitly has such
a direct goal at this time.

>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Jun  3 11:36:36 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 06:36:36 -0500
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTGdkwX6257jJP3k2iFZLjNhhVPW0cpT337HP5ZJefDfQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <bf602571-9f3d-0de6-e0a1-63e544749e0a@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTGdkwX6257jJP3k2iFZLjNhhVPW0cpT337HP5ZJefDfQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbGrYfYkLwhQboxX0hSytyRNejWv5HZ4rQfg76gWz8pzw@mail.gmail.com>

What I find very interesting, is why fertility rates are falling. Is it
medical, cultural or both? Probably both, and if so, what's the medical
reason?

As quality of life improves (access to food, shelter, etc.) birth rates go
down.  Historically, many children would die young (which drastically
skewed the statistics on how long the people lived) and so they kept on
having them because they needed them to work the farm and so on and support
them in their old age.  When confidence that the offspring would live grew
to a certain point, they quit trying to have more - birth control obviously
helped here.  This has been true in many countries and now we have places
where the replacement birth rate (having two kids replacing the parents) is
negative.

The fewer the better, I say.    bill w

The fewer the better, I say.   bill w

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 6:11?AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Jun 3, 2024, 5:31?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> What I find very interesting, is why fertility rates are falling. Is is
>> medical, cultural or both? Probably both, and if so, what's the medical
>> reason?
>>
>
> Having a baby has always been medically risky and stressful for the
> woman.  With much longer life expectancy, in much better condition (between
> the economy, and technologically improved quality of life), there is that
> much more to risk by creating a baby.
>
> But I would say the problem is more economical.  Raising a child from 0 to
> 18 is far more expensive than just having a child (e.g. if given up for
> adoption), especially if one adds in a parent-funded college education, and
> with uncertain futures, many women and men are less certain it is worth
> their time and money.  This is due to conditions that predated the 21st
> century: notice the falling birthrate in country after country as they gain
> access to modern Western standards of living (Japan being among the first,
> many African countries being much later).
>
> One possible solution is political: pro-natalist funding that consistently
> and substantially offsets and/or lowers the cost of child raising.
> Universal state funded daycare, for example.  Your mind's ear can probably
> already predict the howls of outrage from certain sectors, who claim to be
> about "family values" (and in practice mean valuing their own family above
> all others), at the mere thought of providing such services to the poors
> (or insert whatever minority grouping, but it is usually disdain for anyone
> in no position to potentially fund the legislators' political careers).
> There is the possibility of a focused technological effort to radically
> drive down the cost of raising a child so as to achieve much the same
> result, but I am unaware of any large scale effort that explicitly has such
> a direct goal at this time.
>
>> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun  3 12:13:55 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 14:13:55 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <a81ee87c-9994-db45-c66c-1978d24ba9bd@swisscows.email>



On Mon, 3 Jun 2024, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

>>
>> Problem solved! I have a dish washer and a laundry machine. Takes me very
>> little time.
>>
>> Nothing. I do my hobbies because they are fun, not because I demand
>> perfection or because there are humans on this planet who are better than
>> I am at my hobbies.
>>
>> So from a purely hobbyist perspective, I couldn't care less. =)
>>
>> Best regards, Daniel
>> --------------------------------------------
>
>
> I think you might be an optimist.  :)

Guilty as charged! At least when it comes to some things, so a kind
of "fluctuating optimist" perhaps. ;)

> You will have to be a very determined hobbyist.
> I used to play competitive chess. Then all computers gained the
> ability to not only play better than me, but would happily explain in
> detail why my play was so pitifully weak and demonstrate all the
> errors I made. So I was converted to an admiring spectator.
> I expect the same will apply to many hobbies. Authors already use AI
> to correct and suggest improvements to their essays. AI can now
> write stories when given just a few plot and character hints.
> The future will be very different.

Interesting! I do play chess as well from time to time, but in my case,
I only play against humans. The computer is only for training or
preparation. On top of that, I do enjoy the history and legends, and the
fact that you can dig deeper and deeper and you never reach the "bottom"
of chess.

But I should add to that, that my chess playing comes and goes in cycles
and depends heavily on if I find someone who is interested and at a
somewhat similar level.

> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun  3 12:20:08 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 14:20:08 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTGdkwX6257jJP3k2iFZLjNhhVPW0cpT337HP5ZJefDfQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <bf602571-9f3d-0de6-e0a1-63e544749e0a@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTGdkwX6257jJP3k2iFZLjNhhVPW0cpT337HP5ZJefDfQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <ada250b8-0968-2518-24ce-370c4ad0a026@swisscows.email>

Hello Adrian,

On Mon, 3 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> On Mon, Jun 3, 2024, 5:31?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       What I find very interesting, is why fertility rates are falling. Is is
>       medical, cultural or both? Probably both, and if so, what's the medical
>       reason?
> 
> One possible solution is political: pro-natalist funding that
> consistently and substantially offsets and/or lowers the cost of child
> raising.? Universal state funded daycare, for example.? Your mind's
> ear can probably already predict the howls of outrage from certain
> sectors, who claim to be about "family values" (and in practice mean

I'm not so sure. Sweden has free university and heavily subsidized
daycare and health care and has very low fertility rates. 2023 the nr of
births per woman in sweden was 1.45. That number is a record low.

I think what you suggest is not the entire answer, at least not when
looking at swedish society and the trend of birth rates.

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun  3 12:31:43 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 08:31:43 -0400
Subject: [ExI] From the baby boom to the baby bust
In-Reply-To: <ada250b8-0968-2518-24ce-370c4ad0a026@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armiTR6kpbzWaC-7DAbcz29=ztQGmk59fzJs6VJCSsrJYWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <bf602571-9f3d-0de6-e0a1-63e544749e0a@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTGdkwX6257jJP3k2iFZLjNhhVPW0cpT337HP5ZJefDfQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <ada250b8-0968-2518-24ce-370c4ad0a026@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT5QzRFD+vrv1bDbwwELQVaFVLi+4LFHYivCob4YfVfiA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:21?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I think what you suggest is not the entire answer
>

Agreed on general principle.  For problems like this, there almost never is
one single "the entire" answer.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Jun  3 13:48:03 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 06:48:03 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a101dab5bc$a8826d50$f98747f0$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Monday, 3 June, 2024 2:45 AM

>... I used to play competitive chess...

Cool I am surprised you didn't mention it before.  

I am living a life of deep regret BillK.  The vague estimate is that one
loses about a 100 Elo for each decade of life after age 30.  I am in my 60s
and my current Chess.com rating is 1913.  If I hadn't been distracted by
trivialities such as "family" and "career" an "adult responsibilities" and
other nonsense, if I had focused on my game, I coulda made at MASTER!  I
never made it there, damn.  Lee Corbin did however.

>...Then all computers gained the ability to not only play better than me,
but would happily explain in detail why my play was so pitifully weak and
demonstrate all the errors I made...

In some ways, I prefer to play computers.  They are more consistent, and
they compose some very cool strategies.

>...The future will be very different.

BillK
_______________________________________________

Ja, no doubt.  The right now is very different from the world of my
tragically squandered youth.  I am having fun in the now however, and had
fun then, so I predict I will have fun in the future too.

spike


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun  3 15:15:58 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 17:15:58 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <00a101dab5bc$a8826d50$f98747f0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101dab5bc$a8826d50$f98747f0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <b06cc5c2-8e25-263a-9284-1cd061b8c991@swisscows.email>

Fear not spike, you're note alone! I know an IM who quit chess due to the 
amount of time and effort would be required for him to go from IM to GM.
When he realized that, in connection with how little money he would earn
compared with his IT consulting, he decided that enough was enough, and
devoted his time to other things instead.

Best regards,
Daniel


On Mon, 3 Jun 2024, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote:

>
> ...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
> Sent: Monday, 3 June, 2024 2:45 AM
>
>> ... I used to play competitive chess...
>
> Cool I am surprised you didn't mention it before.
>
> I am living a life of deep regret BillK.  The vague estimate is that one
> loses about a 100 Elo for each decade of life after age 30.  I am in my 60s
> and my current Chess.com rating is 1913.  If I hadn't been distracted by
> trivialities such as "family" and "career" an "adult responsibilities" and
> other nonsense, if I had focused on my game, I coulda made at MASTER!  I
> never made it there, damn.  Lee Corbin did however.
>
>> ...Then all computers gained the ability to not only play better than me,
> but would happily explain in detail why my play was so pitifully weak and
> demonstrate all the errors I made...
>
> In some ways, I prefer to play computers.  They are more consistent, and
> they compose some very cool strategies.
>
>> ...The future will be very different.
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
>
> Ja, no doubt.  The right now is very different from the world of my
> tragically squandered youth.  I am having fun in the now however, and had
> fun then, so I predict I will have fun in the future too.
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Jun  3 19:11:45 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2024 12:11:45 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?
In-Reply-To: <b06cc5c2-8e25-263a-9284-1cd061b8c991@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armjVsf3D-bdieLrRfdS+2Fq0x4nFWEfG_Mx=Mnshs6wSDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <179c46a3-947d-05a3-11b8-c5c75feb85e5@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armhx_+xL+MveK8f6gmbiVgS6E-sP+ut_9caMuOmQmhak-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101dab5bc$a8826d50$f98747f0$@rainier66.com>
 <b06cc5c2-8e25-263a-9284-1cd061b8c991@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <009b01dab5e9$e0bf45d0$a23dd170$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
efc--- via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] AI can create songs and write essays - Really?

>...Fear not spike, you're note alone! I know an IM who quit chess due to
the amount of time and effort would be required for him to go from IM to GM.
When he realized that, in connection with how little money he would earn
compared with his IT consulting, he decided that enough was enough, and
devoted his time to other things instead.

Best regards,
Daniel



Well sure, but if I had made master, I would definitely keep my day job.
But I would die with a smile on my face.  I would really be in awe of
myself.

Regarding Lee Corbin, he also quit chess, with a peak rating in the mid 22s.
He was a hard core player, always down at the Mechanics Institute for the
Tuesday Night Marathons, one of the fossils at the Wedensday night local
club, the Kolty, which is a dang strong club down in Campbell.  Lee
eventually gave up chess for math.

spike


From avant at sollegro.com  Tue Jun  4 18:19:19 2024
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Tue, 04 Jun 2024 11:19:19 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Design of interstellar warp drive
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj-or4zHxw+u_f_MdCZQoda9k8FERnmrOBHYHrZ88tSRQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armitFkxyXaw9nLLiN5eV4anks0Pxnyb-229PBnT960u+0A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ9fY=zrxa6Z=5cV-TBo4KwB8nx5yWhrL2--GrsKuszzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armj-or4zHxw+u_f_MdCZQoda9k8FERnmrOBHYHrZ88tSRQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <d6da03c4b9afed207e25cb7daec8d8a7@sollegro.com>

On 2024-06-01 02:44, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:
> On Sat, 1 Jun 2024 at 01:22, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:
>> 
>> You just need to get in and out of a hollow shell dense enough to be a 
>> black hole.
>> _______________________________________________
> 
> 
> Yes, being able to manipulate gravity fields would be a big help.
> Bending space will probably require a lot of energy.
> If that ever becomes possible, there are many other implications that
> could affect most everything.  :)

Even being able to accurately map gravitational fields in real time 
would be a huge benefit. This would enable a robust Interplanetary 
Transport Network that would allow us to very efficiently transport 
people and commodities around the solar system like existing highway or 
railway systems allow planet side. Imagine a navigation computer that 
calculated the precise burn and heading you would need to use 
gravitational sling shots, transfer orbits, and braking at the 
destination. Perhaps even something like an interplanetary bus route. 
That seems achievable with existing technology especially with the 
current advances in AI.

Stuart LaForge

From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Jun  5 09:35:31 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 5 Jun 2024 10:35:31 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Geoengineering termination shock from SO2 reduction in
 shipping fuel
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgLPPnjfQPytC_CbBrJaFVWu4ZimOLeQ5VtxNyFhm-DUw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <47419736.30520.1717107265856.ref@mail.yahoo.com>
 <47419736.30520.1717107265856@mail.yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armgLPPnjfQPytC_CbBrJaFVWu4ZimOLeQ5VtxNyFhm-DUw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjdd0O-=O=yDVbXD0m5sj0CirU0pzS5-5fX+XS5hMemcg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, 31 May 2024 at 01:00, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> It appears to be the Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again.
> Yes, it is good to reduce atmosphere pollution, but clearer air
> increases climate warming.
> This applies to all atmosphere pollution, not just marine diesel.
>
<snip>
>
> BillK
-----------------------------------------


There is now a realisation among climate scientists that cleaning up
the smog in the atmosphere drives global warming. Unfortunately, they
don't have any option here. Not cleaning up atmosphere pollution from
fossil fuels would cause too many deaths.
BillK

<https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change>
Quotes:
Published at the Yale School of the Environment

ANALYSIS

Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China?s
air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific.
Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution,
while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere.
By Fred Pearce ? May 28, 2024

The idea that cleaning up air pollution can worsen atmospheric warming
sounds counterintuitive.
Yangyang Xu, an atmospheric scientist at Texas A&M University not
involved in the study, said it shows that ?aerosol reductions will
perturb the climate system in ways we have not experienced before.
It will give us surprises.?
----------------------------


From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Jun  5 20:54:49 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 5 Jun 2024 21:54:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The JWST is Re-Writing Astronomy Textbooks
Message-ID: <CAL_armgnFnXr85m5Jf7dWwupOc_J6vqYJit3377+upiMiCOjmA@mail.gmail.com>

The JWST is Re-Writing Astronomy Textbooks
Posted on June 5, 2024
<https://www.universetoday.com/167269/the-jwst-is-re-writing-astronomy-textbooks/>
by Evan Gough <https://www.universetoday.com/author/evan-gough/>

When the James Webb Space Telescope was launched at the end of 2021, we
expected stunning images and illuminating scientific results. So far, the
powerful space telescope has lived up to our expectations. The JWST has
shown us things about the early Universe we never anticipated.

Some of those results are forcing a rewrite of astronomy textbooks.

<
https://www.universetoday.com/167269/the-jwst-is-re-writing-astronomy-textbooks/
>

Quotes:

The Early Universe is one of the JWST?s primary scientific targets. Its
infrared capabilities allow it to see the light from ancient galaxies with
greater acuity than any other telescope. The telescope was designed to
directly address confounding questions about the high-redshift Universe.

The following three broad questions are foundational issues in cosmology
that the JWST is addressing.
What are the Physical Properties of the Earliest Galaxies?
What is the Nature of Active Galactic Nuclei in Early Galaxies?
When and How Did the Early Universe Become Ionized?
The JWST is not even halfway through its mission and has already
transformed our understanding of the Universe?s first one billion years. It
was built to address questions around the Epoch of Reionization, the first
black holes, and the first galaxies and stars. There?s definitely much more
to come. Who knows what the sum total of its contributions will be?
---------------------------------------

BillK
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Jun  6 14:13:25 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024 07:13:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
Message-ID: <007901dab81b$b3799b50$1a6cd1f0$@rainier66.com>

 

This article is three weeks old, but I didn't hear about it at the time.  It
is behind a paywall, but says that publishers have been flooded with fake
papers generated by AI:

 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/science/academic-studies-research-paper-mills-journals-p
ublishing-f5a3d4bc?st=7coxnydp5togwhy
<https://www.wsj.com/science/academic-studies-research-paper-mills-journals-
publishing-f5a3d4bc?st=7coxnydp5togwhy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink>
&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

 


Flood of Fake Science Forces Multiple Journal Closures


Wiley to shutter 19 more journals, some tainted by fraud


 

 

By Nidhi Subbaraman <https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nidhi-subbaraman> 

Follow

May 14, 2024 8:00 am ET

 

Fake studies have flooded the publishers of top scientific journals, leading
to thousands of retractions and millions of dollars in lost revenue. The
biggest hit has come to Wiley <https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/WLY> ,
a 217-year-old publisher based in Hoboken, N.J., which Tuesday will announce
that it is closing 19 journals, some of which were infected by large-scale
research fraud. 

In the past two years, Wiley has retracted more than 11,300 papers that
appeared compromised, according to a spokesperson, and closed four journals.
It isn't alone: At least two other publishers have retracted hundreds of
suspect papers each. Several others have pulled smaller clusters of bad
papers.  Wall Street Journal

 

 

Sheesh.  We now can't tell which of the papers is real and which are fake.  

spike

 

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From avant at sollegro.com  Thu Jun  6 16:07:07 2024
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Thu, 06 Jun 2024 09:07:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <007901dab81b$b3799b50$1a6cd1f0$@rainier66.com>
References: <007901dab81b$b3799b50$1a6cd1f0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <2402ec2a59a55f8b4431609d03adb437@sollegro.com>

On 2024-06-06 07:13, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote:
> https://www.wsj.com/science/academic-studies-research-paper-mills-journals-publishing-f5a3d4bc?st=7coxnydp5togwhy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
> 
> FLOOD OF FAKE SCIENCE FORCES MULTIPLE JOURNAL CLOSURES
> 
> WILEY TO SHUTTER 19 MORE JOURNALS, SOME TAINTED BY FRAUD
> 
> By Nidhi Subbaraman [1]
> 
> Follow
> 
> May 14, 2024 8:00 am ET
> 
> Fake studies have flooded the publishers of top scientific journals,
> leading to thousands of retractions and millions of dollars in lost
> revenue. The biggest hit has come to Wiley [2], a 217-year-old
> publisher based in Hoboken, N.J., which Tuesday will announce that it
> is closing 19 journals, some of which were infected by large-scale
> research fraud.
> 
> In the past two years, Wiley has retracted more than 11,300 papers
> that appeared compromised, according to a spokesperson, and closed
> four journals. It isn't alone: At least two other publishers have
> retracted hundreds of suspect papers each. Several others have pulled
> smaller clusters of bad papers?  Wall Street Journal
> 
> Sheesh.  We now can't tell which of the papers is real and which are
> fake.

If anybody here has read or watched the TV adaptation of "Three Body 
Problem", this almost seems like a (relatively) low-tech version of the 
Trisolaran plot to sabotage humanity's advancement in science so that we 
would be easy prey when their invasion fleet arrives.

Stuart LaForge

From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jun  6 18:51:20 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024 19:51:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <2402ec2a59a55f8b4431609d03adb437@sollegro.com>
References: <007901dab81b$b3799b50$1a6cd1f0$@rainier66.com>
 <2402ec2a59a55f8b4431609d03adb437@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjW3fstHDAzgqQKqDnUkEMn-0cRd+ymnrJR+jP3Qt6AzA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 6 Jun 2024 at 17:10, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> If anybody here has read or watched the TV adaptation of "Three Body
> Problem", this almost seems like a (relatively) low-tech version of the
> Trisolaran plot to sabotage humanity's advancement in science so that we
> would be easy prey when their invasion fleet arrives.
>
> Stuart LaForge
> _______________________________________________


There is now an AI arms race in progress. The fake paper mills use AI
to generate ever-more convincing fake research papers, While
publishers and peer reviewers use AI to try to detect AI created
papers.
The academic system is the problem. Researchers have to get many
research reports published to improve their career prospects, and
publishers and fake paper mills make money from the system.
The pressure on all concerned is tremendous.

BillK

From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jun  6 19:38:57 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024 20:38:57 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Older New Yorkers get more anti-loneliness robot pets
Message-ID: <CAL_armg_fREgc4snD7jA6gQxercWwHE2oZqenAmdFViVsh4fRw@mail.gmail.com>

June 3, 2024
NYSOFA Expands Animatronic Pet and Intergenerational Games Initiatives
to Combat Loneliness and Related Health Risks
U.S. Surgeon General Has Declared Loneliness and Isolation a Public
Health Crisis
Over 31,000 Animatronic Pets Delivered to Isolated Older New Yorkers
Data Shows Pets Help Reduce Loneliness, Isolation and Pain.

<https://aging.ny.gov/news/nysofa-expands-animatronic-pet-and-intergenerational-games-initiatives-combat-loneliness-and>

Quotes:
The New York State Office for the Aging (NYSOFA) today announced it is
launching phase 6 of its animatronic pet initiative and phase 2 of its
intergenerational game project in partnership with Ageless Innovation,
delivering 4,725 animatronic pets and games to older adults through
New York State?s aging network. Since 2018, NYSOFA has distributed
31,500 animatronic pets to older adults who are socially isolated and
lonely ? a program that has since been replicated in over 30 states.

Community Health Center of the North Country Program Director Susan
Schrader said, ?I have seen first-hand the power of these pets in the
hands of lonely older adults. One individual immediately comes to
mind: a 97-year-old woman with well-established dementia. While well
cared for at home, she exhibited boredom and confusion, spending many
hours in front of a TV that she couldn?t see because of her condition.
She received an animatronic cat while on hospice care ? and it was
transformational. Protective and nurturing of her newfound companion,
she petted it, tended to its paws, and talked to it every time it
meowed. That is the power of pets.?
-----------------------

BillK


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Fri Jun  7 10:05:08 2024
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 2024 12:05:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>

I have been conspicuously absent from the transhumanist mailgroups scene
for years now, owing to professional and academic engagements, and to my
wish to concentrate on social networks instead. But I take the opportunity
of a long interview on transhumanism I recently gave to a (somewhat)
underground Italian Webzine for a comeback, in view also of the fact that
in the meantime linguistic barriers have been lowered, if not eliminated.

The title is "Il transumanismo spiegato agli italiani", and the text can be
found here:

https://ilnemico.it/il-transumanesimo-spiegato-agli-italiani/

Enjoy! And of course feel free to let me have your comments, if any. :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From tcporco at gmail.com  Fri Jun  7 16:33:41 2024
From: tcporco at gmail.com (Travis Porco)
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 2024 09:33:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
Message-ID: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>

>On Thu, 6 Jun 2024 at 17:10, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
><extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> If anybody here has read or watched the TV adaptation of "Three Body
>> Problem", this almost seems like a (relatively) low-tech version of the
>> Trisolaran plot to sabotage humanity's advancement in science so that we
>> would be easy prey when their invasion fleet arrives.

>> Stuart LaForge
>> _______________________________________________

>There is now an AI arms race in progress. The fake paper mills use AI
>to generate ever-more convincing fake research papers, While
>publishers and peer reviewers use AI to try to detect AI created
>papers.
>The academic system is the problem. Researchers have to get many
>research reports published to improve their career prospects, and
>publishers and fake paper mills make money from the system.
>The pressure on all concerned is tremendous.

>BillK

Part of the problem is reviewing--there is no other area
in which we require on anonymous, unpaid, unaccountable people
for high quality work.  The scientific system can be overhauled
to raise the value of reviewing.

Moreover it is ultimately based on trust.  There might be
nothing that can be done to tell from the written paper that no data
were ever collected.  Perhaps the journals could conduct
random audits of labs. Their whole value added is in large
part quality assurance.

Obviously severe penalties for falsifying data are needed,
but may not be enough.

--tcp

From natasha at natashavita-more.com  Fri Jun  7 18:45:57 2024
From: natasha at natashavita-more.com (Natasha natashavita-more.com)
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 2024 18:45:57 +0000
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <SA1PR22MB5294390F6C739662592C855487FB2@SA1PR22MB5294.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>

Hi Stefano,

Seems pretty much aligned with my thinking. ??

Ciao,
Natasha

________________________________
From: euro-transhumanists at googlegroups.com <euro-transhumanists at googlegroups.com> on behalf of Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, June 7, 2024 3:05 AM
To: Euro-transhumanists <euro-transhumanists at googlegroups.com>; ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>; Ada Cattaneo <adel.cattaneo at gmail.com>
Subject: New Interview on Transhumanism

I have been conspicuously absent from the transhumanist mailgroups scene for years now, owing to professional and academic engagements, and to my wish to concentrate on social networks instead. But I take the opportunity of a long interview on transhumanism I recently gave to a (somewhat) underground Italian Webzine for a comeback, in view also of the fact that in the meantime linguistic barriers have been lowered, if not eliminated.

The title is "Il transumanismo spiegato agli italiani", and the text can be found here:

https://ilnemico.it/il-transumanesimo-spiegato-agli-italiani/

Enjoy! And of course feel free to let me have your comments, if any. :-)

--
Stefano Vaj
--

---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Euro-transhumanists" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to euro-transhumanists+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com<mailto:euro-transhumanists+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com>.
To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/euro-transhumanists/CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY%3DLTTYZuqTYqc%3DVuaDo7hnZVb%2BMH5fA%40mail.gmail.com<https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/euro-transhumanists/CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY%3DLTTYZuqTYqc%3DVuaDo7hnZVb%2BMH5fA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.
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From efc at swisscows.email  Sat Jun  8 10:04:44 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 12:04:44 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>



On Fri, 7 Jun 2024, Travis Porco via extropy-chat wrote:

>> On Thu, 6 Jun 2024 at 17:10, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>> If anybody here has read or watched the TV adaptation of "Three Body
>>> Problem", this almost seems like a (relatively) low-tech version of the
>>> Trisolaran plot to sabotage humanity's advancement in science so that we
>>> would be easy prey when their invasion fleet arrives.
>
>>> Stuart LaForge
>>> _______________________________________________
>
>> There is now an AI arms race in progress. The fake paper mills use AI
>> to generate ever-more convincing fake research papers, While
>> publishers and peer reviewers use AI to try to detect AI created
>> papers.
>> The academic system is the problem. Researchers have to get many
>> research reports published to improve their career prospects, and
>> publishers and fake paper mills make money from the system.
>> The pressure on all concerned is tremendous.
>
>> BillK
>
> Part of the problem is reviewing--there is no other area
> in which we require on anonymous, unpaid, unaccountable people
> for high quality work.  The scientific system can be overhauled
> to raise the value of reviewing.
>
> Moreover it is ultimately based on trust.  There might be
> nothing that can be done to tell from the written paper that no data
> were ever collected.  Perhaps the journals could conduct
> random audits of labs. Their whole value added is in large
> part quality assurance.
>
> Obviously severe penalties for falsifying data are needed,
> but may not be enough.
>
> --tcp
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Maybe time to learn from how science is done at corporations? Would that 
improve things? I'm no scientist so I would be interested in hearing from 
the actual scientists on this list how you would fix the problem in an 
ideal world.

Best regards,
Daniel



From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jun  8 14:53:09 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 10:53:09 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 6:11?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Maybe time to learn from how science is done at corporations? Would that
> improve things? I'm no scientist so I would be interested in hearing from
> the actual scientists on this list how you would fix the problem in an
> ideal world.
>

Depends on the corporation, but I would not call typical corporate science
"an ideal world".

Science in corps is generally done for profit: someone thinks that money
can be had by exploiting a certain phenomena in a certain way.  Typically
this is far closer to "technology" than "science", or at the very least is
"applied science" rather than "basic science".  In most cases one needs to
establish a business case before significant resources - money, or things
that cost money such as on-the-clock employee time - can be spent
investigating an idea.  This is of course hard to do when the particulars
of a phenomena are unknown, while if they are well known, there might not
be much science left to be done.

And then there is the potential for corporate politics to interfere.  A
famous example actually comes from communism but is in the same spirit:
vast resources were spent trying to prove Lyseknoism right, leading to a
snowballing sunk cost fallacy that sucked in more resources despite the
evidence it was wrong.  Indeed, much of Soviet-era science can be seen as a
version of corporate science, trying to either prove those in power right
or to win more resources for the collective, with success not always
honestly judged.

One reason why small businesses are promoted so much in the US for doing
science is that there is less room for this sort of thing.  The business
either produces results or it does not; there is in theory supposed to be
no political connection between the doers and the evaluators, so the
evaluators have nothing to judge except actual results.  In practice,
corruption erodes this somewhat but it does work to some extent.

Anyone interested in this subject would do well to look up the Small
Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programs of many of the federal
departments.  https://www.sbir.gov/about is a good place to start.
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From avant at sollegro.com  Sat Jun  8 16:28:38 2024
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 08 Jun 2024 09:28:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <9edaaf34f33bcd1e241d285f317092fe@sollegro.com>

On 2024-06-07 03:05, Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat wrote:
> I have been conspicuously absent from the transhumanist mailgroups
> scene for years now, owing to professional and academic engagements,
> and to my wish to concentrate on social networks instead. But I take
> the opportunity of a long interview on transhumanism I recently gave
> to a (somewhat) underground Italian Webzine for a comeback, in view
> also of the fact that in the meantime linguistic barriers have been
> lowered, if not eliminated.
> 
> The title is "Il transumanismo spiegato agli italiani", and the text
> can be found here:
> 
> https://ilnemico.it/il-transumanesimo-spiegato-agli-italiani/
> 
> Enjoy! And of course feel free to let me have your comments, if any.
> :-)

Welcome back, Stefano. :) I liked the interview, especially the AIT's 
take on transhumanism. I also thought the webzine was a good fit for it. 
It is well-designed and stylish.

Stuart LaForge




From efc at swisscows.email  Sat Jun  8 16:43:07 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 18:43:07 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>

> On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 6:11?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       Maybe time to learn from how science is done at corporations? Would that
>       improve things? I'm no scientist so I would be interested in hearing from
>       the actual scientists on this list how you would fix the problem in an
>       ideal world.
> 
> 
> Depends on the corporation, but I would not call typical corporate science "an ideal world".
...
> One reason why small businesses are promoted so much in the US for
> doing science is that there is less room for this sort of thing.? The
> business either produces results or it does not; there is in theory
> supposed to be no political connection between the doers and the
> evaluators, so the evaluators have nothing to judge except actual
> results.? In practice, corruption erodes this somewhat but it does
> work to some extent.
> 
> Anyone interested in this subject would do well to look up the Small
> Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programs of many of the federal
> departments.??https://www.sbir.gov/about is a good place to start.

Thank you Adrian. Are the small businesses able to make meaningful
contributions? The reason I asked about the corporate is based on two
things...

1. I have some hazy memories of TI and IBM engaging in basic science
either by themselves or together with universities, but perhaps this is
no longer the case or exceptionally rare. I don't know.

2. I think that doing modern basic science is expensive and perhaps
beyond the means and capabilities of small companies.

What do you think?

Best regards, 
Daniel

From interzone at gmail.com  Sat Jun  8 18:01:08 2024
From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 14:01:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] A list of AI papers that may be of interest...
Message-ID: <CAJrqPH_SzU4HNy76ffQXoAEB628sLqg_h0oVYm9_3pxdPGgVxQ@mail.gmail.com>

Someone asked the head of OpenAI for a list of papers to get up to speed on
the state of the art in AI.   It can be found at the link below for those
interested, and he argues if you are able to digest all of them, you will
be in a good place to understand ~90+% of the state of the art:

Ilya 30u30 (arc.net)
<https://arc.net/folder/D0472A20-9C20-4D3F-B145-D2865C0A9FEE>
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jun  8 18:05:14 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 14:05:14 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 12:44?PM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Thank you Adrian. Are the small businesses able to make meaningful
> contributions?


Most don't, but a few do.  Which ones and how many depending on how you
define "meaningful".


> 1. I have some hazy memories of TI and IBM engaging in basic science
> either by themselves or together with universities, but perhaps this is
> no longer the case or exceptionally rare. I don't know.
>

They still do some of that.  It's more common for the universities to take
the lead with the corps assisting.

There are also corps that have essentially become organs of the government,
to either do research or supervise other research efforts, much like
mitochondria incorporated into a cell.  The Aerospace Corporation is a good
example of this.  In theory they can be replaced; ULA being slowly replaced
by SpaceX is an example of this, with implications for how SpaceX might
evolve if and when ULA fully gives up the ghost.


> 2. I think that doing modern basic science is expensive and perhaps
> beyond the means and capabilities of small companies.
>

In many cases you are correct.  One of the challenges posed to
entrepreneurs who want to pursue basic science is how to do it affordably.
I count myself in that category, particularly on some of my current efforts.

(For example: I may be pursuing a PhD, formally beginning at some point in
2025.  My preference would be to finally publish that vacuum balloon idea,
which I think I have hinted at before, as my dissertation topic.  If I
can't commercialize it myself, I can at least publish it openly for all the
world to benefit from - which is generally what's needed for a PhD
dissertation anyway.  What makes it an example here is that I might be able
to tap certain grants to pay tuition and bills from this project, though I
would need to stay on top of budgeting.  The grants are a fixed amount - I
don't get more if it happens to take longer - which is one of the reasons I
would aim to get it done in 3 years, if I can secure the grants in the
first place.  If I can't secure them, this particular plan won't happen, at
least not in this form.  An "externally funded", as the university terms
it, student running their own project is unusual, but happens often enough
that there are established procedures.)

On the other hand, low-budget "citizen science" has long been a thing, with
roots going back well past the 20th century.  Many small business science
projects are essentially citizen science, particularly when the business is
a non-profit.
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From efc at swisscows.email  Sat Jun  8 20:34:55 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 22:34:55 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>



On Sat, 8 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> (For example: I may be pursuing a PhD, formally beginning at some
> point in 2025.? My preference would be to finally publish that vacuum
> balloon idea, which I think I have hinted at before, as my

What is your vacuum balloon idea and how can it be commericalized?

> dissertation topic.? If I can't commercialize it myself, I can at
> least publish it openly for all the world to benefit from - which is
> generally what's needed for a PhD dissertation anyway.? What makes it
> an example here is that I might be able to tap certain grants to pay
> tuition and bills from this project, though I would need?to stay on
> top of budgeting.? The grants are a fixed amount - I don't get more if
> it happens to take longer - which is one of the reasons I would aim to
> get it done in 3 years, if I can secure the grants in the first
> place.? If I can't secure them, this particular plan won't happen, at
> least not in this form.? An "externally funded", as the university
> terms it, student running their own project is unusual, but happens
> often enough that there are established procedures.)

Is it possible to do a Ph.D. in only 3 years? In sweden it will take you
at least 5 due to demands of having to teach a certain amount of hours
as well.

I often thought about if I should pursue a Ph.D. as a hobby, but 5 years
is not gonna happen.

If 3 years is possible, that might make it possible given the right
arrangements and a flexible school.

> On the other hand, low-budget "citizen science" has long been a thing,
> with roots going back well past the 20th century.? Many small business
> science projects are essentially citizen science, particularly when
> the business is a non-profit.

Ahh... this was my follow up question you anticipated. If any meaningful
contributions in the 21st century have been made by amateurs? The idea
of the noble amateur making a remarkable discovery in his home
laboratory has a certain romantic charm! But maybe it would only be
possible today in "budget" sciences such a computer science were you can
do a lot of experiments and thinking, and rent resources by the second
if you need them.

I wonder if there are any modern superstars of say, philosophy, who
(like many philosophers of old) do not have a degree in philosophy or
an affiliation with a university?

Best regards, 
Daniel

From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jun  8 22:12:13 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 23:12:13 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh8JJ5v7RXTAu7Ub_uBbUvFqf59bCfdyB4yEf51V8vqZg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, 7 Jun 2024 at 11:08, Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I have been conspicuously absent from the transhumanist mailgroups scene
> for years now, owing to professional and academic engagements, and to my
> wish to concentrate on social networks instead. But I take the opportunity
> of a long interview on transhumanism I recently gave to a (somewhat)
> underground Italian Webzine for a comeback, in view also of the fact that
> in the meantime linguistic barriers have been lowered, if not eliminated.
>
> The title is "Il transumanismo spiegato agli italiani", and the text can
> be found here:
>
> https://ilnemico.it/il-transumanesimo-spiegato-agli-italiani/
>
> Enjoy! And of course feel free to let me have your comments, if any. :-)
> --
> Stefano Vaj
> _______________________________________________
>


I asked an AI to summarize the discussion.
BillK

*Answer:*

*Transhumanism Explained to Italians*

The article ?Il Transumanesimo Spiegato agli Italiani? discusses the
concept of transhumanism and its implications. Here is a detailed summary
of the points discussed in the article:

*1. Introduction to Transhumanism* The article begins by introducing the
concept of transhumanism, which is a philosophical and cultural movement
that aims to enhance human capabilities through the use of technology. It
explores how transhumanists believe in using scientific advancements to
overcome human limitations and improve various aspects of life.

*2. Evolution of Transhumanism* The article delves into the history and
evolution of transhumanism, tracing its roots back to ancient times when
humans first started using tools to enhance their abilities. It discusses
how transhumanism has evolved over the years, especially with the rapid
advancements in technology in recent decades.

*3. Key Concepts of Transhumanism* The article highlights some key concepts
associated with transhumanism, such as biohacking, cyborgs, artificial
intelligence, and genetic engineering. It explains how these technologies
are being used to push the boundaries of what it means to be human and how
they have the potential to revolutionize society.

*4. Ethical Considerations* The article also addresses the ethical
considerations surrounding transhumanism, such as concerns about
inequality, privacy issues, and potential risks associated with enhancing
human capabilities through technology. It emphasizes the importance of
having ethical discussions and regulations in place to ensure that
technological advancements are used responsibly.

*5. Future Implications* Lastly, the article explores the potential future
implications of transhumanism on society, discussing how it could impact
various aspects of life, including healthcare, work, education, and even
our understanding of what it means to be human. It raises thought-provoking
questions about the future direction of humanity in a world where
technology plays an increasingly significant role.

Overall, ?Il Transumanesimo Spiegato agli Italiani? provides an insightful
overview of transhumanism, its evolution, key concepts, ethical
considerations, and future implications for society.
------------------------------
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jun  9 03:09:27 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 23:09:27 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 4:36?PM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> What is your vacuum balloon idea and how can it be commericalized?
>

A vacuum balloon is a stiff balloon, strong enough to contain vacuum
against 1 atmosphere, l9ght enough to float from the mass of the air
displaced.  The idea's been around since the 1600s but no one's found
structure and materials that can quite pull it off.  It was once widely
thought impossible, but there've been studies recently getting close.  I
think I have the answer - or at least, an answer.

If it works, it would be a far less expensive and better performing
alternative to helium balloons, so it would make airships less costly -
both to build and to operate - and give advantages, such as ability to
repair in the air without carrying spare lifting gas (since one can
manufacture vacuum on the spot) and better tying down in the face of
windstorms (they can dismiss the vacuum and be in no danger of floating
away, then remanufacture the vacuum afterward).  Commercialization is
straightforward if I can get an airship manufacturer interested...which is
the step I've not been able to do yet.  I'm more of an engineer than a
salesperson.

Is it possible to do a Ph.D. in only 3 years?


Heh.  This takes some finangling.  It's usually supposed to take at least
4-5 years (and I've heard that some have taken over a decade), but I did my
BS in 3 years and my MS in 9 months.  I'm looking to apply the same tricks
here; see below.

I have reason to believe that certain others have done a PhD in 3 years
before, even without a relevant MS (done before the PhD and not counted as
part of the PhD) shaving a year or two off the program.


> In sweden it will take you
> at least 5 due to demands of having to teach a certain amount of hours
> as well.
>

How many hours can you teach, maximum, per quarter or semester?  Can you
teach some over summer?  Can you get credit reducing this requirement from
other things you have done, particularly previous academic work?  Is the
length set by anything other than literally just the teaching hours?  Will
you be spending a significant amount of time on anything else during your
program, such as a job to pay the bills?

As I understand it - I have to research this a little more - the university
I am considering, North Carolina State University (Mechanical and Aerospace
Engineering), has three primary requirements:
1) A PhD dissertation and defense.  No specific time requirement; it's
merely uncommon to write fast.  I have decades of experience in writing
fast.  I'm also starting from a basic writeup of the math, which I suspect
will give me a significant head start on the dissertation.
2) 72 credit hours.  No apparent maximum credit hours per semester.  9
credit hours per semester (including summer) times 8 semesters comes to
72.  Most classes appear to be 3 credit hours, meaning I would be taking 3
classes per semester, which I should easily be able to handle.  There are
some further requirements as to the exact distribution, for instance a
certain number must come from the "class" (MAE 895) that represents working
on the dissertation and defense.  It is not yet known if I can transfer in
any from my MS or BS work; I am planning for the case that I can't, but any
that I can will reduce this.
3) At least 8 semesters.  This is normally intended to be
Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring, but I asked and
Fall-Spring-Summer-Fall-Spring-Summer-Fall-Spring is allowed.  I may tack
on another Summer to the start or end, if it turns out I can only take 6
credit hours during a Summer semester (so the credit hours, rather than
9+9+9+9+9+9+9+9, would be 6+9+9+6+9+9+6+9+9).

Whatever university you might consider doing it at, apply this same
analysis.  There is no teaching requirement in my case, but I suspect that
might be accelerated and/or reduced in your case in the same manner as #2
above.  It will not always be possible at every program at every
university, but regardless of university and program, it is not possible
save by accident if you do not investigate and plan in advance.

If you have ever written some long work, such as a book or a long article,
you probably know the importance of starting with an outline before you
start writing.  The same principle applies here.  (Doubly so: outline your
intended path before applying to the program, and outline your dissertation
before writing it.)


> If 3 years is possible, that might make it possible given the right
> arrangements and a flexible school.
>

Indeed.  Start by reading what the university and department you are
looking at, publish online about their requirements.  Then, talk to some
faculty and staff there.

When you do so, ask about suitable dissertation topics.  As I understand
it, usually any PhD topic has to be something the university already has
funding to let you pursue - or something that it doesn't take much funding
to pursue, often something along the lines of what your dissertation
advisor is investigating anyway.  Constructing a vacuum balloon (which is
not something anyone at NCSU appears to be pursuing at this time) will take
money for a prototype - possibly more than the tuition, thus why getting
grants to fund everything is more critical in my case, but if I can supply
that funding to the university then I just have to make a case for academic
suitability.  (In NCSU's case, their criteria is that it "advances the
research".  Building something once thought impossible and still not yet
accomplished, and publishing exactly how I did it along with rigorous math
showing how it all works, should hopefully qualify.  Even if my theory
turns out to be wrong, publishing proof that the particular approach I am
investigating can not work - with emphasis on the proof - should also
qualify.)  Whether you're bringing the funding to let you pick a topic
(within bounds of what the university finds acceptable), or you find some
agreeable topic that a faculty member is willing to advise you on, knowing
what you want to focus on can help lay out your coursework and let you
start your research before you even formally apply to a PhD program.


> Ahh... this was my follow up question you anticipated. If any meaningful
> contributions in the 21st century have been made by amateurs?
>

For this, I defer to
https://www.google.com/search?q=amateur+science+breakthrough+21st+century
.  The answer appears to be "yes".
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Jun  9 03:21:42 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 20:21:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] postage due
Message-ID: <008401daba1c$26f12740$74d375c0$@rainier66.com>

 

Funny: I sent eight graduation cards, the size appropriate to include US
currency.  I put a crisp fifty in each and mailed all eight.  Today four of
them came back postage due.  Four of the eight identical cards.

 

I have a milligram scale at home, so I weighed them.  14 grams, about half
an ounce.  A forever stamp carries up to 1 ounce anywhere in the USA.  These
were all half an ounce and half of them came back stamped postage due.

 

OK then.  I put a second forever stamp on there and dropped them back into
the post box.

 

Final funny: exactly one of the four had written on it: Amount Due:   $4.22

 

{8^D

 

It would be one weird thing if a machine had somehow screwed up, but it was
handwritten on the card envelope: $4.22

 

Please if anyone here is into hard drugs, don't go to work at the post
office.  We already have one too many of those working there.

 

spike

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From efc at swisscows.email  Sun Jun  9 09:48:50 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 11:48:50 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] postage due
In-Reply-To: <008401daba1c$26f12740$74d375c0$@rainier66.com>
References: <008401daba1c$26f12740$74d375c0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <481b159d-3111-17d1-2684-1058edad19af@swisscows.email>



On Sat, 8 Jun 2024, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote:

> Funny: I sent eight graduation cards, the size appropriate to include
> US currency.? I put a crisp fifty in each and mailed all eight.? Today
> four of them came back postage due.? Four of the eight identical
> cards.
...
> Please if anyone here is into hard drugs, don?t go to work at the post
> office.? We already have one too many of those working there.

This seems to be a trend. In sweden the government privatized the post
office, and due to decreasing demand, they are every year lobbying the
politicians for the right to deliver mail less often. I think it's now
every 3 days or so, and I'm sure they want to get approved to only have
to deliver once a week or so.

I imagine that this also limits the pool of available employees and that
perhaps not the brightest and the best look for their future at the post
office. =/

Best regards, 
Daniel

From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Jun  9 12:50:55 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 05:50:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] postage due
In-Reply-To: <481b159d-3111-17d1-2684-1058edad19af@swisscows.email>
References: <008401daba1c$26f12740$74d375c0$@rainier66.com>
 <481b159d-3111-17d1-2684-1058edad19af@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <003c01daba6b$ab94e5a0$02beb0e0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
efc--- via extropy-chat

...
>>... Please if anyone here is into hard drugs, don?t go to work at the post

> office.? We already have one too many of those working there.


>...I imagine that this also limits the pool of available employees and that
perhaps not the brightest and the best look for their future at the post
office. =/

Best regards,
Daniel



Heh, cool, thx Daniel.  Our post office improved noticeably after they were
given some autonomy and had to compete with FedEx and the other commercial
carriers.  I cannot explain the bizarre $4.22 postage due, but in retrospect
I suppose I hafta give them grudging overall approval.

As for 3 day delivery, that would work here, because of low reliance on
paper mail, which is the bulk of what the US post does.  Anything that goes
thru US post has a legal status too: if you send fraudulent letters thru
FedEx, the liability structure is completely different than if you send it
US Post.  FedEx can (I think) legally look in your mail but the US Post
cannot.  Irony: the US Post is motivated to do that, because they are
federal employees but FedEx doesn't care what you send.  

Scenario: FedEx guy says, Oy vey, what is so heavy in this thing?  (Opens
package)  Oh ok, ammo, going to California where buying it is a pain in the
ass.  Other FedEx guy: Hey does he have any .223center fire in there?  First
guy: Nope, just a bunch of 30 cal and some 9 mm, with some lithium
batteries, grenades, fireworks and such.  Second guy: Meh OK, I am all
stocked up on that stuff, tape it up, send it on.

They can't legally do that at the US Post.

spike







From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sun Jun  9 17:47:37 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 10:47:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4Ey9ZVKLzDCWhsm02m_+NNDewfbBfvHEA_-KZ05napBg@mail.gmail.com>

" The idea's been around since the 1600s but no one's found structure
and materials that can quite pull it off.  It was once widely thought
impossible, but there've been studies recently getting close.  I think
I have the answer - or at least, an answer."

A long time ago I saw an analysis of this which used concrete for the
shell.  As I recall, the concrete was 6 inches thick and the whole
thing was a mile in diameter.

Keith

Best wishes,

Keith

On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 8:10?PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 4:36?PM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> What is your vacuum balloon idea and how can it be commericalized?
>
>
> A vacuum balloon is a stiff balloon, strong enough to contain vacuum against 1 atmosphere, l9ght enough to float from the mass of the air displaced.  The idea's been around since the 1600s but no one's found structure and materials that can quite pull it off.  It was once widely thought impossible, but there've been studies recently getting close.  I think I have the answer - or at least, an answer.
>
> If it works, it would be a far less expensive and better performing alternative to helium balloons, so it would make airships less costly - both to build and to operate - and give advantages, such as ability to repair in the air without carrying spare lifting gas (since one can manufacture vacuum on the spot) and better tying down in the face of windstorms (they can dismiss the vacuum and be in no danger of floating away, then remanufacture the vacuum afterward).  Commercialization is straightforward if I can get an airship manufacturer interested...which is the step I've not been able to do yet.  I'm more of an engineer than a salesperson.
>
>> Is it possible to do a Ph.D. in only 3 years?
>
>
> Heh.  This takes some finangling.  It's usually supposed to take at least 4-5 years (and I've heard that some have taken over a decade), but I did my BS in 3 years and my MS in 9 months.  I'm looking to apply the same tricks here; see below.
>
> I have reason to believe that certain others have done a PhD in 3 years before, even without a relevant MS (done before the PhD and not counted as part of the PhD) shaving a year or two off the program.
>
>>
>> In sweden it will take you
>> at least 5 due to demands of having to teach a certain amount of hours
>> as well.
>
>
> How many hours can you teach, maximum, per quarter or semester?  Can you teach some over summer?  Can you get credit reducing this requirement from other things you have done, particularly previous academic work?  Is the length set by anything other than literally just the teaching hours?  Will you be spending a significant amount of time on anything else during your program, such as a job to pay the bills?
>
> As I understand it - I have to research this a little more - the university I am considering, North Carolina State University (Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering), has three primary requirements:
> 1) A PhD dissertation and defense.  No specific time requirement; it's merely uncommon to write fast.  I have decades of experience in writing fast.  I'm also starting from a basic writeup of the math, which I suspect will give me a significant head start on the dissertation.
> 2) 72 credit hours.  No apparent maximum credit hours per semester.  9 credit hours per semester (including summer) times 8 semesters comes to 72.  Most classes appear to be 3 credit hours, meaning I would be taking 3 classes per semester, which I should easily be able to handle.  There are some further requirements as to the exact distribution, for instance a certain number must come from the "class" (MAE 895) that represents working on the dissertation and defense.  It is not yet known if I can transfer in any from my MS or BS work; I am planning for the case that I can't, but any that I can will reduce this.
> 3) At least 8 semesters.  This is normally intended to be Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring, but I asked and Fall-Spring-Summer-Fall-Spring-Summer-Fall-Spring is allowed.  I may tack on another Summer to the start or end, if it turns out I can only take 6 credit hours during a Summer semester (so the credit hours, rather than 9+9+9+9+9+9+9+9, would be 6+9+9+6+9+9+6+9+9).
>
> Whatever university you might consider doing it at, apply this same analysis.  There is no teaching requirement in my case, but I suspect that might be accelerated and/or reduced in your case in the same manner as #2 above.  It will not always be possible at every program at every university, but regardless of university and program, it is not possible save by accident if you do not investigate and plan in advance.
>
> If you have ever written some long work, such as a book or a long article, you probably know the importance of starting with an outline before you start writing.  The same principle applies here.  (Doubly so: outline your intended path before applying to the program, and outline your dissertation before writing it.)
>
>>
>> If 3 years is possible, that might make it possible given the right
>> arrangements and a flexible school.
>
>
> Indeed.  Start by reading what the university and department you are looking at, publish online about their requirements.  Then, talk to some faculty and staff there.
>
> When you do so, ask about suitable dissertation topics.  As I understand it, usually any PhD topic has to be something the university already has funding to let you pursue - or something that it doesn't take much funding to pursue, often something along the lines of what your dissertation advisor is investigating anyway.  Constructing a vacuum balloon (which is not something anyone at NCSU appears to be pursuing at this time) will take money for a prototype - possibly more than the tuition, thus why getting grants to fund everything is more critical in my case, but if I can supply that funding to the university then I just have to make a case for academic suitability.  (In NCSU's case, their criteria is that it "advances the research".  Building something once thought impossible and still not yet accomplished, and publishing exactly how I did it along with rigorous math showing how it all works, should hopefully qualify.  Even if my theory turns out to be wrong, publishing proof that the particular approach I am investigating can not work - with emphasis on the proof - should also qualify.)  Whether you're bringing the funding to let you pick a topic (within bounds of what the university finds acceptable), or you find some agreeable topic that a faculty member is willing to advise you on, knowing what you want to focus on can help lay out your coursework and let you start your research before you even formally apply to a PhD program.
>
>>
>> Ahh... this was my follow up question you anticipated. If any meaningful
>> contributions in the 21st century have been made by amateurs?
>
>
> For this, I defer to https://www.google.com/search?q=amateur+science+breakthrough+21st+century .  The answer appears to be "yes".
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jun  9 18:05:25 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 14:05:25 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB4Ey9ZVKLzDCWhsm02m_+NNDewfbBfvHEA_-KZ05napBg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 1:48?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:

> A long time ago I saw an analysis of this which used concrete for the
> shell.  As I recall, the concrete was 6 inches thick and the whole
> thing was a mile in diameter.
>

Yeah, I'm going for a more practical size.  Something that would work well
at the size of modern airship balloons.
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Jun  9 18:40:27 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 13:40:27 -0500
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbak38yg6M4ERUezjEWW_T_NbnNrMUKOQ-GiiMWmjbLCg@mail.gmail.com>

I got my Ph.D. in basically three years, mostly because I was not required
to do any teaching or anything else (in fact I was required not to).  That
turned out not to be the benefit it seems to be.  bill w

On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 10:11?PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 4:36?PM efc--- via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> What is your vacuum balloon idea and how can it be commericalized?
>>
>
> A vacuum balloon is a stiff balloon, strong enough to contain vacuum
> against 1 atmosphere, l9ght enough to float from the mass of the air
> displaced.  The idea's been around since the 1600s but no one's found
> structure and materials that can quite pull it off.  It was once widely
> thought impossible, but there've been studies recently getting close.  I
> think I have the answer - or at least, an answer.
>
> If it works, it would be a far less expensive and better performing
> alternative to helium balloons, so it would make airships less costly -
> both to build and to operate - and give advantages, such as ability to
> repair in the air without carrying spare lifting gas (since one can
> manufacture vacuum on the spot) and better tying down in the face of
> windstorms (they can dismiss the vacuum and be in no danger of floating
> away, then remanufacture the vacuum afterward).  Commercialization is
> straightforward if I can get an airship manufacturer interested...which is
> the step I've not been able to do yet.  I'm more of an engineer than a
> salesperson.
>
> Is it possible to do a Ph.D. in only 3 years?
>
>
> Heh.  This takes some finangling.  It's usually supposed to take at least
> 4-5 years (and I've heard that some have taken over a decade), but I did my
> BS in 3 years and my MS in 9 months.  I'm looking to apply the same tricks
> here; see below.
>
> I have reason to believe that certain others have done a PhD in 3 years
> before, even without a relevant MS (done before the PhD and not counted as
> part of the PhD) shaving a year or two off the program.
>
>
>> In sweden it will take you
>> at least 5 due to demands of having to teach a certain amount of hours
>> as well.
>>
>
> How many hours can you teach, maximum, per quarter or semester?  Can you
> teach some over summer?  Can you get credit reducing this requirement from
> other things you have done, particularly previous academic work?  Is the
> length set by anything other than literally just the teaching hours?  Will
> you be spending a significant amount of time on anything else during your
> program, such as a job to pay the bills?
>
> As I understand it - I have to research this a little more - the
> university I am considering, North Carolina State University (Mechanical
> and Aerospace Engineering), has three primary requirements:
> 1) A PhD dissertation and defense.  No specific time requirement; it's
> merely uncommon to write fast.  I have decades of experience in writing
> fast.  I'm also starting from a basic writeup of the math, which I suspect
> will give me a significant head start on the dissertation.
> 2) 72 credit hours.  No apparent maximum credit hours per semester.  9
> credit hours per semester (including summer) times 8 semesters comes to
> 72.  Most classes appear to be 3 credit hours, meaning I would be taking 3
> classes per semester, which I should easily be able to handle.  There are
> some further requirements as to the exact distribution, for instance a
> certain number must come from the "class" (MAE 895) that represents working
> on the dissertation and defense.  It is not yet known if I can transfer in
> any from my MS or BS work; I am planning for the case that I can't, but any
> that I can will reduce this.
> 3) At least 8 semesters.  This is normally intended to be
> Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring-Fall-Spring, but I asked and
> Fall-Spring-Summer-Fall-Spring-Summer-Fall-Spring is allowed.  I may tack
> on another Summer to the start or end, if it turns out I can only take 6
> credit hours during a Summer semester (so the credit hours, rather than
> 9+9+9+9+9+9+9+9, would be 6+9+9+6+9+9+6+9+9).
>
> Whatever university you might consider doing it at, apply this same
> analysis.  There is no teaching requirement in my case, but I suspect that
> might be accelerated and/or reduced in your case in the same manner as #2
> above.  It will not always be possible at every program at every
> university, but regardless of university and program, it is not possible
> save by accident if you do not investigate and plan in advance.
>
> If you have ever written some long work, such as a book or a long article,
> you probably know the importance of starting with an outline before you
> start writing.  The same principle applies here.  (Doubly so: outline your
> intended path before applying to the program, and outline your dissertation
> before writing it.)
>
>
>> If 3 years is possible, that might make it possible given the right
>> arrangements and a flexible school.
>>
>
> Indeed.  Start by reading what the university and department you are
> looking at, publish online about their requirements.  Then, talk to some
> faculty and staff there.
>
> When you do so, ask about suitable dissertation topics.  As I understand
> it, usually any PhD topic has to be something the university already has
> funding to let you pursue - or something that it doesn't take much funding
> to pursue, often something along the lines of what your dissertation
> advisor is investigating anyway.  Constructing a vacuum balloon (which is
> not something anyone at NCSU appears to be pursuing at this time) will take
> money for a prototype - possibly more than the tuition, thus why getting
> grants to fund everything is more critical in my case, but if I can supply
> that funding to the university then I just have to make a case for academic
> suitability.  (In NCSU's case, their criteria is that it "advances the
> research".  Building something once thought impossible and still not yet
> accomplished, and publishing exactly how I did it along with rigorous math
> showing how it all works, should hopefully qualify.  Even if my theory
> turns out to be wrong, publishing proof that the particular approach I am
> investigating can not work - with emphasis on the proof - should also
> qualify.)  Whether you're bringing the funding to let you pick a topic
> (within bounds of what the university finds acceptable), or you find some
> agreeable topic that a faculty member is willing to advise you on, knowing
> what you want to focus on can help lay out your coursework and let you
> start your research before you even formally apply to a PhD program.
>
>
>> Ahh... this was my follow up question you anticipated. If any meaningful
>> contributions in the 21st century have been made by amateurs?
>>
>
> For this, I defer to
> https://www.google.com/search?q=amateur+science+breakthrough+21st+century
> .  The answer appears to be "yes".
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sun Jun  9 19:33:02 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 12:33:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAPiwVB4Ey9ZVKLzDCWhsm02m_+NNDewfbBfvHEA_-KZ05napBg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5BVr9QapxciEpS69OnvXHBLbJjNq31QjFAAnb84KZxkg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 11:06?AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 1:48?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> A long time ago I saw an analysis of this which used concrete for the
>> shell.  As I recall, the concrete was 6 inches thick and the whole
>> thing was a mile in diameter.
>
>
> Yeah, I'm going for a more practical size.  Something that would work well at the size of modern airship balloons.

I kind of doubt that will work.  The problem is not only the vast
force trying to collapse the balloon but also the buckling of the
skin.  The mechanical engineering for such structures is well
understood.  I don't think it would be hard to work out the needed
properties.  Then you need to find materials with the requisite
strength and density.  Maybe diamond.

Not sure this justifies a PhD project.  Maybe a day with Mathematica.

And it strikes me as something I would expect to find on the net, and
when I looked:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_airship

Keith


______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jun  9 19:50:31 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 15:50:31 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5BVr9QapxciEpS69OnvXHBLbJjNq31QjFAAnb84KZxkg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNSiMuAtxvLU53XLg3F=2+cJrOc0mev2KRR87fuioyhzEQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 3:33?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 11:06?AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> > On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 1:48?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >> A long time ago I saw an analysis of this which used concrete for the
> >> shell.  As I recall, the concrete was 6 inches thick and the whole
> >> thing was a mile in diameter.
> >
> > Yeah, I'm going for a more practical size.  Something that would work
> well at the size of modern airship balloons.
>
> I kind of doubt that will work.


Not with concrete, obviously.  Part of the trick is a very specific mix of
materials (which I'm treating as a trade secret until and unless I start on
my PhD project with this as its topic, which will be no earlier than next
year even in the best case).


> Then you need to find materials with the requisite
> strength and density.  Maybe diamond.
>

It turns out that much more available materials can do it - but in a
composite, not a single material.

Not sure this justifies a PhD project.  Maybe a day with Mathematica.
>
> And it strikes me as something I would expect to find on the net, and
> when I looked:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_airship


The amount of work people have put into this, as evidenced at that link,
should show it's more than "a day with Mathematica".  Besides, the proposed
project includes actually making one.
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From postmowoods at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 01:33:13 2024
From: postmowoods at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2024 19:33:13 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Portuguese Poem
In-Reply-To: <CAKG+AHy0udPV1CHvr362EGoVB_jKeizVat7P3xm35H7EdVA5Jw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjn=ToW1HuusQMYxwYVjkL2HNnoV_aJZ59-kJdJfLhhCA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKG+AHy0udPV1CHvr362EGoVB_jKeizVat7P3xm35H7EdVA5Jw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CACBESnBou-FjUxxRAaR7ceT-RhO++w9Yb+cRCDBHT=nrVWK0jQ@mail.gmail.com>

I'm fluent in Portuguese so this caught my attention. The translation is
good. The comments are great.

I notice that when I speak in Portuguese I have a different, more engaging,
personality... reflecting my experiences while learning the language in
Brazil. I wonder if LLMs might have different personalities in different
languages too.

-Kelly

On Thu, Mar 28, 2024, 7:03 AM serafino cerulli-irelli via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Very good, Claude 3 at his best!
>
>
> <https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail> Privo
> di virus.www.avast.com
> <https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail>
> <#m_-4543554578289355671_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>
>
> On Thu, 28 Mar 2024 at 13:13, BillK via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 28 Mar 2024 at 08:15, serafino cerulli-irelli via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>>> BTW, the Portuguese saying comes from a poem by Fernando Pessoa
>>>
>>> Vive-nos a vida, n?o n?s a vida
>>> O paradoxo n?o ? meu; sou eu.
>>> Sou um espelhamento de cacos.
>>> Quantos sou eu? Sabes quem sou?
>>> Eu n?o sei. Medo de amor.
>>> Sou minha pr?pria paisagem;
>>> Assisto ? minha passagem,
>>> Como de um sonho formado sobre realidades mistas,
>>> Sinto-me m?ltiplo.
>>> Sou como um quarto com in?meros espelhos fant?sticos que torcem para
>>> reflex?es falsas, uma
>>> ?nica anterior realidade que n?o est? em nenhuma e est? em todas.
>>> Que importa o areal e a morte e a desventura
>>> Se com Deus me guardei?
>>> ? o que eu me sonhei que eterno dura,
>>> ? esse que regressarei.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -------------------------------------------
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> I asked Claude to comment on this poem, to see how he tackles poems in a
>> foreign language.  Surprisingly well, is the answer!
>> BillK
>>
>> Claude3 Opus AI
>> In this poem, Fernando Pessoa delves into the complex and paradoxical
>> nature of identity and the self. The poem is a profound reflection on the
>> fragmented and multifaceted aspects of one's being.
>>
>> The opening line, "Vive-nos a vida, n?o n?s a vida" ("Life lives us, we
>> do not live life"), suggests that life itself is the active force, and we
>> are merely the vessels through which it flows. This sets the stage for the
>> exploration of the paradoxical nature of the self that follows.
>>
>> Pessoa acknowledges that the paradox is not external to him but is an
>> integral part of his own being: "O paradoxo n?o ? meu; sou eu" ("The
>> paradox is not mine; it is me"). He describes himself as "um espelhamento
>> de cacos" ("a mirroring of shards"), indicating a fragmented and diverse
>> sense of self.
>>
>> The question "Quantos sou eu?" ("How many am I?") emphasizes the
>> multiplicity of identities within oneself. Pessoa grapples with the
>> uncertainty of self-knowledge, admitting, "Eu n?o sei" ("I don't know"),
>> and expresses a "Medo de amor" ("Fear of love"), perhaps suggesting a
>> hesitation to fully embrace or understand his own being.
>>
>> The poem then shifts to a metaphorical landscape, with Pessoa stating,
>> "Sou minha pr?pria paisagem" ("I am my own landscape"). This implies that
>> his identity is a vast and complex terrain that he observes and experiences
>> from within. He watches his own passage through this landscape, as if in a
>> dream composed of mixed realities.
>>
>> The image of a room with countless fantastic mirrors that distort
>> reflections further emphasizes the multiplicity and illusory nature of the
>> self. Pessoa feels "m?ltiplo" ("multiple"), recognizing that his true
>> reality is not found in any single reflection but is scattered across all
>> of them.
>>
>> In the final stanza, Pessoa seems to find solace in the idea of having
>> guarded himself with God. Despite the challenges of the "areal" ("sand"),
>> "morte" ("death"), and "desventura" ("misfortune"), he finds comfort in the
>> eternal nature of what he has dreamed himself to be. It is to this eternal
>> self that he believes he will return.
>>
>> The poem invites readers to contemplate the nature of identity and the
>> self. It raises questions about the unity or multiplicity of one's being,
>> the challenges of self-knowledge, and the role of the divine in shaping
>> one's sense of self.
>>
>> Questions to consider:
>> 1. How do we reconcile the seemingly paradoxical and fragmented aspects
>> of our own identities?
>> 2. In what ways do our self-perceptions and the perceptions of others
>> contribute to the complexity of our sense of self?
>> 3. How can we find stability and meaning amidst the shifting and illusory
>> nature of the self?
>> ------------------------------------
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 08:14:03 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 01:14:03 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSiMuAtxvLU53XLg3F=2+cJrOc0mev2KRR87fuioyhzEQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>

If you do study this, you might put in a paragraph about the
consequences of a large one failing.

Air isn't as dense as water, but below a modest depth, a collapsing
volume will generate more of a shock blast than the same volume of
TNT.

The consequences might be worse than one filled with hydrogen.

Keith

On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 12:51?PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 3:33?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 11:06?AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> > On Sun, Jun 9, 2024 at 1:48?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>> >> A long time ago I saw an analysis of this which used concrete for the
>> >> shell.  As I recall, the concrete was 6 inches thick and the whole
>> >> thing was a mile in diameter.
>> >
>> > Yeah, I'm going for a more practical size.  Something that would work well at the size of modern airship balloons.
>>
>> I kind of doubt that will work.
>
>
> Not with concrete, obviously.  Part of the trick is a very specific mix of materials (which I'm treating as a trade secret until and unless I start on my PhD project with this as its topic, which will be no earlier than next year even in the best case).
>
>>
>> Then you need to find materials with the requisite
>> strength and density.  Maybe diamond.
>
>
> It turns out that much more available materials can do it - but in a composite, not a single material.
>
>> Not sure this justifies a PhD project.  Maybe a day with Mathematica.
>>
>> And it strikes me as something I would expect to find on the net, and
>> when I looked:
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_airship
>
>
> The amount of work people have put into this, as evidenced at that link, should show it's more than "a day with Mathematica".  Besides, the proposed project includes actually making one.
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun 10 08:23:49 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 10:23:49 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Portuguese Poem
In-Reply-To: <CACBESnBou-FjUxxRAaR7ceT-RhO++w9Yb+cRCDBHT=nrVWK0jQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjn=ToW1HuusQMYxwYVjkL2HNnoV_aJZ59-kJdJfLhhCA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKG+AHy0udPV1CHvr362EGoVB_jKeizVat7P3xm35H7EdVA5Jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CACBESnBou-FjUxxRAaR7ceT-RhO++w9Yb+cRCDBHT=nrVWK0jQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <3159cc0b-cfab-7502-dc44-a31c866515e2@swisscows.email>



On Sun, 9 Jun 2024, Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat wrote:

> I'm fluent in Portuguese so this caught my attention. The translation is good. The comments are great.?
> I notice that when I speak in Portuguese I have a different, more engaging, personality... reflecting my experiences while learning
> the language in Brazil. I wonder if LLMs might have different personalities in different languages too.?
> 
> -Kelly

I heard or read somewhere that different languages change the way we think 
due to their grammar and where they put the emphasis. Don't know if it is 
true, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was.

In terms of LLM:s and the statistical underpinnings, my guess would be no.

Best regards,
Daniel


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun 10 08:22:05 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 10:22:05 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbak38yg6M4ERUezjEWW_T_NbnNrMUKOQ-GiiMWmjbLCg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
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Message-ID: <31cea140-42c2-f95c-8f41-5f3833fc65b4@swisscows.email>



On Sun, 9 Jun 2024, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote:

> I got my Ph.D. in basically three years, mostly because I was not required to do any teaching or anything else (in fact I was
> required not to).? That turned out not to be the benefit it seems to be.? bill w
>

Another idea poped up! What if I self finance my Ph.D.? Pay for it all
by myself? Surely then the school would be more flexible with their
teaching requirements or other requirements for that matter?

Best regards, 
Daniel

From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun 10 08:32:41 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 10:32:41 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <3e553e2d-e906-7a68-37d3-3542a3e0b7a5@swisscows.email>



On Sat, 8 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> If it works, it would be a far less expensive and better performing
> alternative to helium balloons, so it would make airships less costly
> - both to build and to operate - and give advantages, such as ability
> to repair in the air without carrying spare lifting gas (since one can
> manufacture vacuum on the spot) and better tying down in the face of
> windstorms (they can dismiss the vacuum and be in no danger of
> floating away, then remanufacture the vacuum afterward).?
> Commercialization is straightforward if I can get an airship
> manufacturer interested...which is the step I've not been able to do
> yet.? I'm more of an engineer than a salesperson.

Interesting! How many airship companies are there and how many have you
spoken with? Seems to me that if you could show them that you have a
reasonable chance of success, they would sponsor you. An acquaintance
did his Ph.D. sponsored by Bombardier since he was working on fluid
dynamics and making their train more efficient.

Synchronicity is a strange thing. Only last week was I discussing with
some business partners how nice it would be to start an airline company
based on airships, trading speed for space, convenience and being able
to appreciate good food during the trip.

Imagine... instead of sitting in a sardine can with crappy food,
enormous amount of noise, next to a man that stinks of alcohol, being
probed by security, interrogated by customs, hauling your bags through
endless corridors in airports... what if...

The trip took 2 or 3 days, you have a nice Michelin star level
restaurant on board, a bar, an individual cabin. Your bags are of course
screened and checked in before the flight, transported from/to your home
and destination without you having to carry them. You land close to
the city, security and immigration would be done en route.

On the other hand... I think this is such a common dream that the fact
thta it does not already exist shows that there is a catch somewhere,
financially or technologically.

> Indeed.? Start by reading what the university and department you are
> looking at, publish online about their requirements.? Then, talk to
> some faculty and staff there.

Yes, maybe I should start to have a look at if there are any libertarian
philosophy departments out there. Around me, they are mostly focusing on
gender "science" and postmodernism, and that I find completely
uninteresting.

From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 09:37:07 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 10:37:07 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Portuguese Poem
In-Reply-To: <3159cc0b-cfab-7502-dc44-a31c866515e2@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armjn=ToW1HuusQMYxwYVjkL2HNnoV_aJZ59-kJdJfLhhCA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKG+AHy0udPV1CHvr362EGoVB_jKeizVat7P3xm35H7EdVA5Jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CACBESnBou-FjUxxRAaR7ceT-RhO++w9Yb+cRCDBHT=nrVWK0jQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <3159cc0b-cfab-7502-dc44-a31c866515e2@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjY5t5q_-EFNY3e-wGkVtW51tmi7TKzniHyAeVHomA42w@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 10 Jun 2024 at 09:28, efc--- via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> I heard or read somewhere that different languages change the way we think
> due to their grammar and where they put the emphasis. Don't know if it is
> true, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was.
>
> In terms of LLM:s and the statistical underpinnings, my guess would be no.
>
> Best regards, Daniel
> _______________________________________________


The training data for Western LLMs is mostly based on English
language. They process other language questions by translating into
English, processing data in English, then translating the answer back
into the other language.
The Portuguese poem was translated to English, then processed through
the English text analysis logic to produce the answer in English.
The Chinese LLMs are different as they are based on a vast amount of
Chinese language datasets (as well as English datasets). This allows
them to understand and interact with humans in the Chinese language.
So western LLMs will generally always be responding as an English
speaker, because English language data is the great majority of their
training data.

BillK

From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 15:24:44 2024
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 11:24:44 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLycPkmBOOE==Nu+kL=DKNJVSgAgt-k_dSVTwZrJ8GMxg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 4:37?AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> If you do study this, you might put in a paragraph about the
> consequences of a large one failing.
>
> Air isn't as dense as water, but below a modest depth, a collapsing
> volume will generate more of a shock blast than the same volume of
> TNT.
>
> The consequences might be worse than one filled with hydrogen.
>

I have imagined the void balloon being much smaller, then using a large
number of them - akin almost to an aerogel that resists crush inside a
skin.   If a few of these voxels are damaged, there are still plenty of
others to mitigate a singular catastrophic implosion... you just lose
buoyancy until you are parked.  :)  I guess having an unstable airship
docking with your house would still be a bad day, but maybe not level the
neighborhood.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Jun 10 16:16:00 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 09:16:00 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <00fc01dabb51$7cbee000$763ca000$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] trust the fake science?

If you do study this, you might put in a paragraph about the consequences of a large one failing.

Air isn't as dense as water, but below a modest depth, a collapsing volume will generate more of a shock blast than the same volume of TNT.

The consequences might be worse than one filled with hydrogen.

Keith





Ja there is that.  Also: if some miracle material is discovered that is strong enough, I see no plausible means of propulsion on something big enough for that.  So... wherever the wind goes is where your vacuum balloon goes.

spike  






From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 16:30:41 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 17:30:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <00fc01dabb51$7cbee000$763ca000$@rainier66.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armjO=qq5=GgEso_qr6nCGN7-WcAzRoGfOo4N_t4dx6ssFQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 10 Jun 2024 at 17:18, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Ja there is that.  Also: if some miracle material is discovered that is strong enough, I see no plausible means of propulsion on something big enough for that.  So... wherever the wind goes is where your vacuum balloon goes.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Really?  It is just a type of airship. Why can't it have engines
(combustion or electric) bolted on like the Airlander?
<https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/airlander/airlander-10/>

BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Jun 10 17:00:58 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 10:00:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjO=qq5=GgEso_qr6nCGN7-WcAzRoGfOo4N_t4dx6ssFQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <014c01dabb57$c4413e90$4cc3bbb0$@rainier66.com>


> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] trust the fake science?

On Mon, 10 Jun 2024 at 17:18, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Ja there is that.  Also: if some miracle material is discovered that is
strong enough, I see no plausible means of propulsion on something big
enough for that.  So... wherever the wind goes is where your vacuum balloon
goes.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Really?  It is just a type of airship. Why can't it have engines (combustion
or electric) bolted on like the Airlander?
<https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/airlander/airlander-10/>

BillK
_______________________________________________






The Airlander's shape is not an option for a vacuum balloon, which must be
spherical and enormous because its shell is a structural element under
enormous compression stress.

spike


From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 18:01:22 2024
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:01:22 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <014c01dabb57$c4413e90$4cc3bbb0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdbL6NDXznfd23cc25jW2QvEheSXtiW+rg6nP6anjxmZtiw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024, 1:02 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> The Airlander's shape is not an option for a vacuum balloon, which must be
> spherical and enormous because its shell is a structural element under
> enormous compression stress.
>

You need to think outside the balloon

Even if you had a dangling crew compartment, it could use combination of
sails and fans.

It does seem like a lot of hassle compared to telepresence... but it's
interesting to think about

>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 18:36:43 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 11:36:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLycPkmBOOE==Nu+kL=DKNJVSgAgt-k_dSVTwZrJ8GMxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5F7wpZWmNeeoQSPkFzYN5c8XStogAXPjhH8+PVdZ82QQ@mail.gmail.com>

"I have imagined the void balloon being much smaller, then using a
large number of them -"

Some time ago a Japanese neutrino detector was lined with
photomultipliers the size of a TV CRT.

One broke and the cascading shock wave broke a substantial fraction of the rest.

Not saying this would happen with a bunch of void balloons, but it is
something to consider.

Keith

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 8:26?AM Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 4:37?AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> If you do study this, you might put in a paragraph about the
>> consequences of a large one failing.
>>
>> Air isn't as dense as water, but below a modest depth, a collapsing
>> volume will generate more of a shock blast than the same volume of
>> TNT.
>>
>> The consequences might be worse than one filled with hydrogen.
>
>
> I have imagined the void balloon being much smaller, then using a large number of them - akin almost to an aerogel that resists crush inside a skin.   If a few of these voxels are damaged, there are still plenty of others to mitigate a singular catastrophic implosion... you just lose buoyancy until you are parked.  :)  I guess having an unstable airship docking with your house would still be a bad day, but maybe not level the neighborhood.
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 18:45:45 2024
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:45:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5F7wpZWmNeeoQSPkFzYN5c8XStogAXPjhH8+PVdZ82QQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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On Mon, Jun 10, 2024, 2:37 PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:

> "I have imagined the void balloon being much smaller, then using a
> large number of them -"
>
> Some time ago a Japanese neutrino detector was lined with
> photomultipliers the size of a TV CRT.
>
> One broke and the cascading shock wave broke a substantial fraction of the
> rest.
>
> Not saying this would happen with a bunch of void balloons, but it is
> something to consider.
>

Yeah, it would be nice to design graceful failure mode like an escalator
fails into stairs rather than a no-air balloon failing into a Tunguska
style event. :)

>
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From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun 10 19:44:03 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 21:44:03 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5F7wpZWmNeeoQSPkFzYN5c8XStogAXPjhH8+PVdZ82QQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <8bff2e10-98a2-31de-6216-0033cd1e739e@swisscows.email>



On Mon, 10 Jun 2024, Keith Henson via extropy-chat wrote:

> "I have imagined the void balloon being much smaller, then using a
> large number of them -"
>
> Some time ago a Japanese neutrino detector was lined with
> photomultipliers the size of a TV CRT.
>
> One broke and the cascading shock wave broke a substantial fraction of the rest.
>
> Not saying this would happen with a bunch of void balloons, but it is
> something to consider.
>
> Keith

Hmm, I seem to remember reading something about Hydrogen airship safety, 
where someone was thinking along similar lines, having separate 
compartments, so if a fire started in one, it would be contained.

It was too long ago, so can't remember any details or sources.

Best regards,
Daniel





From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 20:34:52 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 16:34:52 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNSnF_-7rw4hcEbTw40nTbaERxiM3fzxt6PBv3gB3n56BA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 4:14?AM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:

> If you do study this, you might put in a paragraph about the
> consequences of a large one failing.
>
> Air isn't as dense as water, but below a modest depth, a collapsing
> volume will generate more of a shock blast than the same volume of
> TNT.
>
> The consequences might be worse than one filled with hydrogen.
>

A sudden collapse, all at once, perhaps.  A more likely failure mode is
pinhole pricks that only slowly allow air inside.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 20:35:56 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 16:35:56 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <31cea140-42c2-f95c-8f41-5f3833fc65b4@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 4:33?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Another idea poped up! What if I self finance my Ph.D.? Pay for it all
> by myself? Surely then the school would be more flexible with their
> teaching requirements or other requirements for that matter?
>

That is basically what I am trying.  I can only advise to talk to your
university faculty about this.  Some requirements are flexible, others not
so much.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 20:38:17 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 16:38:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLycPkmBOOE==Nu+kL=DKNJVSgAgt-k_dSVTwZrJ8GMxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 11:26?AM Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I have imagined the void balloon being much smaller, then using a large
> number of them - akin almost to an aerogel that resists crush inside a
> skin.   If a few of these voxels are damaged, there are still plenty of
> others to mitigate a singular catastrophic implosion... you just lose
> buoyancy until you are parked.  :)  I guess having an unstable airship
> docking with your house would still be a bad day, but maybe not level the
> neighborhood.
>

Standard commercial airships use at least 4 balloons, with the ability to
stay aloft if up to half of them are punctured.  I am aiming for the same
safety factor.  This is counterbalanced by large numbers of smaller
balloons being less efficient: due to square-cube law, the same volume of
smaller balloons can lift less than a few large ones.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 20:46:30 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 16:46:30 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <3e553e2d-e906-7a68-37d3-3542a3e0b7a5@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 4:34?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> How many airship companies are there and how many have you
> spoken with?


Not many and more than zero, not including the majority of cases where I
unsuccessfully tried to get their attention.


> Synchronicity is a strange thing. Only last week was I discussing with
> some business partners how nice it would be to start an airline company
> based on airships, trading speed for space, convenience and being able
> to appreciate good food during the trip.
>
> Imagine... instead of sitting in a sardine can with crappy food,
> enormous amount of noise, next to a man that stinks of alcohol, being
> probed by security, interrogated by customs, hauling your bags through
> endless corridors in airports... what if...
>
> The trip took 2 or 3 days, you have a nice Michelin star level
> restaurant on board, a bar, an individual cabin. Your bags are of course
> screened and checked in before the flight, transported from/to your home
> and destination without you having to carry them. You land close to
> the city, security and immigration would be done en route.
>
> On the other hand... I think this is such a common dream that the fact
> thta it does not already exist shows that there is a catch somewhere,
> financially or technologically.
>

Financially, though that's driven in part by the technology.  There's also
customer demand: what you describe is basically an airborne cruise ship,
and thus would directly compete with aquatic cruise ships.  See for example
https://oceanskycruises.com/ .  An airship that was much less expensive to
build and operate would make this sort of business more possible, though
the airship itself is not such a business's only expense.

If this idea appeals to you, there are a lot of free resources out there
for how to plan a startup business.  Start by seeing what people are paying
for the closest equivalent (cruise ship tickets, in this case) now, and how
many of that equivalent are sold per year.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 20:52:45 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 16:52:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <014c01dabb57$c4413e90$4cc3bbb0$@rainier66.com>
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On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 1:02?PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The Airlander's shape is not an option for a vacuum balloon, which must be
> spherical and enormous because its shell is a structural element under
> enormous compression stress.
>

As Mike said, think outside the balloon.  A modern airship has multiple
balloons.  So would an airship using vacuum balloons.

Consider, for instance, the classic cigar-shaped blimp with four or six
vacuum balloons taking up most of the internal volume, the cigar shape
being essentially light stiff armor (since the vacuum balloons are under
considerable mechanical stress already) and streamlining around the whole
set.  It would use airscrews, just like modern airships.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Jun 10 22:42:20 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 15:42:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSjfth6zy1J5i05hmsr=+8DEsyXchS5pSY5F4PUomw=8A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CALAdGNSiMuAtxvLU53XLg3F=2+cJrOc0mev2KRR87fuioyhzEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00fc01dabb51$7cbee000$763ca000$@rainier66.com>
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 =8A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01e001dabb87$74f42f70$5edc8e50$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Sent: Monday, 10 June, 2024 1:53 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] trust the fake science?

 

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 1:02?PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

The Airlander's shape is not an option for a vacuum balloon, which must be
spherical and enormous because its shell is a structural element under
enormous compression stress.

 

As Mike said, think outside the balloon.  A modern airship has multiple balloons.  So would an airship using vacuum balloons.

 

Consider, for instance, the classic cigar-shaped blimp with four or six vacuum balloons taking up most of the internal volume, the cigar shape being essentially light stiff armor (since the vacuum balloons are under considerable mechanical stress already) and streamlining around the whole set.  It would use airscrews, just like modern airships?

 

 

 

 

Ja, but when I ran the numbers, I came away unconvinced of this idea.  Adrian I hope you can make it work, and we are all cheering for you.

 

Do let us try a thought experiment, which would illustrate.  Imagine a spherical tank containing positive pressure inside, kinda the opposite of the vacuum balloon idea, and assume isotropic material for the tank, such as steel.  Imagine away any stress concentration factors anywhere (such as by imagining it in orbit.)  OK for any given pressure contained in that vessel, a skin thickness can be calculated.  So far so good.  

 

Now if we imagine the pressure doubling inside the tank, the skin thickness must also double in order to keep the material stress constant.  Make sense?

 

Now imagine keeping the pressure constant and doubling the tank radius.  The volume of the tank increases by a factor of eight and the surface area of the tank increases by a factor of 4.  So we could just square/cube our way to being a hero, ja?  

 

YeeeeeeahNo.  With those assumptions, when we double the radius of the tank with constant pressure inside, the thickness of the skin must also double.  So if we double the radius of the tank, the volume of the tank increases by a factor of 8 but its mass also increases by a factor of 8.

 

So now the next question: does that cube/cube relationship apply to a negative pressure vessel?  Well, not exactly.  But in general, it kinda does.  We get some bonus with compressive stress, but it is harder to model than tensile strength.  Consider for instance tensile/compression testing machine, the kind made by Tinius Olsen for lab use.  Of all the tests I have seen in the lab, a general rule is that tensile strength of a number of samples of the same material will produce similar results.  But compression tests of the same material are scattered all over the map.  I don?t know why that is, but it means that compression stress is harder to model because we need bigger margins.  The result is that a vacuum balloon needs to be huge.

 

Adrian I didn?t post about it because I want to see if you can make it happen.

 

spike

 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jun 10 23:17:29 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 00:17:29 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New Easter Island Documentary (2024)
Message-ID: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>

I've just watched a new 55-minute documentary about what really
happened to the people of Easter Island.
It may be available on PBS or other sources.
Jared Diamond?s bestselling book Collapse, about self-inflicted
societal collapse got it all wrong.

If you search for "Easter Island Origins" (in quotes, as that is the
video title) you may find a copy to watch.

<https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/easter-island-origins/>
says that the video is not available at present, but it does have a
transcript of the video with all the information.
You just don't get to see the spectacular pictures of the island.

An inspiring story of survival and tragedy.  Highly recommended!

BillK


From scerir at libero.it  Mon Jun 10 09:36:33 2024
From: scerir at libero.it (scerir)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 11:36:33 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Portuguese Poem
In-Reply-To: <3159cc0b-cfab-7502-dc44-a31c866515e2@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armjn=ToW1HuusQMYxwYVjkL2HNnoV_aJZ59-kJdJfLhhCA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKG+AHy0udPV1CHvr362EGoVB_jKeizVat7P3xm35H7EdVA5Jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CACBESnBou-FjUxxRAaR7ceT-RhO++w9Yb+cRCDBHT=nrVWK0jQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <3159cc0b-cfab-7502-dc44-a31c866515e2@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <232665558.1212574.1718012193535@mail1.libero.it>

"We don't live in a country, but in a language." ? Elias Canetti

> Il 10/06/2024 10:23 CEST efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> ha scritto:
> 
>  
> On Sun, 9 Jun 2024, Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat wrote:
> 
> > I'm fluent in Portuguese so this caught my attention. The translation is good. The comments are great.?
> > I notice that when I speak in Portuguese I have a different, more engaging, personality... reflecting my experiences while learning
> > the language in Brazil. I wonder if LLMs might have different personalities in different languages too.?
> > 
> > -Kelly
> 
> I heard or read somewhere that different languages change the way we think 
> due to their grammar and where they put the emphasis. Don't know if it is 
> true, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was.
> 
> In terms of LLM:s and the statistical underpinnings, my guess would be no.
> 
> Best regards,
> Daniel
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jun 11 00:50:09 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 20:50:09 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <01e001dabb87$74f42f70$5edc8e50$@rainier66.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNQiatJ6dC1JMpOv99XL+xt5ZB3RDG2ODHqDjOx0pD9CSA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 6:42?PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Now if we imagine the pressure doubling inside the tank, the skin
> thickness must also double in order to keep the material stress constant.
> Make sense?
>
>
>
> Now imagine keeping the pressure constant and doubling the tank radius.
> The volume of the tank increases by a factor of eight and the surface area
> of the tank increases by a factor of 4.  So we could just square/cube our
> way to being a hero, ja?
>
>
>
> YeeeeeeahNo.  With those assumptions, when we double the radius of the
> tank with constant pressure inside, the thickness of the skin must also
> double.
>

Why so?  The pressure did not double.  The skin thickness resists pressure
per unit area.
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Tue Jun 11 01:32:42 2024
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 18:32:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Easter Island Documentary (2024)
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <F26F160E-9FDA-48E6-9B4A-7FBC966DAD3A@gmail.com>

I haven?t seen that documentary, but recall years ago many anthropologists and the like who had expertise in Rapa Nuhi and Polynesia in general strongly disagreed with Diamond?s views. This was around the time his book Collapse came out. There was even a popular level book taking on this example that I read. In other words, this should come as no shock.

Regards,

Dan

> On Jun 10, 2024, at 4:19?PM, BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> 
> ?I've just watched a new 55-minute documentary about what really
> happened to the people of Easter Island.
> It may be available on PBS or other sources.
> Jared Diamond?s bestselling book Collapse, about self-inflicted
> societal collapse got it all wrong.
> 
> If you search for "Easter Island Origins" (in quotes, as that is the
> video title) you may find a copy to watch.
> 
> <https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/easter-island-origins/>
> says that the video is not available at present, but it does have a
> transcript of the video with all the information.
> You just don't get to see the spectacular pictures of the island.
> 
> An inspiring story of survival and tragedy.  Highly recommended!
> 
> BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Jun 11 01:35:39 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2024 18:35:39 -0700
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQiatJ6dC1JMpOv99XL+xt5ZB3RDG2ODHqDjOx0pD9CSA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CALAdGNQiatJ6dC1JMpOv99XL+xt5ZB3RDG2ODHqDjOx0pD9CSA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <008401dabb9f$aae37b00$00aa7100$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Sent: Monday, 10 June, 2024 5:50 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] trust the fake science?

 

On Mon, Jun 10, 2024 at 6:42?PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

Now if we imagine the pressure doubling inside the tank, the skin thickness must also double in order to keep the material stress constant.  Make sense?

 

Now imagine keeping the pressure constant and doubling the tank radius.  The volume of the tank increases by a factor of eight and the surface area of the tank increases by a factor of 4.  So we could just square/cube our way to being a hero, ja?  

 

YeeeeeeahNo.  With those assumptions, when we double the radius of the tank with constant pressure inside, the thickness of the skin must also double.

 

>?Why so?  The pressure did not double.  The skin thickness resists pressure per unit area?

 

 

 

 

The hoop stress equation will get you there, but we can do it thought experiment style, which has its advantages for visualization purposes.

 

Imagine your spherical tank in orbit so no external forces again, now imagine a cutting plane that passes thru the center.  Now look at the tensile stress on the material the plane passes thru.  It?s area is the circumference of the sphere times the thickness of the tank.  The force on that area is (pi*R^2)P where P is the pressure inside the tank.

 

Now if you double the R, the volume goes up by a factor of 8, the force goes up by a factor of 4 (ja?)  The circumference goes up by a factor of 2.  To keep the force over area constant, ya hafta double the thickness of the tank.

 

With negative pressure tanks (submarines and such) it is more complicated because of stress concentrations with compressive stress.  But if we do ideal case, perfectly isotropic material and no stress concentrations anywhere, it works that way for those too.

 

Adrian, this is a thought experiment only, not a proof your idea can?t work.

 

spike

 

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From efc at swisscows.email  Tue Jun 11 07:30:28 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 09:30:28 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRHQQfmh5r1ncGJDtR20oZwPr_05wCepP3Lxr8NT0drpw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
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 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CALAdGNRHQQfmh5r1ncGJDtR20oZwPr_05wCepP3Lxr8NT0drpw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <247f2d51-4cb8-41b7-3fc6-cf3297115033@swisscows.email>



On Mon, 10 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

>       How many airship companies are there and how many have you
>       spoken with?
> 
> Not many and more than zero, not including the majority of cases where
> I unsuccessfully tried to get their attention.  ?

Did you get any feedback from them why they where not interested? Or was
it that they didn't even reply?

> Financially, though that's driven in part by the technology.? There's
> also customer demand: what you describe is basically an airborne
> cruise ship, and thus would directly compete with aquatic cruise
> ships.? See for example?https://oceanskycruises.com/ .? An airship

Thank you very much for the link.

> If this idea appeals to you, there are a lot of free resources out
> there for how to plan a startup business.? Start by seeing what people
> are paying for the closest equivalent (cruise ship tickets, in this
> case) now, and how many of that equivalent are sold per year.

I'm no stranger to starting businesses, but in this case, as you say, I
will need more information. Once I have that, and _if_ things look good, 
it's just about finding the capital, and the rest should be (as the
saying goes) (future) history. ;)

From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jun 11 12:33:41 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 08:33:41 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <247f2d51-4cb8-41b7-3fc6-cf3297115033@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNR6DzH9=oubkOYFybSF-9QpR=nzDCTnr8yx_CQTSyAmMA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 11, 2024, 3:32?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Did you get any feedback from them why they where not interested? Or was
> it that they didn't even reply?
>

Usually it was the latter.  A few did say they had no budget for R&D, no
matter how promising the proposed upgrade.  Which is fair: I believe that
most airship businesses today have fairly thin profit margins.

Thank you very much for the link.
>

You are welcome.  I found that with under a minute of googling, so I
suspect that serious hours of market research would yield much more data.
If you do this, I would be curious to read what you find.
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From efc at swisscows.email  Tue Jun 11 12:39:46 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 14:39:46 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNR6DzH9=oubkOYFybSF-9QpR=nzDCTnr8yx_CQTSyAmMA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
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Message-ID: <317ebb19-e9d3-b81b-5722-5a566e105bf1@swisscows.email>



On Tue, 11 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> On Tue, Jun 11, 2024, 3:32?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       Did you get any feedback from them why they where not interested? Or was
>       it that they didn't even reply?
> 
> 
> Usually it was the latter.? A few did say they had no budget for R&D, no matter how promising the proposed upgrade.? Which is fair: I
> believe that most airship businesses today have fairly thin profit margins.

Well, the ones who didn't reply, keep drilling! =) I wonder if you could 
put together a proposal for several companies to sponsor in return, of 
course, for potential rights to use the results on an exclusive basis?

>       Thank you very much for the link.
> 
> 
> You are welcome.? I found that with under a minute of googling, so I suspect that serious hours of market research would yield much
> more data.? If you do this, I would be curious to read what you find.

What a coincidence, they are based in Stockholm. Next time I'm in town, 
perhaps I'll drop by their office for a chat!

From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jun 11 13:17:12 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 09:17:12 -0400
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <317ebb19-e9d3-b81b-5722-5a566e105bf1@swisscows.email>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <3e553e2d-e906-7a68-37d3-3542a3e0b7a5@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRHQQfmh5r1ncGJDtR20oZwPr_05wCepP3Lxr8NT0drpw@mail.gmail.com>
 <247f2d51-4cb8-41b7-3fc6-cf3297115033@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNR6DzH9=oubkOYFybSF-9QpR=nzDCTnr8yx_CQTSyAmMA@mail.gmail.com>
 <317ebb19-e9d3-b81b-5722-5a566e105bf1@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT_h9dXxRT3jCsrGfkjRLHEghgNM_cT4nuRYiytTPBL8w@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 11, 2024, 8:41?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Well, the ones who didn't reply, keep drilling! =)


There's only so much time and energy I can put into an effort that is
getting literally zero results.  And now I may have a path to actually
getting some value from my idea.

I wonder if you could
> put together a proposal for several companies to sponsor in return, of
> course, for potential rights to use the results on an exclusive basis?
>

If I can't even get one company interested, I rather doubt I could get
multiple.

But if you want to look into setting up a company along these lines, I'll
make you this offer.

Spend some weeks or months researching this field further.  Maybe talk to
that company in Stockholm (I don't know if you can literally just swing by
their office, call and make an appointment, or how that works).  For my
idea for now, do the math as if it just removed the expense of helium from
the equation, with no consideration of what other costs or benefits it
would bring.  (I believe this will be close enough to the truth, for
purposes of determining whether you could outcompete the existing solutions
or find another way to profit from this.)

If, after that, you have a viable enough business notion that you form a
company, I would be willing to sign a NDA with that company to facilitate
disclosing how my trick works.  If, after evaluating, you wish to use it,
we can then discuss licensing.

I can't guarantee exclusive licensing.  After all, if my PhD plan works, it
would be published for all (or at least, those who notice) to see in about
4 years.  But since I can't get anyone else interested anyway, and let's
say it takes you 1 year to get this going, that's 3 years of de facto
exclusivity - possubly enough time to establish market dominance.

I believe that's the best I can offer, given my situation.  But if you want
to put in the work, and you have a good enough application for this* and
can raise the capital, I would not mind helping you get rich this way.

* I had been thinking more along the lines of cargo airships delivering
to/from remote areas with poor infrastructure, or long-duration drones that
can stay on station much longer than helium airship drones (like a cell
tower in the sky, or something with most of the benefits of a GEO satellite
but much closer and lower cost, for lower latency and higher resolution
observation in exchange for a smaller footprint).

>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Jun 11 14:08:10 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 09:08:10 -0500
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNT_h9dXxRT3jCsrGfkjRLHEghgNM_cT4nuRYiytTPBL8w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <3e553e2d-e906-7a68-37d3-3542a3e0b7a5@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRHQQfmh5r1ncGJDtR20oZwPr_05wCepP3Lxr8NT0drpw@mail.gmail.com>
 <247f2d51-4cb8-41b7-3fc6-cf3297115033@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNR6DzH9=oubkOYFybSF-9QpR=nzDCTnr8yx_CQTSyAmMA@mail.gmail.com>
 <317ebb19-e9d3-b81b-5722-5a566e105bf1@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNT_h9dXxRT3jCsrGfkjRLHEghgNM_cT4nuRYiytTPBL8w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaxaPdFkzmE6owq7ozU13VaB3DDoaAJ-9wxA+NwQumiGQ@mail.gmail.com>

Read chapter 24 in Kahnemen's book 'Thinking Fast and Slow'.

Remember 'unknown unknowns'.
Do a premortem:  one year after your company went active it failed.
Discuss reasons why it did.  bill w

On Tue, Jun 11, 2024 at 8:19?AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Tue, Jun 11, 2024, 8:41?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> Well, the ones who didn't reply, keep drilling! =)
>
>
> There's only so much time and energy I can put into an effort that is
> getting literally zero results.  And now I may have a path to actually
> getting some value from my idea.
>
> I wonder if you could
>> put together a proposal for several companies to sponsor in return, of
>> course, for potential rights to use the results on an exclusive basis?
>>
>
> If I can't even get one company interested, I rather doubt I could get
> multiple.
>
> But if you want to look into setting up a company along these lines, I'll
> make you this offer.
>
> Spend some weeks or months researching this field further.  Maybe talk to
> that company in Stockholm (I don't know if you can literally just swing by
> their office, call and make an appointment, or how that works).  For my
> idea for now, do the math as if it just removed the expense of helium from
> the equation, with no consideration of what other costs or benefits it
> would bring.  (I believe this will be close enough to the truth, for
> purposes of determining whether you could outcompete the existing solutions
> or find another way to profit from this.)
>
> If, after that, you have a viable enough business notion that you form a
> company, I would be willing to sign a NDA with that company to facilitate
> disclosing how my trick works.  If, after evaluating, you wish to use it,
> we can then discuss licensing.
>
> I can't guarantee exclusive licensing.  After all, if my PhD plan works,
> it would be published for all (or at least, those who notice) to see in
> about 4 years.  But since I can't get anyone else interested anyway, and
> let's say it takes you 1 year to get this going, that's 3 years of de facto
> exclusivity - possubly enough time to establish market dominance.
>
> I believe that's the best I can offer, given my situation.  But if you
> want to put in the work, and you have a good enough application for this*
> and can raise the capital, I would not mind helping you get rich this way.
>
> * I had been thinking more along the lines of cargo airships delivering
> to/from remote areas with poor infrastructure, or long-duration drones that
> can stay on station much longer than helium airship drones (like a cell
> tower in the sky, or something with most of the benefits of a GEO satellite
> but much closer and lower cost, for lower latency and higher resolution
> observation in exchange for a smaller footprint).
>
>> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Jun 11 22:03:51 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 23:03:51 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Vacuum Balloons Tech
Message-ID: <CAL_armhrWzPiC4CZUOPzUEHpPubyrX3npUcowSiFjuG5Omg_xQ@mail.gmail.com>

So I discussed vacuum balloons with an AI (of course).  :)

The first response was that vacuum balloons are not possible at present.
(But I didn't let that deter me).

Answer -
No, vacuum balloons are not practically possible with current materials and
technology. Here are the key reasons why:

Buckling is the main issue that prevents vacuum balloons from being
feasible. The external atmospheric pressure would cause the vacuum balloon
shell to buckle and collapse inward, even for extremely strong materials
like diamond. [3] The required material strength-to-density ratio to resist
buckling exceeds what is achievable, even with theoretical materials like a
diamond shell or honeycomb structures. [3][4]

The compressive strength calculation alone is insufficient - it disregards
the buckling failure mode. Using the formula for critical buckling pressure
of a sphere shows that no known material can practically withstand the
immense external pressure. [3]

While some have proposed using a double-walled design with pressurized air
between the walls, this would negate any buoyancy benefits as the overall
density could not be less than air. [3]

Despite over 350 years of proposals and attempts, no one has successfully
demonstrated a working vacuum balloon prototype due to these fundamental
material limitations. [3][4] Vacuum balloons remain an unrealized
theoretical concept with current technology.

Citations:
[1]
https://engineering.stackexchange.com/questions/2307/can-vacuum-balloon-become-possible-with-this-idea
[2]
https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/comments/2e6m04/self_could_a_vacuum_balloon_be_possible/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_airship
[4] https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4117/2/4/30
[5]
https://science.howstuffworks.com/science-vs-myth/everyday-myths/question194.htm
--------------------

I didn't give up. As I had inside information, I asked - Is a Los Alamos
engineer working on this?

Answer -
Yes, according to the search results, Miles Beaux, a materials scientist at
the Los Alamos National Laboratory, is leading a team working on developing
a vacuum balloon or "air-buoyant craft" using ultra-lightweight aerogel
materials. [1][2]

The key points about Beaux's work on vacuum balloons at Los Alamos are:

- Beaux's goal is to develop an aircraft that floats without heat or helium
by creating a hollow sphere containing a vacuum, making it lighter than the
surrounding air to stay aloft. [2]

- They are using polyimide aerogels, which are extremely lightweight yet
strong enough to withstand atmospheric pressure and maintain the internal
vacuum. [2]

- They have produced small prototypes ranging from lemon to soccer ball
size that can hold a vacuum for up to 12 hours without active pumping. [3]

- However, these small prototypes are not yet buoyant in air. Beaux
estimates they need to build a 1.4-meter diameter sphere for it to generate
sufficient lift to float. [2]

- Beaux and his team have made rapid progress over the past five years,
progressing from aerogels 34 times denser than air to within 10 times the
density of air, which is close to achieving air buoyancy. [1]

So in summary, yes, the Los Alamos scientist Miles Beaux is actively
working on developing a practical vacuum balloon design using aerogel
materials as part of a team at the national laboratory. [1][2][3]

Citations:
[1]
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/scientists-create-vacuum-balloon-for-air-travel/
[2]
https://discover.lanl.gov/publications/national-security-science/2021-winter/building-a-better-balloon/
[3]
https://www.salon.com/2020/09/27/helium-shortage-vacuum-balloons-science-medicine-party-industry-inventors-engineering/
[4]
https://discover.lanl.gov/publications/1663/2021-august/lighter-than-air/
[5] https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1881814
----------------------

To clarify the problem, I then asked - What are the main challenges faced
by the Los Alamos team in developing the vacuum balloon?

Answer -
The main challenges faced by the Los Alamos team in developing the vacuum
balloon or "air-buoyant craft" are:

1. Scaling up the prototypes to a large enough size (around 1.4 meters
diameter) to generate sufficient buoyancy to float. So far, they have only
produced small prototypes ranging from lemon to soccer ball size that
cannot yet hover. [1][5]

2. Developing aerogel materials with the required combination of ultra-low
density (within 10 times the density of air), high strength to withstand
atmospheric pressure, and ability to maintain vacuum over long periods.
[1][5]

3. Engineering a vessel design and fabrication process that can create a
large, lightweight, vacuum-sealed sphere strong enough to avoid buckling
under external air pressure. [5]

4. Achieving a vacuum level inside the sphere that reduces its overall
density below that of air to enable buoyancy. [5]

5. Integrating a lightweight vacuum pump system to actively maintain the
vacuum over extended periods for sustained flight. [5]

6. Overcoming skepticism and the prevailing view that a practical vacuum
balloon is impossible to realize with current materials and technology. [5]

The Los Alamos team, led by Miles Beaux, has made significant progress by
using polyimide aerogels and advancing from prototypes 34 times denser than
air to within 10 times air density. However, scaling up to a buoyant
full-scale prototype remains a key challenge they are actively working to
overcome. [1][5]

Citations:
[1]
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/scientists-create-vacuum-balloon-for-air-travel/
[2]
https://discover.lanl.gov/publications/1663/2021-august/lighter-than-air/
[3]
https://engineering.stackexchange.com/questions/2307/can-vacuum-balloon-become-possible-with-this-idea
[4] https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1881814
[5]
https://discover.lanl.gov/publications/national-security-science/2021-winter/building-a-better-balloon/
-----------------------------

I note that the  AI mentions the vacuum pump requirement. An airship needs
a method of adjusting the buoyancy so that it can ascend and descend as
necessary. As well as drive engines.
Research continues.......

BillK
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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Jun 12 01:00:46 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 21:00:46 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Vacuum Balloons Tech
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhrWzPiC4CZUOPzUEHpPubyrX3npUcowSiFjuG5Omg_xQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhrWzPiC4CZUOPzUEHpPubyrX3npUcowSiFjuG5Omg_xQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQqpk8uCHWy9AnDFR91xv7e5WLV=wPS+X67YWnv1+tx+Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 11, 2024 at 6:06?PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> So I discussed vacuum balloons with an AI (of course).  :)
>
> The first response was that vacuum balloons are not possible at present.
> (But I didn't let that deter me).
>

The AI is not the first to make that claim.


> Beaux and his team have made rapid progress over the past five years,
> progressing from aerogels 34 times denser than air to within 10 times the
> density of air, which is close to achieving air buoyancy.
>

I think I'll send him an email, to see if he's interested.

I note that the  AI mentions the vacuum pump requirement. An airship needs
> a method of adjusting the buoyancy so that it can ascend and descend as
> necessary. As well as drive engines.
>

That it does.  My design requires a vacuum pump too, but they are cheap and
fairly light relative to the target balloon mass.
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From efc at swisscows.email  Wed Jun 12 12:36:01 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Wed, 12 Jun 2024 14:36:01 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] trust the fake science?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNT_h9dXxRT3jCsrGfkjRLHEghgNM_cT4nuRYiytTPBL8w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <3e553e2d-e906-7a68-37d3-3542a3e0b7a5@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRHQQfmh5r1ncGJDtR20oZwPr_05wCepP3Lxr8NT0drpw@mail.gmail.com>
 <247f2d51-4cb8-41b7-3fc6-cf3297115033@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNR6DzH9=oubkOYFybSF-9QpR=nzDCTnr8yx_CQTSyAmMA@mail.gmail.com>
 <317ebb19-e9d3-b81b-5722-5a566e105bf1@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNT_h9dXxRT3jCsrGfkjRLHEghgNM_cT4nuRYiytTPBL8w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <9333d5dd-b17c-ebc7-a1b4-9d60a45ceec6@swisscows.email>

> On Tue, Jun 11, 2024, 8:41?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       Well, the ones who didn't reply, keep drilling! =)
> 
> There's only so much time and energy I can put into an effort that is
> getting literally zero results.? And now I may have a path to actually
> getting some value from my idea.

True. This is one of those limits that every person has to set for
himself, given what else is going on in life and how strong ones belief
in the idea is.

>       I wonder if you could
>       put together a proposal for several companies to sponsor in return, of
>       course, for potential rights to use the results on an exclusive basis?
> 
> If I can't even get one company interested, I rather doubt I could get multiple.

You must think positively! Banish all of that thinking from your mind
and focus on the positive side! =)

> But if you want to look into setting up a company along these lines,
> I'll make you this offer.
> 
> Spend some weeks or months researching this field further.? Maybe talk
> to that company in Stockholm (I don't know if you can
...
> exchange for a smaller footprint).

Thank you very much Adrian. I'm obviously not making any promises or
commitments, but rest assured that I've taken notice. Usually the way
life works is that I might bump into someone, who bumps into someone,
who has the right connection.

This process takes time though and is one of those things which are
difficult to plan and predict.

So if something happens, I know where to find you. =)

Best regards, 
Daniel

From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 12:45:57 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 13:45:57 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New Easter Island Documentary (2024)
In-Reply-To: <F26F160E-9FDA-48E6-9B4A-7FBC966DAD3A@gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>
 <F26F160E-9FDA-48E6-9B4A-7FBC966DAD3A@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armguEQpms7aGNzJd__ZJe40BwnB_tjkd7v9XsD2YrLBerg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, 11 Jun 2024 at 02:35, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I haven?t seen that documentary, but recall years ago many anthropologists
> and the like who had expertise in Rapa Nuhi and Polynesia in general
> strongly disagreed with Diamond?s views. This was around the time his book
> Collapse came out. There was even a popular level book taking on this
> example that I read. In other words, this should come as no shock.
>
> Regards,  Dan
> _______________________________________________
>


The video runs for almost an hour and provides much evidence for their
conclusions.
I have run a summarize program on the very long video transcript.

BillK

Summary -
The documentary explores the history and culture of Rapa Nui, also known as
Easter Island. It challenges the common narrative of the island's collapse
and instead presents evidence of a thriving and sustainable society.
The key points are:- The moai statues, while iconic, are only a small part
of the island's rich archaeological and cultural heritage.
Rapa Nui experts are reclaiming the island's history and challenging
Western misconceptions.
- Genetic analysis reveals that the original Rapa Nui settlers had
Polynesian ancestry mixed with some influence from ancient South America,
suggesting early contact between the two regions.
- The island's landscape and resources were used ingeniously by the Rapa
Nui people, with no evidence of a societal collapse.
- The location of the moai and ahu platforms were strategically placed near
vital resources like freshwater.
- The introduction of disease and the impact of colonization were the main
factors that led to the decline of the Rapa Nui population, not an
environmental catastrophe caused by the islanders themselves.
---------------------------------
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Jun 13 13:49:04 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 06:49:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] vaccuum balloon in freon
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSjfth6zy1J5i05hmsr=+8DEsyXchS5pSY5F4PUomw=8A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB4Ey9ZVKLzDCWhsm02m_+NNDewfbBfvHEA_-KZ05napBg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB5BVr9QapxciEpS69OnvXHBLbJjNq31QjFAAnb84KZxkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNSiMuAtxvLU53XLg3F=2+cJrOc0mev2KRR87fuioyhzEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00fc01dabb51$7cbee000$763ca000$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjO=qq5=GgEso_qr6nCGN7-WcAzRoGfOo4N_t4dx6ssFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <014c01dabb57$c4413e90$4cc3bbb0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSjfth6zy1J5i05hmsr=+8DEsyXchS5pSY5F4PUomw
 =8A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00ab01dabd98$755fc420$601f4c60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
?

As Mike said, think outside the balloon.  ?

 

 

Hey cool I had an idea for Adrian?s vacuum balloon.

 

As a demonstration, he could float a pre-buoyant version of his idea in gaseous halocarbon C318:

 

https://www.airgas.com/airgascatalog/catalog/P24_Halocarbon-C318,_Halocarbon-1216_Pure_Gases.pdf

 

https://www.fluorined-chemicals.com/propellant-gas/halocarbon-c318-c4f8-octafluorocyclobutane.html

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octafluorocyclobutane

 

We fooled with the stuff at Lockheed back in 1989 for making a circuit card cleaning system and as a possible wave-solder medium.  It has a boiling point of way down there below water ice temperature.  It is non-toxic and safe to handle, doesn?t cost much.  It is similar chemically to that stuff we have long used to clean dust and debris from circuits.  It is used in fire extinguishers and (I think) in the canned whipped cream propellant.  It is chemically stable as it can be, so even if you breathe some of it, that won?t hurt ya.  It has a molecular weight of 200, so it is about seven times the density of air.  We kept the stuff in an open box with a heating element at the bottom and not very much spilled out that we could tell.

 

We had a heated vat of the stuff.  If you found some of the really light aluminum foil, you could make a boat out of it and float it in the gaseous OFC (octofluorocyclobutane.)  The heavy kitchen foil wouldn?t work, but we had some much lighter aluminum foil we were fooling with.   It wouldn?t float long, because the aluminum boat would leak.  But it made for fun visual effect while it stayed up there.

 

Adrian could build his prototype vacuum balloon which wouldn?t even need to be lighter than the air it displaces for demonstration purposes, never mind evacuating it for now, float the whole thing in C4F8.  You would observe truth in advertising of course, make it clear this version isn?t ready for prime time, but rather is a testbed, and this is what it will look like if it holds up to the pressure.

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 13:56:09 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 09:56:09 -0400
Subject: [ExI] vaccuum balloon in freon
In-Reply-To: <00ab01dabd98$755fc420$601f4c60$@rainier66.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAPiwVB4Ey9ZVKLzDCWhsm02m_+NNDewfbBfvHEA_-KZ05napBg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB5BVr9QapxciEpS69OnvXHBLbJjNq31QjFAAnb84KZxkg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <00ab01dabd98$755fc420$601f4c60$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQfGkfMwyACb1dcg43y=8BZFH4GSxO+k9Mm7ihvUqc0xg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Jun 13, 2024 at 9:49?AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> As a demonstration, he could float a pre-buoyant version of his idea in
> gaseous halocarbon C318:
>

Nice idea, but that would probably be more work and far more expense than
just making one that floats in normal air.

Setting up the vat itself would cost well over $100,000, right?  That would
make it more expensive.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Jun 13 15:17:22 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 08:17:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] vaccuum balloon in freon
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQfGkfMwyACb1dcg43y=8BZFH4GSxO+k9Mm7ihvUqc0xg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CACOs+YtPm+OOLzmBz-Oq+GG-aq1Lw+Npvz8oyN1eF2sucORqEg@mail.gmail.com>
 <38eaa375-6d07-9ceb-8b37-7ef4034cf53e@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNRcyR=MphdFYgyaB1gpB5jCpMTZZQZN0umD7YKwRG-bKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <e0a1129e-85c5-f0dc-bf48-c637867aa21c@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTyG3G=TjRQW2Rw=Bx+cGvtAwf_cTF36t=HVt47H2CaFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <e3041b56-9214-d015-0407-be725e91c5f3@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNTRHkUh0f_0uOFdv=2yijKQrqSz8SvrmPX1-i18uHpENQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB4Ey9ZVKLzDCWhsm02m_+NNDewfbBfvHEA_-KZ05napBg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRo8-QzN=H1cO4PJKrZss1N_FfRQXjchfxLMbCeam3VGg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB5BVr9QapxciEpS69OnvXHBLbJjNq31QjFAAnb84KZxkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNSiMuAtxvLU53XLg3F=2+cJrOc0mev2KRR87fuioyhzEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB6oKW_gBZYtPuXkN7s7FnOdXD34MhgaDWNgnjvX5oEYcw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00fc01dabb51$7cbee000$763ca000$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjO=qq5=GgEso_qr6nCGN7-WcAzRoGfOo4N_t4dx6ssFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <014c01dabb57$c4413e90$4cc3bbb0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSjfth6zy1J5i05hmsr=+8DEsyXchS5pSY5F4PUomw
 =8A@mail.gmail.com> <00ab01dabd98$755fc420$601f4c60$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQfGkfMwyACb1dcg43y=8BZFH4GSxO+k9Mm7ihvUqc0xg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <001401dabda4$caa295f0$5fe7c1d0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Sent: Thursday, 13 June, 2024 6:56 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] vaccuum balloon in freon

 

On Thu, Jun 13, 2024 at 9:49?AM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

As a demonstration, he could float a pre-buoyant version of his idea in gaseous halocarbon C318:

 

>?Nice idea, but that would probably be more work and far more expense than just making one that floats in normal air.

 

>?Setting up the vat itself would cost well over $100,000, right?  That would make it more expensive.

 

 

 

 

No I wouldn?t think it would be that expensive, because using C318 enables creation of a quarter scale model.  It could be made with 2-meter on a side square panels, steel, welded seam.  You would lower your balloon in there, pour in the liquid C318, the stuff boils, up it floats.

 

You might be able to build something like that for in the 10k to 15k range if you have someone who is hot with a welder.

 

I am visualizing it as an advertisement mechanism.

 

spike

 

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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 15:36:46 2024
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 17:36:46 +0200
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <SA1PR22MB5294390F6C739662592C855487FB2@SA1PR22MB5294.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
 <SA1PR22MB5294390F6C739662592C855487FB2@SA1PR22MB5294.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4k6qCsuL2uSk0rsmGj9O4xheNOKQKakg0B9E+m_+Ke+g@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, 7 Jun 2024 at 20:46, Natasha natashavita-more.com <
natasha at natashavita-more.com> wrote:

> Hi Stefano,
>
> Seems pretty much aligned with my thinking. ??
>
> ??????
>

Stefano
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Jun 13 16:09:05 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 09:09:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a4k6qCsuL2uSk0rsmGj9O4xheNOKQKakg0B9E+m_+Ke+g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
 <SA1PR22MB5294390F6C739662592C855487FB2@SA1PR22MB5294.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
 <CAPoR7a4k6qCsuL2uSk0rsmGj9O4xheNOKQKakg0B9E+m_+Ke+g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003f01dabdac$04806980$0d813c80$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism

 

On Fri, 7 Jun 2024 at 20:46, Natasha natashavita-more.com <http://natashavita-more.com>  <natasha at natashavita-more.com <mailto:natasha at natashavita-more.com> > wrote:

Hi Stefano,

 

Seems pretty much aligned with my thinking. ??

 

??????

 

Stefano 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stefano, welcome back!  We wondered what had happened to you.

 

spike

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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 18:05:56 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 11:05:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Easter Island Documentary (2024)
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armguEQpms7aGNzJd__ZJe40BwnB_tjkd7v9XsD2YrLBerg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>
 <F26F160E-9FDA-48E6-9B4A-7FBC966DAD3A@gmail.com>
 <CAL_armguEQpms7aGNzJd__ZJe40BwnB_tjkd7v9XsD2YrLBerg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6DjgJVYqPvm2xJsym1DC_TWXvsePK=PcsHCKxcMK0ZRw@mail.gmail.com>

Diamonds analysis just makes sense.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2003-11-22/st-matthew-island-overshoot-collapse/

Humans without relatively high-tech birth control are no better than reindeer.

As for genes from South America, that would be expected given that the
population was shipped off to SA as slaves for a generation or so
before they were shipped back.

When the island was first visited by Europeans they had no boats to
make an ocean crossing.

Keith

On Thu, Jun 13, 2024 at 5:47?AM BillK via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Tue, 11 Jun 2024 at 02:35, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> I haven?t seen that documentary, but recall years ago many anthropologists and the like who had expertise in Rapa Nuhi and Polynesia in general strongly disagreed with Diamond?s views. This was around the time his book Collapse came out. There was even a popular level book taking on this example that I read. In other words, this should come as no shock.
>>
>> Regards,  Dan
>> _______________________________________________
>
>
>
> The video runs for almost an hour and provides much evidence for their conclusions.
> I have run a summarize program on the very long video transcript.
>
> BillK
>
> Summary -
> The documentary explores the history and culture of Rapa Nui, also known as Easter Island. It challenges the common narrative of the island's collapse and instead presents evidence of a thriving and sustainable society.
> The key points are:- The moai statues, while iconic, are only a small part of the island's rich archaeological and cultural heritage.
> Rapa Nui experts are reclaiming the island's history and challenging Western misconceptions.
> - Genetic analysis reveals that the original Rapa Nui settlers had Polynesian ancestry mixed with some influence from ancient South America, suggesting early contact between the two regions.
> - The island's landscape and resources were used ingeniously by the Rapa Nui people, with no evidence of a societal collapse.
> - The location of the moai and ahu platforms were strategically placed near vital resources like freshwater.
> - The introduction of disease and the impact of colonization were the main factors that led to the decline of the Rapa Nui population, not an environmental catastrophe caused by the islanders themselves.
> ---------------------------------
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 18:41:06 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 19:41:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New Easter Island Documentary (2024)
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6DjgJVYqPvm2xJsym1DC_TWXvsePK=PcsHCKxcMK0ZRw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>
 <F26F160E-9FDA-48E6-9B4A-7FBC966DAD3A@gmail.com>
 <CAL_armguEQpms7aGNzJd__ZJe40BwnB_tjkd7v9XsD2YrLBerg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB6DjgJVYqPvm2xJsym1DC_TWXvsePK=PcsHCKxcMK0ZRw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armifQTFJY-OS_f6-VF3nWFMwr+p_vS6pcPiDcfj4U+HFew@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 13 Jun 2024 at 19:06, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Diamonds analysis just makes sense.
>
> https://www.resilience.org/stories/2003-11-22/st-matthew-island-overshoot-collapse/
>
> Humans without relatively high-tech birth control are no better than reindeer.
>
> As for genes from South America, that would be expected given that the
> population was shipped off to SA as slaves for a generation or so
> before they were shipped back.
>
> When the island was first visited by Europeans they had no boats to
> make an ocean crossing.
>
> Keith
>---------------------------------------


They covered that in the video. They know about the slave traders and
the new genes from Chile, and the smallpox from returned slaves that
reduced the population to a few hundred.
The SA gene link they found was very old, one contact only, from
further north than Chile, before the Polynesians came to Rapa Nuhi.
The gene analysis was quite a long section in the video, because the
present population wanted to know where they originated from.
The video didn't discuss birth control, but they did say the
population never grew to more than a few thousand.
The locals were quite scornful about Europeans talking about the
'mysteries' of Rapa Nuhi because they didn't understand what life
there was like.

BillK

From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 19:04:37 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 12:04:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Easter Island Documentary (2024)
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armifQTFJY-OS_f6-VF3nWFMwr+p_vS6pcPiDcfj4U+HFew@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhPfQSXfOmCmxQrHReAjA7q0kzemsHNKqpDzrR3=oxXNg@mail.gmail.com>
 <F26F160E-9FDA-48E6-9B4A-7FBC966DAD3A@gmail.com>
 <CAL_armguEQpms7aGNzJd__ZJe40BwnB_tjkd7v9XsD2YrLBerg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB6DjgJVYqPvm2xJsym1DC_TWXvsePK=PcsHCKxcMK0ZRw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armifQTFJY-OS_f6-VF3nWFMwr+p_vS6pcPiDcfj4U+HFew@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6cByEjLrgSvjQ6w=2EB15Vzg-qegM6HaAgpc8-GbKHNA@mail.gmail.com>

Before the Europeans got there, the population had fallen from around
20,000 to under 2000.  Classic overshoot, some as the reindeer.  No
mystery that I see.

Keith

On Thu, Jun 13, 2024 at 11:42?AM BillK via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Thu, 13 Jun 2024 at 19:06, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Diamonds analysis just makes sense.
> >
> > https://www.resilience.org/stories/2003-11-22/st-matthew-island-overshoot-collapse/
> >
> > Humans without relatively high-tech birth control are no better than reindeer.
> >
> > As for genes from South America, that would be expected given that the
> > population was shipped off to SA as slaves for a generation or so
> > before they were shipped back.
> >
> > When the island was first visited by Europeans they had no boats to
> > make an ocean crossing.
> >
> > Keith
> >---------------------------------------
>
>
> They covered that in the video. They know about the slave traders and
> the new genes from Chile, and the smallpox from returned slaves that
> reduced the population to a few hundred.
> The SA gene link they found was very old, one contact only, from
> further north than Chile, before the Polynesians came to Rapa Nuhi.
> The gene analysis was quite a long section in the video, because the
> present population wanted to know where they originated from.
> The video didn't discuss birth control, but they did say the
> population never grew to more than a few thousand.
> The locals were quite scornful about Europeans talking about the
> 'mysteries' of Rapa Nuhi because they didn't understand what life
> there was like.
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Thu Jun 13 19:24:46 2024
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 21:24:46 +0200
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <003f01dabdac$04806980$0d813c80$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
 <SA1PR22MB5294390F6C739662592C855487FB2@SA1PR22MB5294.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
 <CAPoR7a4k6qCsuL2uSk0rsmGj9O4xheNOKQKakg0B9E+m_+Ke+g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003f01dabdac$04806980$0d813c80$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a7H8U420hyb3T_3DXtmHDRGObV=dmLgiq8Z_0L4Zk9uKQ@mail.gmail.com>

Thank you! The pleasure is entirely mine.

But for instance I took the time to publish this:. ??

https://amzn.eu/d/c2ooELQ

On Thu, 13 Jun 2024 at 18:09, <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
>
>
>
> On Fri, 7 Jun 2024 at 20:46, Natasha natashavita-more.com <
> natasha at natashavita-more.com> wrote:
>
> Hi Stefano,
>
>
>
> Seems pretty much aligned with my thinking. ??
>
>
>
> ??????
>
>
>
> Stefano
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Stefano, welcome back!  We wondered what had happened to you.
>
>
>
> spike
>


-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Jun 13 19:44:10 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 12:44:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a7H8U420hyb3T_3DXtmHDRGObV=dmLgiq8Z_0L4Zk9uKQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6hJxpfcXShauFY=LTTYZuqTYqc=VuaDo7hnZVb+MH5fA@mail.gmail.com>
 <SA1PR22MB5294390F6C739662592C855487FB2@SA1PR22MB5294.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
 <CAPoR7a4k6qCsuL2uSk0rsmGj9O4xheNOKQKakg0B9E+m_+Ke+g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003f01dabdac$04806980$0d813c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAPoR7a7H8U420hyb3T_3DXtmHDRGObV=dmLgiq8Z_0L4Zk9uKQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004b01dabdca$10816590$318430b0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> 
Sent: Thursday, 13 June, 2024 12:25 PM
To: spike at rainier66.com
Cc: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism

 

Thank you! The pleasure is entirely mine.

 

But for instance I took the time to publish this:. ??

 

https://amzn.eu/d/c2ooELQ

 

 

 

Cool, another published author in our circle.  Always remember that we knew ya before you were a big star.

 

spike

 

 

 

On Thu, 13 Jun 2024 at 18:09, <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> > On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] New Interview on Transhumanism

 

On Fri, 7 Jun 2024 at 20:46, Natasha natashavita-more.com <http://natashavita-more.com>  <natasha at natashavita-more.com <mailto:natasha at natashavita-more.com> > wrote:

Hi Stefano,

 

Seems pretty much aligned with my thinking. ??

 

??????

 

Stefano 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stefano, welcome back!  We wondered what had happened to you.

 

spike




 

-- 

Stefano Vaj

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From ExiMod at protonmail.com  Thu Jun 13 20:10:11 2024
From: ExiMod at protonmail.com (ExiMod)
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2024 20:10:11 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Test Links
Message-ID: <4tMadG7jNXJ_GTlpRSGsTLCe4r-_Hkzb5_F7ZnWNbwfRffuzgIjaUold62qdZZ8G1Quxpz5f0fvqMUnbcF6NBvMlTlRAi-oSKAmSxS_XRUw=@protonmail.com>

Just a test.
Regards, ExiMod
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Fri Jun 14 17:59:47 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 2024 10:59:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>

I am not a figure in the AI safety world (now called alignment), but I
have watched things develop for over 40 years.

The people who worked on the subject are frighteningly smart.  And
they have not made notable progress.  My suspicion is that it may not
be possible for humans to solve the alignment problem, in fact, it may
be something that cannot be solved at all.

Part of the reason is that a very well-aligned (but useful) AGI
combined with human desires could have undesired effects. About 18
years ago on the sl4 list, I wrote an AI story.  ?The Clinic Seed? was
about a well-aligned (friendly) nanotech-based medical AGI which (due
to human desires to live an easy life) made a population go
biologically extinct (they all uploaded).

I suspect that a useful AGI combined with human desires potentially
leads to this kind of extinction.  I also suspect that an AGI with
limitations to keep it from responding to human requests of this kind
would be catatonic or perhaps useless.

There were no follow-ups to the story.  Why I am not entirely sure,
but it could be that the sl4 people did not want to think about a
seemingly safe AI that, due to *human* characteristics, could result
in such an outcome.

There are negative aspects of waiting for people to solve the
alignment problem.  Presumably, AGI will help solve all kinds of
medical problems, even leading to effective immortality.  Delaying the
development condemns millions, perhaps billions to death.

Perhaps instead of worrying about the human species surviving, we
should see what we might be able to do in shaping our successors.



Keith


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Jun 14 18:39:42 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 2024 11:39:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>

>...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat

>...I have watched things develop for over 40 years.

>...The people who worked on the subject are frighteningly smart.  And they have not made notable progress.  My suspicion is that it may not be possible for humans to solve the alignment problem, in fact, it may be something that cannot be solved at all.

>...Part of the reason is that a very well-aligned (but useful) AGI combined with human desires could have undesired effects...Keith
_______________________________________________

Keith I reluctantly came to the same conclusion about 25 yrs ago at the peak of Eliezer's friendly AI movement.  There were a lot of local events talking about that problem in those days, and I used to hang out there, listening much, saying little.  Your arguments about why humans go to war had already convinced me by that time you are right.  But I also realized understanding the cause doesn't get us to a solution.  It only helps us understand why we are screwed: if we understand that nations go to war over scarce resources, then thru some miracle of technology and science manage to get everyone fed and laid, we still haven't solved the underlying problem.  It helps temporarily.  But if everyone is fed and laid, the population grows and soon they aren't anymore.

Regarding AGI aligned with human desires having undesired effects: I also came to that conclusion, but that one was easy for me, for a reason.  There is a category between conscientious objector (the Amish) and the warrior known as the conscientious cooperator.  The conscientious cooperator is the guy who recognizes that nations do go to war, there is nothing we can do to stop that at our level.  But if one participates in developing the technology to make attacking another nation more costly than the benefit, then that is a worthwhile pursuit, for it increases the chances that the conflict will be settled over the negotiating table rather than the battlefield.

Humans are human level intelligence, so we can think of us as biological AGI.  We are aligned with human desires and we cause undesired effects.  Stands to reason that AGI would do likewise.

But really it is worse than that.  In the last coupla years especially, many of us who have been singularity watchers for three decades have become convinced that now we really are getting close to that time, and that (as we feared) AI is being used by governments as a super weapon.  We are in the middle of a huge AI arms race.  Eliezer was right all along, or partly right.  He warned us this would happen, but he was convinced there was a way out.  I don't know that there is, and reluctantly conclude that this is one example of an element of the Great Filter which explains why the universe is not humming with artificial signals.

I know this is the ExI list, so my apologies for what must look like a terribly negative post, but I will end on a positive note, as is my wont, and simultaneously gives me a chance to use the funny-sounding word wont.  I believe there is hope.  I recognize humanity is in grave danger, but I firmly believe there is a chance we can prevent or avoid slaying ourselves.  I have not given up on us.  I would offer a bit more detail on that if I knew any, but suffice it to say I firmly believe there is a way, and we might find it in time.  This is my take on Dynamic Optimism: I live and work towards a version of AGI which peacefully coexists with the descendants of mankind.

spike




From foozler83 at gmail.com  Fri Jun 14 19:44:56 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 2024 14:44:56 -0500
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaaqagqS-VbQdnBSfRcDSRdMeV+h6RLxoJVhZuH6mo7vA@mail.gmail.com>

uploads etc.

If an upload can program itself to enjoy food, sex, travel -- or anything
at any time, where is the contrast?  Studies support the idea that we need
some average or worse times to enjoy the really good times.

Don't you think that a person who gets all the rewarding things and
experiences anytime he wants will get bored?  And everybody else can do the
same thing - we will all be equal.  Can we stand it?

The more we eat at one sitting the less it tastes good and so we quit.
Wired into us.  The only thing I know that is not susceptible to this
effect is stimulating the reward centers - like the rats who kept on
stimulating themselves and never stopped to eat and died of starvation.

bill w

On Fri, Jun 14, 2024 at 1:41?PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> >...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat
>
> >...I have watched things develop for over 40 years.
>
> >...The people who worked on the subject are frighteningly smart.  And
> they have not made notable progress.  My suspicion is that it may not be
> possible for humans to solve the alignment problem, in fact, it may be
> something that cannot be solved at all.
>
> >...Part of the reason is that a very well-aligned (but useful) AGI
> combined with human desires could have undesired effects...Keith
> _______________________________________________
>
> Keith I reluctantly came to the same conclusion about 25 yrs ago at the
> peak of Eliezer's friendly AI movement.  There were a lot of local events
> talking about that problem in those days, and I used to hang out there,
> listening much, saying little.  Your arguments about why humans go to war
> had already convinced me by that time you are right.  But I also realized
> understanding the cause doesn't get us to a solution.  It only helps us
> understand why we are screwed: if we understand that nations go to war over
> scarce resources, then thru some miracle of technology and science manage
> to get everyone fed and laid, we still haven't solved the underlying
> problem.  It helps temporarily.  But if everyone is fed and laid, the
> population grows and soon they aren't anymore.
>
> Regarding AGI aligned with human desires having undesired effects: I also
> came to that conclusion, but that one was easy for me, for a reason.  There
> is a category between conscientious objector (the Amish) and the warrior
> known as the conscientious cooperator.  The conscientious cooperator is the
> guy who recognizes that nations do go to war, there is nothing we can do to
> stop that at our level.  But if one participates in developing the
> technology to make attacking another nation more costly than the benefit,
> then that is a worthwhile pursuit, for it increases the chances that the
> conflict will be settled over the negotiating table rather than the
> battlefield.
>
> Humans are human level intelligence, so we can think of us as biological
> AGI.  We are aligned with human desires and we cause undesired effects.
> Stands to reason that AGI would do likewise.
>
> But really it is worse than that.  In the last coupla years especially,
> many of us who have been singularity watchers for three decades have become
> convinced that now we really are getting close to that time, and that (as
> we feared) AI is being used by governments as a super weapon.  We are in
> the middle of a huge AI arms race.  Eliezer was right all along, or partly
> right.  He warned us this would happen, but he was convinced there was a
> way out.  I don't know that there is, and reluctantly conclude that this is
> one example of an element of the Great Filter which explains why the
> universe is not humming with artificial signals.
>
> I know this is the ExI list, so my apologies for what must look like a
> terribly negative post, but I will end on a positive note, as is my wont,
> and simultaneously gives me a chance to use the funny-sounding word wont.
> I believe there is hope.  I recognize humanity is in grave danger, but I
> firmly believe there is a chance we can prevent or avoid slaying
> ourselves.  I have not given up on us.  I would offer a bit more detail on
> that if I knew any, but suffice it to say I firmly believe there is a way,
> and we might find it in time.  This is my take on Dynamic Optimism: I live
> and work towards a version of AGI which peacefully coexists with the
> descendants of mankind.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From efc at swisscows.email  Sat Jun 15 10:15:07 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2024 12:15:07 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <4fc4283d-65f1-600e-a044-b5652e05c9ca@swisscows.email>



On Fri, 14 Jun 2024, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote:

> laid, we still haven't solved the underlying problem.  It helps
> temporarily.  But if everyone is fed and laid, the population grows
> and soon they aren't anymore.

Then we'd have to expand to another planet, and another, bottom of the
sea and the top of the mountain. But true, even adding mars,
terraforming, space station ? la The Expanse etc. we'll grow out of our
own solar system. The interesting thing is how long time that will take,
and what we'll invent during the years. Also, of course, how long time
we have on this planet before having to move to another one or risk
negative outcomes.

Usually people laugh at me when I say this and call me unrealistic, but
I'm a long term optimist, and given how far we've come from the Savannah
already, I don't see any limits except time.

> Humans are human level intelligence, so we can think of us as
> biological AGI.  We are aligned with human desires and we cause
> undesired effects.  Stands to reason that AGI would do likewise.

Well, I'm not so sure. We don't know what intelligence is, and
we don't know the answer to AGI (yet). It could very well be that there
is a fundamental difference. Or, as you say, it could be one and the
same principle implemented in different mediums, with simlar pros and
cons.

> But really it is worse than that.  In the last coupla years
> especially, many of us who have been singularity watchers for three
> decades have become convinced that now we really are getting close to
> that time, and that (as we feared) AI is being used by governments as
> a super weapon.  We are in the middle of a huge AI arms race.  Eliezer

I treat it as the classic nuclear arms race. Of course everyone wants
everyone else to ban it, while secretly pursuing it themselves ? la the
prisoners dilemma. So bans will never work, because what will happen is
that the more authoritarian countries on the planet will continue R&D in
secret and then spring the surprise on the "naive" western democratic
world.

So I think we'll see a classical nuclear arms race, where perhaps a few
super powers have the resources to reach the goal at first. But what
will be interesting, is to see if the technology and resources required
will develop as technology usually does and spread.

We might have a silent chess game going on between the AI:s of the world
that we might, in the end, not even be aware of. We'll see shifts in
policy, small statements here and there, and in the end our wise
politicians just shrug their shoulders and follow along.

> I know this is the ExI list, so my apologies for what must look like a
> terribly negative post, but I will end on a positive note, as is my
> wont, and simultaneously gives me a chance to use the funny-sounding
> word wont.  I believe there is hope.  I recognize humanity is in grave
> danger, but I firmly believe there is a chance we can prevent or avoid
> slaying ourselves.  I have not given up on us.  I would offer a bit

I'm 100% convinced. We've had the capability of blowing ourselves to
pieces with nuclear for 70 years or so, and yet, despite all the mad men
alive and with enormous power, we've not done so.

That brings me great hope and confidence, that we'll handle this
challenge as well. =)

Best regards, 
Daniel


>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>

From efc at swisscows.email  Sat Jun 15 10:19:27 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2024 12:19:27 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaaqagqS-VbQdnBSfRcDSRdMeV+h6RLxoJVhZuH6mo7vA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaaqagqS-VbQdnBSfRcDSRdMeV+h6RLxoJVhZuH6mo7vA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <990d99de-8437-3a36-86fe-5ec4644f2472@swisscows.email>



On Fri, 14 Jun 2024, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote:

> Don't you think that a person who gets all the rewarding things and
> experiences anytime he wants will get bored?? And everybody else can
> do the same thing - we will all be equal.? Can we stand it?

In the physical world with physical bodies, I'd say no.

> The more we eat at one sitting the less it tastes good and so we
> quit.? Wired into us.? The only thing I know that is not susceptible
> to this effect is stimulating the reward centers - like the rats who
> kept on stimulating themselves and never stopped to eat and died of
> starvation.

Yes... and hedonistic dilemma of the pleasure machine! Why would a
hedonist prefer the real world?

I think pleasure is not one dimensional. It is multidimensional. The
machine maximizes one dimension while neglecting the others. Pleasure in
its most complex shape is also not time bound. It goes backwards and
forwards in time.

Of course you could argue that the machine fixes this as well, and that
it might even reach out and "touch" your time axis and other axles
without you first being in the machine and the only response I have is that, 
show me the machine in the real world first, and then we'll talk. ;)

Of course this is not a stringent and academic theory, but just a
conversation starter. ;)

Best regards, 
Daniel


> bill w
> 
> On Fri, Jun 14, 2024 at 1:41?PM spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       >...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat
>
>       >...I have watched things develop for over 40 years.
>
>       >...The people who worked on the subject are frighteningly smart.? And they have not made notable progress.? My suspicion
>       is that it may not be possible for humans to solve the alignment problem, in fact, it may be something that cannot be
>       solved at all.
>
>       >...Part of the reason is that a very well-aligned (but useful) AGI combined with human desires could have undesired
>       effects...Keith
>       _______________________________________________
>
>       Keith I reluctantly came to the same conclusion about 25 yrs ago at the peak of Eliezer's friendly AI movement.? There
>       were a lot of local events talking about that problem in those days, and I used to hang out there, listening much, saying
>       little.? Your arguments about why humans go to war had already convinced me by that time you are right.? But I also
>       realized understanding the cause doesn't get us to a solution.? It only helps us understand why we are screwed: if we
>       understand that nations go to war over scarce resources, then thru some miracle of technology and science manage to get
>       everyone fed and laid, we still haven't solved the underlying problem.? It helps temporarily.? But if everyone is fed and
>       laid, the population grows and soon they aren't anymore.
>
>       Regarding AGI aligned with human desires having undesired effects: I also came to that conclusion, but that one was easy
>       for me, for a reason.? There is a category between conscientious objector (the Amish) and the warrior known as the
>       conscientious cooperator.? The conscientious cooperator is the guy who recognizes that nations do go to war, there is
>       nothing we can do to stop that at our level.? But if one participates in developing the technology to make attacking
>       another nation more costly than the benefit, then that is a worthwhile pursuit, for it increases the chances that the
>       conflict will be settled over the negotiating table rather than the battlefield.
>
>       Humans are human level intelligence, so we can think of us as biological AGI.? We are aligned with human desires and we
>       cause undesired effects.? Stands to reason that AGI would do likewise.
>
>       But really it is worse than that.? In the last coupla years especially, many of us who have been singularity watchers for
>       three decades have become convinced that now we really are getting close to that time, and that (as we feared) AI is
>       being used by governments as a super weapon.? We are in the middle of a huge AI arms race.? Eliezer was right all along,
>       or partly right.? He warned us this would happen, but he was convinced there was a way out.? I don't know that there is,
>       and reluctantly conclude that this is one example of an element of the Great Filter which explains why the universe is
>       not humming with artificial signals.
>
>       I know this is the ExI list, so my apologies for what must look like a terribly negative post, but I will end on a
>       positive note, as is my wont, and simultaneously gives me a chance to use the funny-sounding word wont.? I believe there
>       is hope.? I recognize humanity is in grave danger, but I firmly believe there is a chance we can prevent or avoid slaying
>       ourselves.? I have not given up on us.? I would offer a bit more detail on that if I knew any, but suffice it to say I
>       firmly believe there is a way, and we might find it in time.? This is my take on Dynamic Optimism: I live and work
>       towards a version of AGI which peacefully coexists with the descendants of mankind.
>
>       spike
> 
> 
>
>       _______________________________________________
>       extropy-chat mailing list
>       extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>       http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> 
> 
>

From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Jun 15 18:04:50 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2024 11:04:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5mi=0T0QWrPsk7eX7=eKUNZmvyBpzGZ15h=_JWMCLMvw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Jun 14, 2024 at 11:39?AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>
> >...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat
>
> >...I have watched things develop for over 40 years.
>
> >...The people who worked on the subject are frighteningly smart.  And they have not made notable progress.  My suspicion is that it may not be possible for humans to solve the alignment problem, in fact, it may be something that cannot be solved at all.
>
> >...Part of the reason is that a very well-aligned (but useful) AGI combined with human desires could have undesired effects...Keith
> _______________________________________________
>
> Keith I reluctantly came to the same conclusion about 25 yrs ago at the peak of Eliezer's friendly AI movement.  There were a lot of local events talking about that problem in those days, and I used to hang out there, listening much, saying little.

And there was never a hint of a solution.

> Your arguments about why humans go to war had already convinced me by that time you are right.

The evolved psychological trait humans have is the reason I made a
strong case for not modeling AIs on human brains.

> But I also realized understanding the cause doesn't get us to a solution.  It only helps us understand why we are screwed: if we understand that nations go to war over scarce resources, then thru some miracle of technology and science manage to get everyone fed and laid, we still haven't solved the underlying problem.  It helps temporarily.  But if everyone is fed and laid, the population grows and soon they aren't anymore.

The world of The Clinic Seed solved that problem by no reproduction in
the (much more desirable) uploaded state.

> Regarding AGI aligned with human desires having undesired effects: I also came to that conclusion, but that one was easy for me, for a reason.  There is a category between conscientious objector (the Amish) and the warrior known as the conscientious cooperator.  The conscientious cooperator is the guy who recognizes that nations do go to war, there is nothing we can do to stop that at our level.  But if one participates in developing the technology to make attacking another nation more costly than the benefit, then that is a worthwhile pursuit, for it increases the chances that the conflict will be settled over the negotiating table rather than the battlefield.

Most humans evolved the psychological traits for wars long, long
before there were nation-states.  Good points though.  And good
weapons make it a lot more likely your side will win.

> Humans are human level intelligence, so we can think of us as biological AGI.  We are aligned with human desires and we cause undesired effects.  Stands to reason that AGI would do likewise.

Perhaps.  Humans are not the same though.  The San people do not seem
to have evolved the psychological characteristics for war.  The reason
may have been because they have the lowest fertility of any human
group.

> But really it is worse than that.  In the last coupla years especially, many of us who have been singularity watchers for three decades have become convinced that now we really are getting close to that time, and that (as we feared) AI is being used by governments as a super weapon.

Could be.  But the prime use of intelligence is making good decisions.
Human intelligence is influenced by
"evolved-in-the-Stone-Age-psychological-traits" that were good for the
genes behind such traits.  Machine intelligence might make better
decisions than humans.

> We are in the middle of a huge AI arms race.  Eliezer was right all along, or partly right.  He warned us this would happen, but he was convinced there was a way out.  I don't know that there is, and reluctantly conclude that this is one example of an element of the Great Filter which explains why the universe is not humming with artificial signals.

Human desires make safe and useful AI impossible.  But as you know
from my postings on the subject, I suspect that what we see at
Tabby's Star is advanced aliens.  If what we see in the light dips is
not dust clouds, then they are uploads living in data centers about
400 times the area of the Earth and using around 1.4 million times our
total energy use.  The objects are around 7 AU out from the star which
makes them cold, optimal for low error computation.

If this is true,  there are upsides and downsides.  Upside is that
something made it through their local singularity, and the downside is
that we have competition.

> I know this is the ExI list, so my apologies for what must look like a terribly negative post, but I will end on a positive note, as is my wont, and simultaneously gives me a chance to use the funny-sounding word wont.  I believe there is hope.  I recognize humanity is in grave danger, but I firmly believe there is a chance we can prevent or avoid slaying ourselves.  I have not given up on us.  I would offer a bit more detail on that if I knew any, but suffice it to say I firmly believe there is a way, and we might find it in time.  This is my take on Dynamic Optimism: I live and work towards a version of AGI which peacefully coexists with the descendants of mankind.

I agree.  In any case, putting a halt to AI development is not feasible.

Keith

> spike
>
>


From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Jun 15 18:21:50 2024
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2024 11:21:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5mi=0T0QWrPsk7eX7=eKUNZmvyBpzGZ15h=_JWMCLMvw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
 <CAPiwVB5mi=0T0QWrPsk7eX7=eKUNZmvyBpzGZ15h=_JWMCLMvw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <008b01dabf50$e49ca150$add5e3f0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> 
...

>...The world of The Clinic Seed solved that problem by no reproduction in the (much more desirable) uploaded state...

Keith your sequel to the Clinic Seed could be about a population of meat humans who resisted uploading, stayed behind in the meter-scale world, but figured out how to communicate with the uploads.  The uploads identified the virtual infidels, then the few remaining humans erased or turned off the power to that subset of the virtual population in order to enable themselves to upload into an infidel-free virtual reality, populated entire with fidels, where they spend every code instruction, every clock cycle, worshiping their virtual deity of choice.

spike





From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Jun 15 21:00:38 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2024 14:00:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <008b01dabf50$e49ca150$add5e3f0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
 <CAPiwVB5mi=0T0QWrPsk7eX7=eKUNZmvyBpzGZ15h=_JWMCLMvw@mail.gmail.com>
 <008b01dabf50$e49ca150$add5e3f0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6pc0F48v6gZv7OVa491P1vSy9j8urPKZcWEEC2jzCdWg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jun 15, 2024 at 11:21?AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>.
>
> >...The world of The Clinic Seed solved that problem by no reproduction in the (much more desirable) uploaded state...
>
> Keith your sequel to the Clinic Seed could be about a population of meat humans who resisted uploading, stayed behind in the meter-scale world, but figured out how to communicate with the uploads.

There is part of another chapter that was posted 8 years ago here:
https://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/2016-April/087377.html

I can't find the rest of that chapter on the net, but I have mentioned
in a previous chapter how hard it would be to communicate with people
or uploads running at significantly faster or slower clock rates.

Anders Sandberg commented that even in 2016 AIs were writing papers.

>  The uploads identified the virtual infidels, then the few remaining humans erased or turned off the power to that subset of the virtual population in order to enable themselves to upload into an infidel-free virtual reality, populated entire with fidels, where they spend every code instruction, every clock cycle, worshiping their virtual deity of choice.

Possible I suppose, but I doubt there would be a shortage of compute
cycles for uploads.  On the other hand, if Tabby's Star and the other
24 dipping stars are due to aliens, then they have spread out, pushed
by something akin to population pressure.

The old saying "there are no gods--yet"  might apply.  There seems to
be a niche for synthetic girlfriends/boyfriends, is there one for an
AI god?  One you can talk to on the phone?  Dare we suggest this to
Apple?

Here is the rest of what I think is not on the net anywhere


Chapter 5


June 2106

Seven thirty a.m. the next morning, well after the sun peeped over the
Eastern hills, Jim Brody drove a little electric truck over from Seton
Hill and (with the help of a few kids who had woken up early) loaded
the dining car in the middle of the train with breakfast and lunch.
Dumping the wastewater tanks and refilling the water supplies in the
cars would have to wait.

At 7:45, Ed Bledsoe lit off the diesels, cranking them from local
power, and let them warm up.  Even with metering automation, Ed knew
the engines would smoke under load if they were not warmed up
properly.

By 8 am, the last of the parents had straggled down to the station.

Half a dozen boys and two girls (early risers who had not stayed up
past midnight) came out when the engine
http://www.railfan.net/railpix/scott/subphoto.cgi?st-perris/e8fnt02.jpg
was started.  Jim Brody, ticking off the parents as they came aboard
and consulting an unseen list of kids so they would all get at least
one ride in the cab, picked out a boy and a girl and sent them up the
ladder, letting the parents know where their kids were.  He also
pulled the connector to local power and put the conductive nanotube
power cable back in its compartment.

"All aboard!"

Jim gave the proper historical hand signals to the engineer, backed up
by the engineer being aware of his signal by mind-to-mind local area
contact.  As Jim closed the doors, Ed advanced the throttle slowly to
1/2 and then to 3/4.  This woke up even the sleepiest of the kids.
With or without the help of adults they converted the bunks back into
seats.

They either trooped off to the dining car in the middle of the train
or ate from the trolley pushed by two of the older girls who had
talked Jim into letting them do it.  The main choice (made up by the
University dining hall kitchen staff the night before) was scrambled
egg, cheese, ham and bell pepper mix rolled up in a steamed flour
tortilla and a choice of fruits.  The adults and some of the older
kids drank coffee and the younger kids had milk or chocolate milk in
historically correct glass bottles.

Being from Trenton, all of the older kids had been in both New York to
the northeast and Philadelphia to the southwest on school outings.
Like those two cities, Pittsburgh had been mothballed 50 years ago in
the population crash.

Like all the major cities, the suburbs of Pittsburgh had become
manicured parkland.  With some exceptions, the houses had been
encapsulated with diamond and sunk underground often with their
occupants.  The streets were visible in some places and replaced with
grass in others.  There were many deer.  They didn't see any wolves.

As they neared the more built up center section of the town, the
bigger buildings had the sheen of diamond sheeting when the light hit
them right.  Ed slowed the train to 40 mph so the kids could get a
good look

An hour and a half after they left Greensburg the train pulled into
the huge covered platforms in the Pennsylvanian Union Train Station.
The platform roof had been partly removed at one time to accommodate a
freeway.  The train buffs had won out over the auto buffs, the
concrete roadway beams had been replaced by thinner diamond beams and
the train platform roof restored.
http://www.bluffton.edu/~sullivanm/burnham/burnham5.html

The kids and adults spilled out of the train and walked through the
hotel lobby--which had also been the original ticket lobby--to the
rotunda that had originally sheltered horse carriages.    Ed and Jim
Brody went with the kids and parents.

Mike DeLong (fireman, brakeman and alternate engineer) was left in
charge of the train.  He dragged a hose over to the idling E8 and
filled up the oil tank, dumped the wastewater tanks on the passenger
cars and refilled their water tanks.   The diesel oil today was from
soybeans.  Filling the tanks by hand was a concession to primitive
technology that he didn't mind.

The train station had been built around 1900 and renovated 80 years
later with the associated hotel being turned into condominiums.   The
condominiums were still ?occupied? in the sense that the bodies of the
owners were still in the building or more correctly under it.  In the
rare event one of them came out for a stroll in the physical world,
their body was lifted to their condo before their consciousness was
shifted into their warmed up brain.

The rest of the time, bodies were kept underground.  ?Occupied?
buildings were reinforced with grown-in-place carbon nanotubes but the
clinic AIs would be unhappy if their patients were not kept as safe as
possible and that meant underground.

When Ed and Jim reached the Rotunda, most of the kids were clustered
in the center looking up at the skylight with smaller numbers of them
looking out the archways.  The skylight was entrancing with the
morning sunlight hitting the ridged diamond panes that had replaced
the original glass.  They were scattering rainbows all over the floor.

With some difficulty the children were rounded up and herded down the
deserted streets, first south, passing in front of the Mellon Arena,
fully ten times larger than the train station rotunda, then east on
Forbes Ave toward the campuses of the University of Pittsburgh and
Carnegie Mellon University.  The three-mile walk through the deserted
city streets took about 40 minutes with the adults carrying the
smallest when they got tired.  (They could have had carriages with
real horses if they had wanted them.)

Like most urban schools, the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie
Mellon University had been shut down in the population crash.  When
cities went under about 10 percent of their original population, they
became just too depressing for humans to live in.

However, like infrastructure everywhere, the city and Universities
were well maintained, roads and sidewalks clean, grass mowed, trees
trimmed, and the buildings clean and without a broken window or a
sagging roof anywhere.   Electric power and water was on, gas as well
though it was not used for heating, having been displaced by electric
heat and super insulation.  Unless buildings were in use by physical
state humans, they were kept cold inside (but not freezing) winter and
summer alike to slow down degradation of photographs, paper and other
physical artifacts from the pre crash era.

As they were crossing the bridge on Forbes Avenue over the train
tracks between Carnegie Mellon University and the University of
Pittsburgh, Kenny caught up with the engineer.

?Mr. Bledsoe??  Kenny asked as they walked along.

?Eh??

?Did they get the idea for the Krell planet from Pittsburgh??

?Krell planet??

?In the movie we saw last night.  The planet was deserted except for
the machines.?

?Oh, you saw Forbidden Planet last night.  No, Forbidden Planet was
made 100 years before Pittsburgh was mothballed.?

?Why do we call cities ?mothballed??  Does it have anything to do with moths??

?Actually it does.?  Ed replied, as usual, happy to be educating
children by the oldest method.

?The larvae of some kinds of moths eat clothing and blankets made of
wool.  More than 200 years ago, early chemistry workers discovered
that a sharp smelling solid chemical from coal called naphthalene
would keep the moths out of clothes. ?

They paused at a Walk/Don?t Walk light turned on for the party?s
amusement by one of the city?s AIs.  Ed went on:

?It was sold in little balls (Ed held his thumb and finger apart about
half an inch) called ?moth balls.?  People would store winter clothing
and blankets over the summer with a handful of them.

?Eventually ?mothballed? came to mean anything that was protected and
stored for possible future use.?

Kenny looked thoughtful.

?How come adults know everything?? He asked.

Ed laughed.  ?We cheat.?

Thirty years in the past the AIs tasked with remembering and making
presentations to CMU visitors would have run up a palace of utility
fog on the mall and presented a 3D docudrama on the historical events
around the emergence of AIs at CMU.

Now, in deference to the attempt to raise children in a retro
environment with features of the 1950s, the adults were directed by
messages to their neural interfaces to the McConomy Auditorium, a 110
year-old theater in Carnegie Mellon?s central buildings.  The
20-minute presentation to the adults and older kids (the younger ones
could watch or play on the lawn) was in black and white newsreels
format, much of it converted from video of press conferences.

?Even with a nearly complete historical record from those times, it?s
hard to pin down when the first AIs became full personalities.?   The
narrator spoke in a voice over showing primitive robots and computers.

?The problem isn?t unique to AI history, there is a similar problem
about the first railroad."  (Montage of drawings and photographs of
early trains.)  "About the best we can say is that what we now think
of as AIs didn?t exist before 2032 and definitely did by 2036.  In
that year there were more than a hundred scientific papers co-authored
by AIs.   Carnegie Mellon was in the forefront of this effort."
(Shots of University labs and bits of recorded slow interactions with
early AIs.)  "The key insight was to equip AIs with carefully selected
human motivations."

?The two biggest problems of the early 21 century were energy and
medical treatment.  CMU researchers contributed to both.

?Solar power from orbit solved, in fact, over solved, the first by
2035.?  (Shots of space elevators and power satellites in orbit,
photos of rectenna farms.)

?Integrating AIs into nanomedicine clinics solved the medical
treatment problem.  It took only a few years.  After that AIs and
clinics could be ?grown? at low cost and they did their own upgrades,
a lot of it in the field in Africa.  They were too late for the
smallpox epidemics that swept out of the Mid East.

?A side effect of the clinics and widespread use of virtual reality
caused a physical world population crash in the mid 2050s and the
mothballing of the cities.?  (Simulated video of dense freeway traffic
dwindling to an occasional car and then none.)

The rest of the presentation was subtle propaganda mainly to the
children and directed to the goal of them doing their part in
enlarging the population.

*****

After filling up the tanks, Mike backed the empty train out of the
station.  He operated the first switch he came to remotely, backed the
holiday train under the main line, down the Neville street tracks,
under Forbes Ave. and stopped just north of Panther Hollow Lake.
Stairs and a rudimentary platform had been installed along the
depressed rail line.

Mike set the brakes and shut down the engines.  Only the chirping of
birds broke the quiet that settled over the train.  Mike sent a
message to Ed that the train was ready for its passengers when they
were.  Then, using a small bucket of utility fog for a mattress, he
settled down under a shade tree and took a nap to make up for staying
up most of the night with friends in Greensburg.

Keith

(Please remember this was written in 2006 or 2007 and has to a
considerable extent been overrun by events.)


> spike
>
>
>


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Jun 17 22:55:11 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2024 15:55:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3xmrqWx5gvoObxhA5PnzvTeBh3CC32WbOYPM=oTq_Qkg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3xmrqWx5gvoObxhA5PnzvTeBh3CC32WbOYPM=oTq_Qkg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7HqfNbXpMD3B+FNzw2Mbc=kOD4MC_qU4Dkf5G3OM0zQw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Jun 14, 2024 at 11:34?AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Fri, Jun 14, 2024 at 2:00?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> > ?The Clinic Seed? was about a well-aligned (friendly) nanotech-based medical AGI which (due
>> to human desires to live an easy life) made a population go biologically extinct (they all uploaded).
>
> If I remember correctly it was a very optimistic story, I hope things turn out that way.

Hmm.  I would call it ambiguous rather than optimistic.  At the end of
the story, the leopard gets to sleep in the empty village and the
human race is (locally) biologically extinct.

>> > There are negative aspects of waiting for people to solve the alignment problem.
>
> If that means making sure that no matter how powerful it becomes a super intelligent AI will always place our interests above its own then the "alignment problem" will never be solved, however if it means making sure that super intelligence is achieved first in the US, Europe Japan South Korea or Taiwan and not China, then that does seem like an achievable goal, although it will take effort. We can't be sure that even a US derived Superintelligence will not exterminate us, but I think our odds would be better than if we were dealing with a Chinese derived Superintelligence.

Perhaps, I just don't know.  For a while, the Chinese stopped AI work
because they could not count on AIs following the CCP dogma.  It might
be that AIs are going to settle into the same place no matter who
develops them.

Keith

> Although I'm not thrilled with the prospect of convicted felon and professional imbecile Donald Trump being the key man in all of this.
>
>> > Presumably, AGI will help solve all kinds of medical problems, even leading to effective immortality. Delaying the development condemns millions, perhaps billions to death. Perhaps instead of worrying about the human species surviving, we should see what we might be able to do in shaping our successors."
>
>
> WELL SAID!
>
> John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 3x5
>
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "extropolis" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAJPayv3xmrqWx5gvoObxhA5PnzvTeBh3CC32WbOYPM%3DoTq_Qkg%40mail.gmail.com.


From jasonresch at gmail.com  Tue Jun 18 09:16:26 2024
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 05:16:26 -0400
Subject: [ExI] AI alignment
In-Reply-To: <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4aFFUhAkgPMk0n+hSUDmZtxjSaz0_SJGwCzT5r-ALskQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <009901dabe8a$39324110$ab96c330$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUi2vjRq=b6Ma9nef5FCOCZp5_RdhQgHqmBCZ3BN=ga9YA@mail.gmail.com>

I think there is hope that superintelligence will tend to moral behavior,
given the argument presented here:

https://youtu.be/Yy3SKed25eM

Jason

On Fri, Jun 14, 2024, 2:40 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> >...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat
>
> >...I have watched things develop for over 40 years.
>
> >...The people who worked on the subject are frighteningly smart.  And
> they have not made notable progress.  My suspicion is that it may not be
> possible for humans to solve the alignment problem, in fact, it may be
> something that cannot be solved at all.
>
> >...Part of the reason is that a very well-aligned (but useful) AGI
> combined with human desires could have undesired effects...Keith
> _______________________________________________
>
> Keith I reluctantly came to the same conclusion about 25 yrs ago at the
> peak of Eliezer's friendly AI movement.  There were a lot of local events
> talking about that problem in those days, and I used to hang out there,
> listening much, saying little.  Your arguments about why humans go to war
> had already convinced me by that time you are right.  But I also realized
> understanding the cause doesn't get us to a solution.  It only helps us
> understand why we are screwed: if we understand that nations go to war over
> scarce resources, then thru some miracle of technology and science manage
> to get everyone fed and laid, we still haven't solved the underlying
> problem.  It helps temporarily.  But if everyone is fed and laid, the
> population grows and soon they aren't anymore.
>
> Regarding AGI aligned with human desires having undesired effects: I also
> came to that conclusion, but that one was easy for me, for a reason.  There
> is a category between conscientious objector (the Amish) and the warrior
> known as the conscientious cooperator.  The conscientious cooperator is the
> guy who recognizes that nations do go to war, there is nothing we can do to
> stop that at our level.  But if one participates in developing the
> technology to make attacking another nation more costly than the benefit,
> then that is a worthwhile pursuit, for it increases the chances that the
> conflict will be settled over the negotiating table rather than the
> battlefield.
>
> Humans are human level intelligence, so we can think of us as biological
> AGI.  We are aligned with human desires and we cause undesired effects.
> Stands to reason that AGI would do likewise.
>
> But really it is worse than that.  In the last coupla years especially,
> many of us who have been singularity watchers for three decades have become
> convinced that now we really are getting close to that time, and that (as
> we feared) AI is being used by governments as a super weapon.  We are in
> the middle of a huge AI arms race.  Eliezer was right all along, or partly
> right.  He warned us this would happen, but he was convinced there was a
> way out.  I don't know that there is, and reluctantly conclude that this is
> one example of an element of the Great Filter which explains why the
> universe is not humming with artificial signals.
>
> I know this is the ExI list, so my apologies for what must look like a
> terribly negative post, but I will end on a positive note, as is my wont,
> and simultaneously gives me a chance to use the funny-sounding word wont.
> I believe there is hope.  I recognize humanity is in grave danger, but I
> firmly believe there is a chance we can prevent or avoid slaying
> ourselves.  I have not given up on us.  I would offer a bit more detail on
> that if I knew any, but suffice it to say I firmly believe there is a way,
> and we might find it in time.  This is my take on Dynamic Optimism: I live
> and work towards a version of AGI which peacefully coexists with the
> descendants of mankind.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Wed Jun 19 11:33:01 2024
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 2024 13:33:01 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Keith Wiley
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4WYNhJJtXj1RbP6ge+5kPFNWvz9Uved6xS2kTEmxS6mg@mail.gmail.com>

I am trying to contact the author of "A Taxonomy and Metaphysics of
Mind-Uploading", who I understand to be a US national resident in Seattle,
and I was wondering whether he is on these mailgroups or anybody has an
e-mail address at hand...

Thank you in advance to anybody who may be able to provide assistance.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed Jun 19 13:14:02 2024
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 2024 06:14:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Keith Wiley
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a4WYNhJJtXj1RbP6ge+5kPFNWvz9Uved6xS2kTEmxS6mg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a4WYNhJJtXj1RbP6ge+5kPFNWvz9Uved6xS2kTEmxS6mg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <B6746BAE-0D11-466D-8E71-62715D4D3C59@gmail.com>

On Jun 19, 2024, at 4:35?AM, Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> I am trying to contact the author of "A Taxonomy and Metaphysics of Mind-Uploading", who I understand to be a US national resident in Seattle, and I was wondering whether he is on these mailgroups or anybody has an e-mail address at hand... 
> 
> Thank you in advance to anybody who may be able to provide assistance.
> 
> --
> Stefano Vaj

He is on FB. His profile is public. Have you tried there?

Regards,

Dan

From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Jun 19 22:10:56 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 2024 15:10:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Keith Wiley
In-Reply-To: <B6746BAE-0D11-466D-8E71-62715D4D3C59@gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a4WYNhJJtXj1RbP6ge+5kPFNWvz9Uved6xS2kTEmxS6mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <B6746BAE-0D11-466D-8E71-62715D4D3C59@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7nyC14A2FQJUv6SiUe0tFVTHPjwy8KdDJrCwUuOXku1w@mail.gmail.com>

"This time the nanomachines didn't infiltrate her brain just to shut
it down, though they did that and reversed the mild damage from shock
and low blood flow.   The nanomachines mapped out all her neural
circuits and cell connections.  Shortly before her parents entered the
clinic the next day they tentatively restored consciousness, partly in
her brain--which was far below the temperature needed to run on its
own--and partly in the haze of nanomachines that were also simulating
input in place of her eyes and ears."

Keith

On Wed, Jun 19, 2024 at 6:15?AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Jun 19, 2024, at 4:35?AM, Stefano Vaj via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> > I am trying to contact the author of "A Taxonomy and Metaphysics of Mind-Uploading", who I understand to be a US national resident in Seattle, and I was wondering whether he is on these mailgroups or anybody has an e-mail address at hand...
> >
> > Thank you in advance to anybody who may be able to provide assistance.
> >
> > --
> > Stefano Vaj
>
> He is on FB. His profile is public. Have you tried there?
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Jun 20 20:33:37 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 20 Jun 2024 15:33:37 -0500
Subject: [ExI] protecting children
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbXui+xogtSqB-479symSOC8Fkm3gxpRvB_fLmUZo0Aqg@mail.gmail.com>

Check on the story about the NY governor signing legislation to protect
children on media sites.

?the most dangerous aspects of social media, the addictive algorithm feeds
that exploit impressionable minds.?  NY Attorney General
Is this saying that adults don't have impressionable minds?

A marketing person would say that what is called 'addictive' means that it
encourages the user to keep reading, for one thing.  And that would be a
good feature of the software.  Calling it 'addictive' is misleading at
best.  Making the site attractive is what the site wants.  Who knows what
will result in addiction (if there is such a thing).  How is that different
from liking it a lot?

I am all for requiring parents to OK downloads and for privacy issues - of
course.

Go back in time 50 years.  Tell a grocer to put a cart at the end of an
aisle, put products into it along with the usual price.  People will think
it's on sale.  Is this ethical?  Can't we use psychology?

bill w
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jun 20 23:42:10 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 00:42:10 +0100
Subject: [ExI] 'Beneficial' AI
Message-ID: <CAL_armit8jPUe1sgZRTC8p2ukwKNG_E9dSeRtsM6gAdfM1vi8A@mail.gmail.com>

I have just been chatting to the new Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which is
claimed to be better than GPT-4o. It followed the standard line that
AL should be developed as being beneficial to all humanity.
I suggested that humans would probably want their AI to be beneficial
to themselves, but not to competitors or enemies.
Claude seemed to be rather worried by this suggestion.
And that final paragraph is just wishful hoping and praying that
everybody will play nice together.
Claude obviously hasn't been watching the news recently.
BillK

Claude 3.5 Sonnet -
You raise an important and nuanced point. The concept of "beneficial
AI" is indeed complex and potentially fraught with conflicting
interpretations. You're correct that there's a risk of humans defining
"beneficial" in a self-serving or exclusionary way.
Some key considerations:

1. Scope of benefit: Different groups might define "beneficial" very
differently. Some may prioritize benefits for their own nation, ethnic
group, or ideological allies.

2. Power dynamics: Those with the resources to develop advanced AI
systems might shape the definition of "beneficial" to maintain their
own power and advantages.

3. Unintended consequences: Even well-intentioned efforts to create
"beneficial" AI could have negative impacts on certain groups if not
carefully considered.

4. Competing values: Different cultures and societies have varying
value systems, making a universally agreed-upon definition of
"beneficial" challenging.

5. Short-term vs. long-term benefits: What's seen as beneficial in the
short term might have negative long-term consequences.

6. Existential risk: Some argue that truly beneficial AI should
prioritize the long-term survival and flourishing of humanity as a
whole, transcending current divisions.

These concerns highlight why many AI ethicists and researchers
emphasize the importance of inclusive, diverse perspectives in AI
development and governance. They argue for frameworks that consider
the wellbeing of all humanity and even other sentient beings.

However, you're right to point out that in practice, the development
of AI is often driven by nations, corporations, or individuals with
their own interests. This creates a real risk of AI systems being
optimized for narrow definitions of "benefit" that could harm or
disadvantage others.

This dilemma underscores the importance of ongoing dialogue,
international cooperation, and ethical frameworks in AI development.
It's a complex challenge without easy solutions, but one that's
crucial to address as AI becomes more powerful and influential.
-----------------------

From sen.otaku at gmail.com  Fri Jun 21 12:31:03 2024
From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard)
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 08:31:03 -0400
Subject: [ExI] protecting children
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbXui+xogtSqB-479symSOC8Fkm3gxpRvB_fLmUZo0Aqg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbXui+xogtSqB-479symSOC8Fkm3gxpRvB_fLmUZo0Aqg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <33A7A3F0-56BB-4F2B-A990-47BC794AB96D@gmail.com>

It?s wrong to say that an addictive algorithm ?keeps kids reading?, brcause the content they prefer is short form video. 

Heavy introduction to video, especially short form, before learning to read, dramatically reduces interest in reading, especially long form content like books.

SR Ballard

> On Jun 20, 2024, at 4:34?PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> 
> ?
> Check on the story about the NY governor signing legislation to protect children on media sites.
> 
> ?the most dangerous aspects of social media, the addictive algorithm feeds that exploit impressionable minds.?  NY Attorney General
> Is this saying that adults don't have impressionable minds?
> 
> A marketing person would say that what is called 'addictive' means that it encourages the user to keep reading, for one thing.  And that would be a good feature of the software.  Calling it 'addictive' is misleading at best.  Making the site attractive is what the site wants.  Who knows what will result in addiction (if there is such a thing).  How is that different from liking it a lot?
> 
> I am all for requiring parents to OK downloads and for privacy issues - of course.  
> 
> Go back in time 50 years.  Tell a grocer to put a cart at the end of an aisle, put products into it along with the usual price.  People will think it's on sale.  Is this ethical?  Can't we use psychology?
> 
> bill w
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Fri Jun 21 13:09:19 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 08:09:19 -0500
Subject: [ExI] protecting children
In-Reply-To: <33A7A3F0-56BB-4F2B-A990-47BC794AB96D@gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbXui+xogtSqB-479symSOC8Fkm3gxpRvB_fLmUZo0Aqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <33A7A3F0-56BB-4F2B-A990-47BC794AB96D@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYh0A5f2mK7gCZJkt8zCML0zZ8+XMF7+GawTskUx155zg@mail.gmail.com>

What I meant by an addictive thing on the media site was just something
that kept people on the site - not necessarily reading.  bill w

On Fri, Jun 21, 2024 at 7:33?AM SR Ballard via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> It?s wrong to say that an addictive algorithm ?keeps kids reading?,
> brcause the content they prefer is short form video.
>
> Heavy introduction to video, especially short form, before learning to
> read, dramatically reduces interest in reading, especially long form
> content like books.
>
> SR Ballard
>
> On Jun 20, 2024, at 4:34?PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> ?
> Check on the story about the NY governor signing legislation to protect
> children on media sites.
>
> ?the most dangerous aspects of social media, the addictive algorithm feeds
> that exploit impressionable minds.?  NY Attorney General
> Is this saying that adults don't have impressionable minds?
>
> A marketing person would say that what is called 'addictive' means that it
> encourages the user to keep reading, for one thing.  And that would be a
> good feature of the software.  Calling it 'addictive' is misleading at
> best.  Making the site attractive is what the site wants.  Who knows what
> will result in addiction (if there is such a thing).  How is that different
> from liking it a lot?
>
> I am all for requiring parents to OK downloads and for privacy issues - of
> course.
>
> Go back in time 50 years.  Tell a grocer to put a cart at the end of an
> aisle, put products into it along with the usual price.  People will think
> it's on sale.  Is this ethical?  Can't we use psychology?
>
> bill w
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sat Jun 22 01:46:49 2024
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 18:46:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] protecting children
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYh0A5f2mK7gCZJkt8zCML0zZ8+XMF7+GawTskUx155zg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEYh0A5f2mK7gCZJkt8zCML0zZ8+XMF7+GawTskUx155zg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <40752A68-4FBE-4F35-9AC6-02C593191011@gmail.com>

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Jun 22 11:41:56 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 22 Jun 2024 06:41:56 -0500
Subject: [ExI] protecting children
In-Reply-To: <40752A68-4FBE-4F35-9AC6-02C593191011@gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEYh0A5f2mK7gCZJkt8zCML0zZ8+XMF7+GawTskUx155zg@mail.gmail.com>
 <40752A68-4FBE-4F35-9AC6-02C593191011@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEar49TLWC3VGfykBr9qmk_XURw=uA4KQ6t8CWxYu0mExA@mail.gmail.com>

Cass Sunstein is a co-author of a book with Kahneman (who recently died age
90) called Noise - for my money a much more important book than Thinking
Fast and Slow (which is highly important but more of a theoretical book)
for practical purposes.  Error is divided into bias and noise (statistical
noise - unwanted variation).  Much attention is paid to bias but little to
noise.  This book could be a bible for strongly reducing it if applied in
the corporate world.  More strongly recommended than any book I have ever
touted.  Essential if you run a company.

bill w

On Fri, Jun 21, 2024 at 8:48?PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Would a ?devil?s dictionary? definition of addiction be ?repetitive
> behavior you do not approve of?? And good habits would then be defined as
> ?repetitive behavior you do approve of?? (Using ?you? rhetorically, of
> course.)
>
> Also, wouldn?t Cass Sunstein fans be all in favor of nudging kids away
> from this stuff? (I?m not a Cass Sunstein fan, but recall one person here
> going ga ga over him a few years ago.;)
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>
> On Jun 21, 2024, at 6:11?AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>
> What I meant by an addictive thing on the media site was just something
> that kept people on the site - not necessarily reading.  bill w
>
> On Fri, Jun 21, 2024 at 7:33?AM SR Ballard via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> It?s wrong to say that an addictive algorithm ?keeps kids reading?,
>> brcause the content they prefer is short form video.
>>
>> Heavy introduction to video, especially short form, before learning to
>> read, dramatically reduces interest in reading, especially long form
>> content like books.
>>
>> SR Ballard
>>
>> On Jun 20, 2024, at 4:34?PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> ?
>> Check on the story about the NY governor signing legislation to protect
>> children on media sites.
>>
>> ?the most dangerous aspects of social media, the addictive algorithm
>> feeds that exploit impressionable minds.?  NY Attorney General
>> Is this saying that adults don't have impressionable minds?
>>
>> A marketing person would say that what is called 'addictive' means that
>> it encourages the user to keep reading, for one thing.  And that would be a
>> good feature of the software.  Calling it 'addictive' is misleading at
>> best.  Making the site attractive is what the site wants.  Who knows what
>> will result in addiction (if there is such a thing).  How is that different
>> from liking it a lot?
>>
>> I am all for requiring parents to OK downloads and for privacy issues -
>> of course.
>>
>> Go back in time 50 years.  Tell a grocer to put a cart at the end of an
>> aisle, put products into it along with the usual price.  People will think
>> it's on sale.  Is this ethical?  Can't we use psychology?
>>
>> bill w
>>
>> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jun 23 09:49:55 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2024 10:49:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Unitree (Chinese) robot dog spectacular
Message-ID: <CAL_armiC3+icEQq+KjkU-Y8esYLJBeTmxyeZBx0CdjoRTk8AtA@mail.gmail.com>

The latest Unitree robot dog short video is impressive. (1 minute)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ClYBtfhkaw>

The whole Unitree channel is worth browsing through.
They also make humanoid robots.

Oh, and by the way, the Chinese military have put a machine gun on
one of these robot dogs.   (45 sec).
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYRtuBPFPDI>

BillK







BillK

From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jun 23 12:50:15 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2024 13:50:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
Message-ID: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>

What If We?re Stuck Down Here?
By Barry Petchesky   June 18, 2024

<https://defector.com/what-if-were-stuck-down-here?>
Quotes:
But what if certain challenges are not hurdles but roadblocks, and not
technological but biological? If the problem is not what we can build,
but what we are?

We've long known of the deleterious effects spaceflight can have on
the human body: bone loss, anemia, weakened immune systems, higher
cancer risks, the list goes on.
Add to those effects a potentially calamitous one.
The study, ominously titled "Cosmic Kidney Disease" and published last
week in Nature Communications, examines the kidney function of 66
astronauts who spent up to 180 days on the International Space
Station, which is relatively safe compared to say, a return mission to
Mars, which would last a couple years and expose astronauts to the
more intense radiation of deep space.
----------------------

The conclusion is that if humans are stuck on Earth, then we had
better make sure we don't ruin it.

BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jun 23 13:28:45 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2024 09:28:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>

"But what if-"

No.

The dangers are known, and addressable on the scale of a full colony in
space; they have not nearly been economical to address on the scale of the
very limited space stations that provide the only data about living in
space so far.  The dangers mainly come from:
1) Living in zero-g for extended periods, which we know how to avoid, but
no actual space station has yet been built for long-term spin gravity,
2) Substantially increased exposure to ionizing radiation, which we know
how to avoid, but no actual space station has yet been built with the
requisite level of radiation protection, and
3) Generally being cut off from supply/society and having to make do only
with the very limited infrastructure on hand, which we know how to avoid,
but no actual space station has yet been built with a hospital (or even a
clinic), a full machine shop, and so on.

On Sun, Jun 23, 2024 at 8:52?AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> What If We?re Stuck Down Here?
> By Barry Petchesky   June 18, 2024
>
> <https://defector.com/what-if-were-stuck-down-here?>
> Quotes:
> But what if certain challenges are not hurdles but roadblocks, and not
> technological but biological? If the problem is not what we can build,
> but what we are?
>
> We've long known of the deleterious effects spaceflight can have on
> the human body: bone loss, anemia, weakened immune systems, higher
> cancer risks, the list goes on.
> Add to those effects a potentially calamitous one.
> The study, ominously titled "Cosmic Kidney Disease" and published last
> week in Nature Communications, examines the kidney function of 66
> astronauts who spent up to 180 days on the International Space
> Station, which is relatively safe compared to say, a return mission to
> Mars, which would last a couple years and expose astronauts to the
> more intense radiation of deep space.
> ----------------------
>
> The conclusion is that if humans are stuck on Earth, then we had
> better make sure we don't ruin it.
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Jun 23 14:42:25 2024
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2024 09:42:25 -0500
Subject: [ExI] ai
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaxCv49K=hbx=V43P5OAcJiyVwEeqzpKfoWJ7wZ3PkRvw@mail.gmail.com>

Really excellent short story Summer FRost on Kindle.  AI developing into an
'evil'? superintelligence.  Free for Kindle Unlimited (really great deal,I
think).  bill w
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From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun 24 09:47:09 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:47:09 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Unitree (Chinese) robot dog spectacular
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiC3+icEQq+KjkU-Y8esYLJBeTmxyeZBx0CdjoRTk8AtA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiC3+icEQq+KjkU-Y8esYLJBeTmxyeZBx0CdjoRTk8AtA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <90c8c717-f46b-4a74-12be-946fce85285a@swisscows.email>



On Sun, 23 Jun 2024, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

> The latest Unitree robot dog short video is impressive. (1 minute)
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ClYBtfhkaw>
>
> The whole Unitree channel is worth browsing through.
> They also make humanoid robots.
>
> Oh, and by the way, the Chinese military have put a machine gun on
> one of these robot dogs.   (45 sec).
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYRtuBPFPDI>

In the US I think they attached a flame thrower?

> BillK
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


From efc at swisscows.email  Mon Jun 24 09:49:47 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:49:47 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>



On Sun, 23 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> "But what if-"
> No.
> 
> The dangers are known,?and addressable on the scale of a full colony in space; they have not nearly been economical to address on the
> scale of the very limited space stations that provide the only data about living in space so far.? The dangers mainly come from:
> 1) Living in zero-g for extended periods, which we know how to avoid, but no actual space station has yet been built for long-term
> spin gravity,
> 2) Substantially increased exposure to ionizing radiation, which we know how to avoid, but no actual space station has yet been built
> with the requisite level of radiation protection, and
> 3) Generally being cut off from supply/society and having to make do only with the very limited infrastructure on hand, which we know
> how to avoid, but no actual space station has yet been built with a hospital (or even a clinic), a full machine shop, and so on.

What are the economics of having a space station with 1, 2, 3 and relying 
on mining ice for oxygen? Flying it in from earth is cheating, so I'd be 
curious if it would be feasible to have something permanent in space 
relying on ice being flown in, or if that is way beyond anything possible 
with today technology.


> On Sun, Jun 23, 2024 at 8:52?AM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       What If We?re Stuck Down Here?
>       By Barry Petchesky? ?June 18, 2024
>
>       <https://defector.com/what-if-were-stuck-down-here?>
>       Quotes:
>       But what if certain challenges are not hurdles but roadblocks, and not
>       technological but biological? If the problem is not what we can build,
>       but what we are?
>
>       We've long known of the deleterious effects spaceflight can have on
>       the human body: bone loss, anemia, weakened immune systems, higher
>       cancer risks, the list goes on.
>       Add to those effects a potentially calamitous one.
>       The study, ominously titled "Cosmic Kidney Disease" and published last
>       week in Nature Communications, examines the kidney function of 66
>       astronauts who spent up to 180 days on the International Space
>       Station, which is relatively safe compared to say, a return mission to
>       Mars, which would last a couple years and expose astronauts to the
>       more intense radiation of deep space.
>       ----------------------
>
>       The conclusion is that if humans are stuck on Earth, then we had
>       better make sure we don't ruin it.
>
>       BillK
>
>       _______________________________________________
>       extropy-chat mailing list
>       extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>       http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> 
> 
>

From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jun 24 10:26:12 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:26:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg8cEoMTFwY7tC7uFRcqM6E3z6d4eUvgwJu5312Ag4Ehg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 24 Jun 2024 at 10:52, efc--- via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> What are the economics of having a space station with 1, 2, 3 and relying
> on mining ice for oxygen? Flying it in from earth is cheating, so I'd be
> curious if it would be feasible to have something permanent in space
> relying on ice being flown in, or if that is way beyond anything possible
> with today technology.
>_______________________________________________


What Adrian is talking about is building in space a self-supporting
equivalent of a large town / small city.
This is far advanced beyond the technology we have at present.
The economics are horrendous. Maybe in 100 years time it might be
possible. A lot of space development and exploration will be required
before then. AI humanoids will be doing that space development and
exploration. They can live and work in space without requiring all the
protection and supplies that humans need.

BillK

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 24 13:50:19 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2024 09:50:19 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNScbZ+Fyyxw+g33=paLeJBHfVmG0R=dTLcMk5zUTgAKFg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 24, 2024, 5:51?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sun, 23 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:
>
> > "But what if-"
> > No.
> >
> > The dangers are known, and addressable on the scale of a full colony in
> space; they have not nearly been economical to address on the
> > scale of the very limited space stations that provide the only data
> about living in space so far.  The dangers mainly come from:
> > 1) Living in zero-g for extended periods, which we know how to avoid,
> but no actual space station has yet been built for long-term
> > spin gravity,
> > 2) Substantially increased exposure to ionizing radiation, which we know
> how to avoid, but no actual space station has yet been built
> > with the requisite level of radiation protection, and
> > 3) Generally being cut off from supply/society and having to make do
> only with the very limited infrastructure on hand, which we know
> > how to avoid, but no actual space station has yet been built with a
> hospital (or even a clinic), a full machine shop, and so on.
>
> What are the economics of having a space station with 1, 2, 3 and relying
> on mining ice for oxygen?


That depends on how the station's owners pay for continued operation.  It
may well be that such a station will not exist, at least not for long,
without some sort of economic engine sustaining it.  "For science", the
primary such engine behind all current and previous space stations, simply
doesn't cut it.  (The first station with these three components likely will
support a lot of science as a byproduct, using that as part but not all of
the funding to keep going.  Even if it could achieve full technological
self sufficiency, there will be a need to pay people to be aboard, so it
doesn't become a ghost town.)  See below idea for a satellite manufacturing
hub.

Flying it in from earth is cheating, so I'd be
> curious if it would be feasible to have something permanent in space
> relying on ice being flown in, or if that is way beyond anything possible
> with today technology.
>

Possible, yes.  Practical (aka economical), not yet, even with "cheating".
The snippet quoted was trying to speculate that it might never be possible
- forget the "with today's technology" qualifier.  While there are
technological improvements that would make it more practical, the
fundamental problem is more economics than technology: how does one make a
buck living in space, and thus afford the cost of living in space?

It may well be that the first demonstration of all 3 will use oxygen
initially sourced from Earth then recycled aboard with little continuing
resupply, much like current space stations do.  Shifting to deriving from
ice would happen if and when economical, not out of any desire to not
"cheat".  This might be lunar ice if the station does much other processing
of materials mined on and shipped from the Moon, for instance manufacturing
satellites for Earth's use (perhaps with large components, particularly
solar panels, manufactured on the Moon but assembled - and smaller
components manufactured - on the station).  This would set up a paid-for
mass flow from the Moon to the station, to which lunar ice could be added.

As I understand it, the ISS today uses little to no ongoing oxygen
resupply.  Rather, it has an oxygen generator that electrolyzes water, then
reacts the hydrogen with CO2 to make more water.  It does, however, need
ongoing nitrogen resupply to keep the air mix okay.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbogen
<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbogen#:~:text=Carbogen%2C%20also%20called%20Meduna's%20Mixture,%25%20to%2050%25%20CO2>
says
that an oxygen/carbon dioxide mix is not immediately fatal, but long term
effects would need more study.  Although, this would replace the nitrogen
resupply problem with a carbon resupply problem.  One might think that this
could be handled with ongoing resupply of food, but if the nitrogen content
of food is low enough that separate nitrogen resupply is warranted, a
carbogen-atmosphere space station might need separate carbon resupply.

Eventually, a full self supporting space station will need to grow its own
food too, but there is little doubt that this is possible.  The ISS grows
stuff on board, though nowhere near on the scale to fully feed its crew.

>
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From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk  Mon Jun 24 14:16:09 2024
From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell)
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2024 14:16:09 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [ExI] protecting children
In-Reply-To: <mailman.107.1719237051.141.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.107.1719237051.141.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <753351118.15533221.1719238569426@mail.yahoo.com>

 

   Bill W wrote:
"I am all for requiring parents to OK downloads and for privacy issues - of
course.

Go back in time 50 years.? Tell a grocer to put a cart at the end of an
aisle, put products into it along with the usual price.? People will think
it's on sale.? Is this ethical?? Can't we use psychology?"


In the UK, we have passed laws against marketing junk food to kids too aggressively, limiting some of the promotions that you can make on food, and instated a "sugar tax" that makes putting too much sugar in your fizzy pop expensive. People have got wise to some of the tricks of the marketers, and the health campaigners want to fight against it and plenty of people want to fight those who would aggressively market to their kids. I think your politicians are merely taking a leaf out of the playbooks being used on the other side of the Atlantic. Being incredibly attractive to adults is one thing, but people get wary when people are profiting from making something extra-attractive to kids.
Tom

  

|  | Virus-free.www.avg.com |

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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Jun 24 15:02:53 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:02:53 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg8cEoMTFwY7tC7uFRcqM6E3z6d4eUvgwJu5312Ag4Ehg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armg8cEoMTFwY7tC7uFRcqM6E3z6d4eUvgwJu5312Ag4Ehg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQDgd-cv9qoN6jCgzHTdXGBRKYdgPJByD47LNdRwSyGsw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jun 24, 2024, 6:28?AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> AI humanoids will be doing that space development and
> exploration. They can live and work in space without requiring all the
> protection and supplies that humans need.
>

Indeed, even when (and if) it becomes practical to live in space, the
question must be addressed: why?  When it is possible for robots - AI or
drones, humanoids or whatever shape - to do all that is of scientific or
economic merit in space, what advantage would be gained by lifting our
duffs off this rock and planting them in some habitat off in space?

"A backup for humanity" and similar reasons do not cut it.  These are
benefits to people still on Earth; what is needed is benefits to the people
living in space.  "The honor of being a backup for humanity" is worth
approximately nothing.  Further, these reasons might get people to fund
startup costs but the importance would soon fade and not justify funding
ongoing operations.

I am aware of two reasons that might work.

1) Local supervision.  AI might do a lot but it is not yet a complete,
perfect replacement for humans.  Light speed lag makes fully autonomous
mining and manufacturing - or even just maneuvering (as seen with the
recent Mars rovers) - slower and less productive than if a human is nearby
to provide oversight.  Maybe in 100 years this will no longer be the case,
whether through improved AI, mind uploading, or some other approach, but I
suspect the first true space habitat will come along before AI makes humans
obsolete for all purposes.  If local supervision merely makes an operation
more financially efficient than any all-limited-AI competitors (potentially
hypothetical ones, if the difference is blatant enough that no one in
practice tries or gets far with pure-AI), that could generate the continued
funding to pay for a sustained human presence in space.

2) Better living conditions.  A space habitat's internal weather is
controlled.  If the station's owners want 70 degrees Farenheit every day,
with rain to wash the air every Sunday night and only Sunday nights, snow
only on preannounced scheduled holidays, and natural disasters such as
earthquakes and floods never, then so mote it be.  The internal layout is a
city planner's dream: initial settlement including the geography built to
specifications, more land literally buildable (extending a habitat or
making more), et cetera.  Invasion is rather more difficult than on Earth -
not impossible, but there would be less worry about defense against those
far outside the station.  Between all these factors and more, life can be
far more comfortable than in most places on Earth, once full life support
(including machine shops, hospitals, et al) is present.  At first there
will be the logistical issues of any population distant from primary cargo
flows, but this is quite surmountable, as witnessed today in Alaska and
Hawaii.  This may be sufficient reason for many to choose to live there.

>
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From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 09:37:33 2024
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 11:37:33 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The Singularity is Nearer
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydojpP094tOUS-PmKhiN2i8VA1BrQzeyzYX4SZrxt7_nQ@mail.gmail.com>

Ray Kurzweil's new book "The Singularity is Nearer" is out! I'll do a
couple of days of almost total immersion in the book.

From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 09:38:45 2024
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 11:38:45 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Greening the universe
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyceCs91ouabv4Gaw_kbYXw58P-x8rjudKCJGtFf1rz8YQ@mail.gmail.com>

Greening the universe. A beautiful vision of space expansion.
https://www.turingchurch.com/p/greening-the-universe

From efc at swisscows.email  Tue Jun 25 10:20:03 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 12:20:03 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNScbZ+Fyyxw+g33=paLeJBHfVmG0R=dTLcMk5zUTgAKFg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNScbZ+Fyyxw+g33=paLeJBHfVmG0R=dTLcMk5zUTgAKFg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <2cd72776-7b40-ab02-0398-601ead5d6eb4@swisscows.email>



On Mon, 24 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> That depends on how the station's owners pay for continued operation.?
> It may well be that such a station will not exist, at least
> not for long, without some sort of economic engine sustaining it.?
> "For science", the primary such engine behind all current and
...
> previous space stations, simply doesn't cut it.? (The first station
> with these three components likely will support a lot of science
> as a byproduct, using that as part but not all of the funding to keep
> going.? Even if it could achieve full technological self

I agree. A business is needed, otherwise it won't work. I can imagine
perhaps manufacturing processes that benefit from being done in a
vacuum? Tax havens? Mining? Tourism? And then of course, some science on
top of that. In short, a mix of many different things would be
necessary.

> sufficiency, there will be a need to pay people to be aboard, so it doesn't become a ghost town.)? See below idea for a satellite
> manufacturing hub.
>
>       Flying it in from earth is cheating, so I'd be
>       curious if it would be feasible to have something permanent in space
>       relying on ice being flown in, or if that is way beyond anything possible
>       with today technology.
> 
> 
> this could be handled with ongoing resupply of food, but if the
> nitrogen content of food is low enough that separate nitrogen

In terms of food, have there been any experiments with insect farming
as a protein source? Plants I imagine should be, as you say, fairly
easy, but would it be possible to farm insects as well?

And last, but not least, has there been any progress when it comes to
muscle atrophy and loss of bone density? I imagine that training is
definitely not going to cut it, but that there would have to be some
kind of drug or additional technology in addition to simply training.

From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 13:40:03 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 14:40:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
Message-ID: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>

He predicts that AI will combine with biotechnology to defeat
degenerative diseases this decade. Then things will get really
interesting.
June 25, 2024

<https://www.freethink.com/robots-ai/ray-kurzweil-ai>
Quotes:
This article is adapted from The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge
With AI by Ray Kurzweil, published by Viking. Copyright ? 2024 by Ray
Kurzweil.

Fortunately, during the 2020s we are entering the second bridge:
combining artificial intelligence and biotechnology to defeat these
degenerative diseases. We have already progressed beyond using
computers just to organize information about interventions and
clinical trials. We are now utilizing AI to find new drugs, and by the
end of this decade, we will be able to start the process of augmenting
and ultimately replacing slow, underpowered human trials with digital
simulations. In effect we are in the process of turning medicine into
an information technology, harnessing the exponential progress that
characterizes these technologies to master the software of biology.
---------------------

AI will give us immortality!  (Fingers crossed).
BillK


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 14:52:38 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 07:52:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7H14mJtqE=xMn=x+sACPBjfJMHGPkbjoLogJxCnUmvGg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 6:42?AM BillK via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

snip

> AI will give us immortality!  (Fingers crossed

You might note that Ray did not give up his cryonics contract.

Keith

> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 15:07:34 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 11:07:34 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>

>
> by the
> end of this decade, we will be able to start the process of augmenting
> and ultimately replacing slow, underpowered human trials with digital
> simulations.
>

The problem of AI hallucinations needs to be fixed before their simulations
can be clinically trusted, which makes this prediction unlikely.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 20:49:26 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 16:49:26 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <2cd72776-7b40-ab02-0398-601ead5d6eb4@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNScbZ+Fyyxw+g33=paLeJBHfVmG0R=dTLcMk5zUTgAKFg@mail.gmail.com>
 <2cd72776-7b40-ab02-0398-601ead5d6eb4@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ08kS-8TCHCTKY+p6Eaf3P7nBZAfuEfBfyUTqGVm+o5w@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 6:21?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I can imagine
> perhaps manufacturing processes that benefit from being done in a
> vacuum? Tax havens? Mining? Tourism? And then of course, some science on
> top of that. In short, a mix of many different things would be
> necessary.
>

Correct.  Whether or not there is a single "killer app" that dominates the
operation, any successful solution will involve a number of applications
contributing.


> In terms of food, have there been any experiments with insect farming
> as a protein source? Plants I imagine should be, as you say, fairly
> easy, but would it be possible to farm insects as well?
>

We are a mite (pun intended) beyond mere experiments in that field.  See
https://www.google.com/search?q=insect+farming .


> And last, but not least, has there been any progress when it comes to
> muscle atrophy and loss of bone density? I imagine that training is
> definitely not going to cut it, but that there would have to be some
> kind of drug or additional technology in addition to simply training.
>

That's why I brought up spin gravity.  So far as is known (longer studies,
such as of small living organisms living in large centrifuges for years in
orbit, are needed to be sure), long term living in 1G spin gravity (at a
sufficiently large radius relative to the organism's height, so there is no
significant gravity gradient inside the body and minimal Coriolis force)
would completely alleviate the problems from lack of "natural" gravity.  In
the one scenario, the body is constantly being accelerated at 1G; in the
other, the body is constantly being accelerated at 1G.

Granted, this does require a much larger space station than has been built
so far.  https://www.artificial-gravity.com/sw/SpinCalc/ gives a good
overview of the variables.  A half-km diameter (250 m radius) spinning
habitat might comfortably provide 1 G to humans.  Even if this was a thin
"crushed soda can", a 250 m radius, 10 m wide cylinder (leaving aside any
questions of structural or gyroscopic stability) would have an internal
volume just under 2,000,000 cubic meters, compared to around 900 cubic
meters for the ISS.  One can tweak the numbers - e.g., 225 m radius (close
to the minimum for 1 G without too much angular velocity, according to
SpinCalc) and 3 m wide (typical minimum bedroom width; the station might
have two concentric rings of rooms with a corridor between the rings: if
it's 1 G at 225 m from the center, 215 m is about 0.96 G) is a bit over
500,000 cubic meters - but you get the idea.
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Jun 25 21:39:43 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2024 14:39:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Julian Assange
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg@mail.gmail.com>

I presume most of you have followed the news on Julian Assange of late.

Julian was a poster on the extropian list in the remote past.  Good
that he is out of jail.

Keith

From giulio at gmail.com  Wed Jun 26 05:27:42 2024
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 07:27:42 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Julian Assange
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydGQTpp-n_d1Susv60p2xHA-LJC2tV4fHfu46k_7hDisQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 11:40?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I presume most of you have followed the news on Julian Assange of late.
>
> Julian was a poster on the extropian list in the remote past.  Good
> that he is out of jail.
>

I was afraid this was a honeypot designed to capture Julian and bring
him to the US, but it seems we have a happy end! Here's to Julian!
G.

> Keith
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "extropolis" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg%40mail.gmail.com.


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Jun 26 16:32:59 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 09:32:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Julian Assange
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJydGQTpp-n_d1Susv60p2xHA-LJC2tV4fHfu46k_7hDisQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydGQTpp-n_d1Susv60p2xHA-LJC2tV4fHfu46k_7hDisQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5GgkZQHdUgkq4bgY8qrDFcPR36QfFcedbYFN2KXh9DrQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 10:27?PM Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 11:40?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > I presume most of you have followed the news on Julian Assange of late.
> >
> > Julian was a poster on the extropian list in the remote past.  Good
> > that he is out of jail.
> >
>
> I was afraid this was a honeypot

As I recall, Julian's presence on the list long predated Wikileaks.

Keith

designed to capture Julian and bring
> him to the US, but it seems we have a happy end! Here's to Julian!
> G.
>
> > Keith
> >
> > --
> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "extropolis" group.
> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com.
> > To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg%40mail.gmail.com.
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "extropolis" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAKTCJydGQTpp-n_d1Susv60p2xHA-LJC2tV4fHfu46k_7hDisQ%40mail.gmail.com.


From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Jun 26 19:49:29 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 20:49:29 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhdHDnC8_qtJtx3Rq8GGgbLporGzF_JvebAFzxBxPHxNw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, 25 Jun 2024 at 16:10, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> by the
>> end of this decade, we will be able to start the process of augmenting
>> and ultimately replacing slow, underpowered human trials with digital
>> simulations.
>
>
> The problem of AI hallucinations needs to be fixed before their simulations can be clinically trusted, which makes this prediction unlikely.
> _______________________________________________


The general view seems to be that there is no instant fix for AI
hallucinations. But every improved version of AI should get better at
avoiding hallucinations.
New versions of AI are now appearing at quite a fast rate.
Some people are predicting better than human intelligence before 2030.
After that happens, predictions like Kurzweil makes become unpredictable.  :)

BillK

From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Jun 26 22:02:26 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 23:02:26 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, 25 Jun 2024 at 16:10, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> by the
>> end of this decade, we will be able to start the process of augmenting
>> and ultimately replacing slow, underpowered human trials with digital
>> simulations.
>
>
> The problem of AI hallucinations needs to be fixed before their simulations can be clinically trusted, which makes this prediction unlikely.
> _______________________________________________


The general view seems to be that there is no instant fix for AI
hallucinations. But every improved version of AI should get better at
avoiding hallucinations.
New versions of AI are now appearing at quite a fast rate.
Some people are predicting better than human intelligence before 2030.
After that happens, predictions like Kurzweil makes become unpredictable.  :)

BillK

From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Jun 26 22:25:46 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 15:25:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Julian Assange
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5GgkZQHdUgkq4bgY8qrDFcPR36QfFcedbYFN2KXh9DrQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydGQTpp-n_d1Susv60p2xHA-LJC2tV4fHfu46k_7hDisQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPiwVB5GgkZQHdUgkq4bgY8qrDFcPR36QfFcedbYFN2KXh9DrQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4aWB1SvKB9fNav9scc+vZyCinNny6BJcxzTnWfoqUBTQ@mail.gmail.com>

ExiMod request I repeat the two postings on Julian Assange because
they made it into the archive, but did not go out.

Keith


On Wed, Jun 26, 2024 at 9:32?AM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 10:27?PM Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 11:40?PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > I presume most of you have followed the news on Julian Assange of late.
> > >
> > > Julian was a poster on the extropian list in the remote past.  Good
> > > that he is out of jail.
> > >
> >
> > I was afraid this was a honeypot
>
> As I recall, Julian's presence on the list long predated Wikileaks.
>
> Keith
>
> designed to capture Julian and bring
> > him to the US, but it seems we have a happy end! Here's to Julian!
> > G.
> >
> > > Keith
> > >
> > > --
> > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "extropolis" group.
> > > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com.
> > > To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAPiwVB591ZDnoBEinhKzKgdqBnbnX5Tj5GR7-6bSnSbEctomxg%40mail.gmail.com.
> >
> > --
> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "extropolis" group.
> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com.
> > To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAKTCJydGQTpp-n_d1Susv60p2xHA-LJC2tV4fHfu46k_7hDisQ%40mail.gmail.com.


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Jun 26 23:44:58 2024
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 16:44:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Dump truck
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6CzpceywH8Q0rPMLMqJOCeoMKXPd1VvypSokcqTo2G1g@mail.gmail.com>

https://x.com/i/status/1805671926041575724

Picked it off twitter.  This is a hoot.

Keith

From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Jun 27 00:14:28 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 20:14:28 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <2cd72776-7b40-ab02-0398-601ead5d6eb4@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNScbZ+Fyyxw+g33=paLeJBHfVmG0R=dTLcMk5zUTgAKFg@mail.gmail.com>
 <2cd72776-7b40-ab02-0398-601ead5d6eb4@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQma5GexF-17vuQA4=sX-TdsN1Sjb0R9U5XOedsC7OyZA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 6:21?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I can imagine
> perhaps manufacturing processes that benefit from being done in a
> vacuum? Tax havens? Mining? Tourism? And then of course, some science on
> top of that. In short, a mix of many different things would be
> necessary.
>

Correct.  Whether or not there is a single "killer app" that dominates the
operation, any successful solution will involve a number of applications
contributing.


> In terms of food, have there been any experiments with insect farming
> as a protein source? Plants I imagine should be, as you say, fairly
> easy, but would it be possible to farm insects as well?
>

We are a mite (pun intended) beyond mere experiments in that field.  See
https://www.google.com/search?q=insect+farming .


> And last, but not least, has there been any progress when it comes to
> muscle atrophy and loss of bone density? I imagine that training is
> definitely not going to cut it, but that there would have to be some
> kind of drug or additional technology in addition to simply training.
>

That's why I brought up spin gravity.  So far as is known (longer studies,
such as of small living organisms living in large centrifuges for years in
orbit, are needed to be sure), long term living in 1G spin gravity (at a
sufficiently large radius relative to the organism's height, so there is no
significant gravity gradient inside the body and minimal Coriolis force)
would completely alleviate the problems from lack of "natural" gravity.  In
the one scenario, the body is constantly being accelerated at 1G; in the
other, the body is constantly being accelerated at 1G.

Granted, this does require a much larger space station than has been built
so far.  https://www.artificial-gravity.com/sw/SpinCalc/ gives a good
overview of the variables.  A half-km diameter (250 m radius) spinning
habitat might comfortably provide 1 G to humans.  Even if this was a thin
"crushed soda can", a 250 m radius, 10 m wide cylinder (leaving aside any
questions of structural or gyroscopic stability) would have an internal
volume just under 2,000,000 cubic meters, compared to around 900 cubic
meters for the ISS.  One can tweak the numbers - e.g., 225 m radius (close
to the minimum for 1 G without too much angular velocity, according to
SpinCalc) and 3 m wide (typical minimum bedroom width; the station might
have two concentric rings of rooms with a corridor between the rings: if
it's 1 G at 225 m from the center, 215 m is about 0.96 G) is a bit over
500,000 cubic meters - but you get the idea.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Jun 27 00:22:13 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 20:22:13 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNS5yaxxGbfda5+UCd=xOvJ8Xaaw4H-FYUEzAfkmEyMBkg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Jun 26, 2024 at 6:04?PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The general view seems to be that there is no instant fix for AI
> hallucinations. But every improved version of AI should get better at
> avoiding hallucinations.
>

The moment you have to use "should" is the moment your prediction becomes a
mere wish.

Are they, or are they not, getting measurably better at this?  The fact
that AI even five years ago did not notably produce hallucinations suggests
this problem has gotten worse, not better, with the current generation of
AI.
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From efc at swisscows.email  Thu Jun 27 07:09:31 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 09:09:31 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQma5GexF-17vuQA4=sX-TdsN1Sjb0R9U5XOedsC7OyZA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ2V088cYtt_JAaHUq2JWJdvnek1njWWmmhwRRu+06m2g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56fbb6ea-6f68-760e-f83e-d50f334059a7@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNScbZ+Fyyxw+g33=paLeJBHfVmG0R=dTLcMk5zUTgAKFg@mail.gmail.com>
 <2cd72776-7b40-ab02-0398-601ead5d6eb4@swisscows.email>
 <CALAdGNQma5GexF-17vuQA4=sX-TdsN1Sjb0R9U5XOedsC7OyZA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <81291456-57fc-df85-480a-e083413dbb89@swisscows.email>



On Wed, 26 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> On Tue, Jun 25, 2024 at 6:21?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       I can imagine
>       perhaps manufacturing processes that benefit from being done in a
>       vacuum? Tax havens? Mining? Tourism? And then of course, some science on
>       top of that. In short, a mix of many different things would be
>       necessary.
> 
> 
> Correct.? Whether or not there is a single "killer app" that dominates the operation, any successful solution will involve a number
> of applications contributing.
> ?
>       In terms of food, have there been any experiments with insect farming
>       as a protein source? Plants I imagine should be, as you say, fairly
>       easy, but would it be possible to farm insects as well?
> 
> 
> We are a mite (pun intended) beyond mere experiments in that field.? See?https://www.google.com/search?q=insect+farming?.
> ?
>       And last, but not least, has there been any progress when it comes to
>       muscle atrophy and loss of bone density? I imagine that training is
>       definitely not going to cut it, but that there would have to be some
>       kind of drug or additional technology in addition to simply training.
> 
> 
> That's why I brought up spin gravity.? So far as is known (longer studies, such as of small living organisms living in large
> centrifuges for years in orbit, are needed to be sure), long term living in 1G spin gravity (at a sufficiently large radius relative
> to the organism's height, so there is no significant gravity gradient inside the body and minimal Coriolis force) would completely
> alleviate the problems from lack of "natural" gravity.? In the one scenario, the body is constantly being accelerated at 1G; in the
> other, the body is constantly being accelerated at 1G.
> 
> Granted, this does require a much larger space station than has been built so
> far.??https://www.artificial-gravity.com/sw/SpinCalc/?gives a good overview of the variables.? A half-km diameter (250 m radius)
> spinning habitat might comfortably provide 1 G to humans.? Even if this was a thin "crushed soda can", a 250 m radius, 10 m wide
> cylinder (leaving aside any questions of structural or gyroscopic stability) would have an internal volume just under 2,000,000 cubic
> meters, compared to around 900 cubic meters for the ISS.? One can tweak the numbers - e.g., 225 m radius (close to the minimum for 1
> G without too much angular velocity, according to SpinCalc) and 3 m wide (typical minimum bedroom width; the station might have two
> concentric rings of rooms with a corridor between the rings: if it's 1 G at 225 m from the center, 215 m is about 0.96 G) is a bit
> over 500,000 cubic meters - but you get the idea.

Very interesting. Thank you Adrian!

Best regards,
Daniel

From efc at swisscows.email  Thu Jun 27 07:11:09 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 09:11:09 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNS5yaxxGbfda5+UCd=xOvJ8Xaaw4H-FYUEzAfkmEyMBkg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNS5yaxxGbfda5+UCd=xOvJ8Xaaw4H-FYUEzAfkmEyMBkg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <13abebe2-c461-e446-8af8-9ce1f57b663d@swisscows.email>



On Wed, 26 Jun 2024, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote:

> On Wed, Jun 26, 2024 at 6:04?PM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>       The general view seems to be that there is no instant fix for AI
>       hallucinations. But every improved version of AI should get better at
>       avoiding hallucinations.
> 
> 
> The moment you have to use "should" is the moment your prediction becomes a mere wish.
> 
> Are they, or are they not, getting measurably better at?this?? The fact that AI even five years ago did not notably produce
> hallucinations?suggests this problem has gotten worse, not better, with the current generation of AI.

But the hallucinations as I understand it, are due to the method used 
(LLM:s). Use a different method, and hallucination might disappear. But as 
long as you use the method where they result spontaneously it does seem a 
bit suboptimal to me to try and "fix" it afterwards.

From avant at sollegro.com  Fri Jun 28 04:16:28 2024
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 21:16:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <16581dcec67002a1195abd101b79d69d@sollegro.com>

On 2024-06-23 05:50, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:
> What If We?re Stuck Down Here?
> By Barry Petchesky   June 18, 2024
> 
> <https://defector.com/what-if-were-stuck-down-here?>
> Quotes:
> But what if certain challenges are not hurdles but roadblocks, and not
> technological but biological? If the problem is not what we can build,
> but what we are?

But what we are can be changed too, in the long term, through selective 
mating/breeding programs in conjunction with germline genetic 
engineering. You could call it an agoragenics program to distinguish it 
from top down approaches like eugenics. It could be as democratic and 
bottom up as a Tinder app that uses biometric and genomic data to match, 
for example, small radiation-resistant people to other small 
radiation-resistant people until you have a new subspecies of human 
perfectly adapted to living in space habitats.

The obstacle with this idea is much more political than technological 
because, for example, we could probably have genetically-engineered mice 
well-adapted to life in space habitats within a few years, if it was a 
scientific priority.

> We've long known of the deleterious effects spaceflight can have on
> the human body: bone loss, anemia, weakened immune systems, higher
> cancer risks, the list goes on.
> Add to those effects a potentially calamitous one.
> The study, ominously titled "Cosmic Kidney Disease" and published last
> week in Nature Communications, examines the kidney function of 66
> astronauts who spent up to 180 days on the International Space
> Station, which is relatively safe compared to say, a return mission to
> Mars, which would last a couple years and expose astronauts to the
> more intense radiation of deep space.
> ----------------------

While I think that machines are certainly better suited to space 
exploration than humans are, space colonization by humans is of 
paramount importance despite all the risk involved, and by definition 
cannot be done (entirely) by machines. Being an astronaut always has 
been and always will be a dangerous profession, and that is why they are 
heroes. Really, the humans that live and work in space will have a host 
of medical issues and a really high mortality rate probably akin to 
Victorian Era coal miners. But the future they build by taking those 
risks to establish colonies out there to function as offsite backups for 
human civilization will be more impactful than the industrial revolution 
enabled by the courage of the  Victorian coal miners.


> The conclusion is that if humans are stuck on Earth, then we had
> better make sure we don't ruin it.

Even in the entirely unlikely scenario where the world pulls together 
into some global brotherhood of sustainability and we all become 
solar-powered vegans who ride our bikes everywhere, recycle everything, 
and live lives of virtuous austerity, it is still almost certain that 
the Yellowstone supervolcano will blow its top sooner or later and send 
most of us to the boneyard. Beyond that we have asteroid impacts, gamma 
ray bursts, coronal mass ejections, plagues and pandemics, and the sun 
swelling into a red giant to worry about. The hard facts of the matter 
are that 99.9% of all species that ever lived have gone extinct and the 
average lifetime of a species in the fossil record is about a million 
years. Furthermore it was like that long before we showed and skewed the 
odds. In any case, if we stay here on Earth, we are guaranteed to go 
extinct. But if we could colonize off world, the we could survive 
indefinitely. Even if a bunch of brave astronauts have to die die young 
to give their children a future.

Stuart LaForge


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Jun 28 09:54:24 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 10:54:24 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <13abebe2-c461-e446-8af8-9ce1f57b663d@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNS5yaxxGbfda5+UCd=xOvJ8Xaaw4H-FYUEzAfkmEyMBkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <13abebe2-c461-e446-8af8-9ce1f57b663d@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiLA26YeTYkU0KZYe5hjhzbbFRR5Zea_rOMdP4-QpUmYQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 27 Jun 2024 at 08:13, efc--- via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> But the hallucinations as I understand it, are due to the method used
> (LLM:s). Use a different method, and hallucination might disappear. But as
> long as you use the method where they result spontaneously it does seem a
> bit suboptimal to me to try and "fix" it afterwards.
>_______________________________________________


Yes. I have been chatting to a couple of AIs about how to solve the
hallucination problem.
>From their replies, I realised that I was really asking them how to
create a better AI.
They were describing AI improvements that would mean creating the next
generation of AIs.
So AI is a work in progress and the next version will be better!  :)

BillK

From efc at swisscows.email  Fri Jun 28 10:38:36 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 12:38:36 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiLA26YeTYkU0KZYe5hjhzbbFRR5Zea_rOMdP4-QpUmYQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNS5yaxxGbfda5+UCd=xOvJ8Xaaw4H-FYUEzAfkmEyMBkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <13abebe2-c461-e446-8af8-9ce1f57b663d@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armiLA26YeTYkU0KZYe5hjhzbbFRR5Zea_rOMdP4-QpUmYQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <b5d518ac-6769-9dba-7a18-d8891fa30b39@swisscows.email>



On Fri, 28 Jun 2024, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

> On Thu, 27 Jun 2024 at 08:13, efc--- via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>> But the hallucinations as I understand it, are due to the method used
>> (LLM:s). Use a different method, and hallucination might disappear. But as
>> long as you use the method where they result spontaneously it does seem a
>> bit suboptimal to me to try and "fix" it afterwards.
>> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Yes. I have been chatting to a couple of AIs about how to solve the
> hallucination problem.
> From their replies, I realised that I was really asking them how to
> create a better AI.
> They were describing AI improvements that would mean creating the next
> generation of AIs.
> So AI is a work in progress and the next version will be better!  :)

Yes, I agree. We might have another AI winter where current progress will 
benefit a few years of quiet research that will yield the next 
breakthrough. It seems as if after every AI winter, we solve more and more 
problems.

Perhaps "the" AI will be a coordinating function that successfully 
integrates several techniques that we already have?

>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Jun 28 11:13:58 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 12:13:58 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ray Kurzweil explains how AI makes radical life extension
 possible
In-Reply-To: <b5d518ac-6769-9dba-7a18-d8891fa30b39@swisscows.email>
References: <CAL_armjrRwYhkEOEayHeZRtR8oD6+q8ZQxXvQ9_bKB=FJSkLrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTMH6+HQuXpjM0Q0uioams4xGZy79xJGs05afbR6yJ7Mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armidxM38KDzofJ7cqb466yBV-w12ZLLGzgC35x_HmycL7w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNS5yaxxGbfda5+UCd=xOvJ8Xaaw4H-FYUEzAfkmEyMBkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <13abebe2-c461-e446-8af8-9ce1f57b663d@swisscows.email>
 <CAL_armiLA26YeTYkU0KZYe5hjhzbbFRR5Zea_rOMdP4-QpUmYQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <b5d518ac-6769-9dba-7a18-d8891fa30b39@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhM01CTQfDftw4vepuFf+xfH0tBETmqCPAFV6oS13rYmQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, 28 Jun 2024 at 11:41, efc--- via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Yes, I agree. We might have another AI winter where current progress will
> benefit a few years of quiet research that will yield the next
> breakthrough. It seems as if after every AI winter, we solve more and more
> problems.
>
> Perhaps "the" AI will be a coordinating function that successfully
> integrates several techniques that we already have?
> _______________________________________________


It won't be a few years research! The development cycle is speeding
up, especially now that we have AI available to help.
AI has told us what we need, now just do it.

See:
<https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/ai-is-better-at-fixing-itself-than-with-human-help-meet-openais-new-bug-hunter>
Quote:
AI is better at fixing itself than with human help ? meet OpenAI's new
bug hunter
By Christoph Schwaiger     published 28 June 2024
It's going to take AI to catch AI bugs
OpenAI has created a new model called CriticGPT that has been designed
to spot errors in programming code produced by GPT-4.
----------------------------

BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Jun 28 12:05:22 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 08:05:22 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <16581dcec67002a1195abd101b79d69d@sollegro.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <16581dcec67002a1195abd101b79d69d@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTyKyvsS78BHpmzDG0JJv9+vaDErh3eP_aMF8jHm+KH8w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Jun 28, 2024 at 12:19?AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The obstacle with this idea is much more political than technological
> because, for example, we could probably have genetically-engineered mice
> well-adapted to life in space habitats within a few years, if it was a
> scientific priority.
>

The "political" issue is that this approach would only benefit entities
that we specifically breed for this venture.

1) Those entities are not us.  We ourselves do not directly benefit.  The
apparent means of making sure we do benefit amount to slavery.

2) Just because they could, would they?  What motivation would these
entities have to go along with the objective they were made for?  "Because
they were made for it" / "because it's their destiny" does not suffice.

Add those two together, and obsess about the technological path to the
exclusion (and it would be an exclusion) of trying to solve those problems,
and it's a foreseeable disaster.  Most likely, the organisms would be
abandoned and die off entirely, with the engineering behind it scrapped,
meaning it wouldn't benefit anyone.

I regard this as more of a planning and logistical issue than a political
one.


> In any case, if we stay here on Earth, we are guaranteed to go
> extinct. But if we could colonize off world, the we could survive
> indefinitely. Even if a bunch of brave astronauts have to die die young
> to give their children a future.
>

If you assume that a bunch of astronauts will die young to achieve this
goal, the result that you will get is a bunch of astronauts dying young,
and not much else.

There are far more likely-to-succeed paths that do not probably involve a
bunch of astronauts dying young.  Forget the disasterbation fantasy - which
misleads you into thinking the main problem is a lack of political will -
and honestly look at what's needed to establish extraterrestrial colonies.

The real problem is far more about getting the effort to pay back those who
are currently alive.  They will not donate for your children's future, but
they can be gotten to invest if they think they will see a positive
financial return on their investment within several years.  There are ways
to make that return happen that fast.
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From mbb386 at main.nc.us  Fri Jun 28 12:09:27 2024
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 08:09:27 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Maybe space exploration will be a task for AI humanoids
In-Reply-To: <16581dcec67002a1195abd101b79d69d@sollegro.com>
References: <CAL_armgFQYwjXjb7+3xt1s+UUrQX6p0Xx78bpQTFapgUyLOMUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <16581dcec67002a1195abd101b79d69d@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <d470c59dc5914bba13e83b3f3b2d879d.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>



On Fri, June 28, 2024 00:16, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote:

> But what we are can be changed too, in the long term, through selective
> mating/breeding programs in conjunction with germline genetic
> engineering. You could call it an agoragenics program to distinguish it
> from top down approaches like eugenics. It could be as democratic and
> bottom up as a Tinder app that uses biometric and genomic data to match,
> for example, small radiation-resistant people to other small
> radiation-resistant people until you have a new subspecies of human
> perfectly adapted to living in space habitats.
>
> The obstacle with this idea is much more political than technological
> because, for example, we could probably have genetically-engineered mice
> well-adapted to life in space habitats within a few years, if it was a
> scientific priority.
>

Indeed so.

"Their creators called them "adapted men".  But the rest of the human race
saw them as monsters and tracked them through space to annihilate them.
Yet the "adapted men" survived and fled to the outmost edges of the galaxy
to fulfill their destiny - to seed the universe with the mutated scions of
Mankind.  Millennia later, it was only fitting that they should return to
a long forgotten plantary system to colonize a hostile world called Earth"

The promotional for "The Seedling Stars" by James Blish - 1957

Sounds like good stuff to me. :)  I really miss the old SF stories.

Regards,
MB

From giulio at gmail.com  Sun Jun 30 09:22:56 2024
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2024 11:22:56 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The Terasem Colloquium will take place in ONE WEEK,
 on Sunday July 7
Message-ID: <CAKTCJye0o-40ORkjyeqbZCRYhoaLKPKZ+m4R8qNjhsZ1Kw9oOg@mail.gmail.com>

The Terasem Colloquium will take place in ONE WEEK, on Sunday July 7
at 10am-1pm ET (7am-10am PT, 4pm-7pm CET) via Zoom. We will explore
old and new radically optimistic futurisms including Italian futurism,
Russian and modern cosmism, extropy, and e/acc. YOU ARE INVITED!
https://www.turingchurch.com/p/terasem-colloquium-july-7-2024

From efc at swisscows.email  Sun Jun 30 15:56:50 2024
From: efc at swisscows.email (efc at swisscows.email)
Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2024 17:56:50 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Interesting take on AI.
Message-ID: <db975fe9-a2d7-3986-4cc9-8f7264132582@swisscows.email>

Hello everyone,

Thought you might enjoy this take on AI:

https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/29/mit-robotics-pioneer-rodney-brooks-thinks-people-are-vastly-overestimating-generative-ai/

"Brooks adds that there?s this mistaken belief, mostly thanks to Moore?s 
law, that there will always be exponential growth when it comes to 
technology ? the idea that if ChatGPT 4 is this good, imagine what ChatGPT 
5, 6 and 7 will be like. He sees this flaw in that logic, that tech 
doesn?t always grow exponentially, in spite of Moore?s law".

More in the article above.

Best regards,
Daniel


From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jun 30 17:01:45 2024
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2024 13:01:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Interesting take on AI.
In-Reply-To: <db975fe9-a2d7-3986-4cc9-8f7264132582@swisscows.email>
References: <db975fe9-a2d7-3986-4cc9-8f7264132582@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTZzLDz5av532ZPBhnKJPRcqGZ=YrC+NsE6yKrumqrsEg@mail.gmail.com>

Setting aside whether Moore's Law will continue, exponential growth in
hardware does not necessarily mean exponential growth in software.  ChatGPT
running twice as fast or having twice as much memory does not make it twice
as good by itself, using the functionality measure of "good" that most of
the public is using for AI.

On Sun, Jun 30, 2024, 11:58?AM efc--- via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Hello everyone,
>
> Thought you might enjoy this take on AI:
>
>
> https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/29/mit-robotics-pioneer-rodney-brooks-thinks-people-are-vastly-overestimating-generative-ai/
>
> "Brooks adds that there?s this mistaken belief, mostly thanks to Moore?s
> law, that there will always be exponential growth when it comes to
> technology ? the idea that if ChatGPT 4 is this good, imagine what ChatGPT
> 5, 6 and 7 will be like. He sees this flaw in that logic, that tech
> doesn?t always grow exponentially, in spite of Moore?s law".
>
> More in the article above.
>
> Best regards,
> Daniel
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jun 30 18:14:37 2024
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2024 19:14:37 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Interesting take on AI.
In-Reply-To: <db975fe9-a2d7-3986-4cc9-8f7264132582@swisscows.email>
References: <db975fe9-a2d7-3986-4cc9-8f7264132582@swisscows.email>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgcHCmAUwSBr+jBYYBRSUO-eUMzZRUaUsyQNrLXN-uRXg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, 30 Jun 2024 at 16:59, efc--- via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Hello everyone,
> Thought you might enjoy this take on AI:
>
> https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/29/mit-robotics-pioneer-rodney-brooks-thinks-people-are-vastly-overestimating-generative-ai/
>
> "Brooks adds that there?s this mistaken belief, mostly thanks to Moore?s
> law, that there will always be exponential growth when it comes to
> technology ? the idea that if ChatGPT 4 is this good, imagine what ChatGPT
> 5, 6 and 7 will be like. He sees this flaw in that logic, that tech
> doesn?t always grow exponentially, in spite of Moore?s law".
>
> More in the article above.
>
> Best regards, Daniel
> _______________________________________________


As Brooks is criticising AI, it only seems fair to give one of the
latest AIs the right of reply.  :)
BillK

Here is the response from Google's Gemma 2 AI -

This TechCrunch article reporting on Rodney Brooks' comments about
Generative AI presents a compelling but ultimately incomplete picture.
While it effectively highlights Brooks' skepticism, it lacks the depth
and nuance needed for a truly insightful analysis.

Strengths:

Attention-grabbing Headline: The title immediately captures attention
and sets the stage for a potentially controversial discussion.

Credibility: Leveraging Brooks' reputation as a leading robotics
expert lends weight to his criticisms and makes the article more
compelling.

Clear and Concise: The writing is straightforward and easy to
understand, making the topic accessible to a wider audience.

Weaknesses:

Oversimplification: The article tends to oversimplify Brooks'
argument, portraying him as simply dismissing Generative AI. While he
expresses skepticism, his critique is more nuanced, focusing on the
limitations of current AI and the dangers of overhyping its
capabilities.

Lack of Context: The article fails to adequately contextualize Brooks'
comments. Knowing the setting (a tech conference) and the intended
audience is crucial for understanding the tone and potential biases of
his remarks.

Limited Engagement with Brooks' Reasoning: The article touches upon
Brooks' concerns about the lack of true understanding and common sense
in current AI, but it doesn't delve deeply into the technical reasons
behind these limitations.

One-Sided Perspective: The article primarily focuses on Brooks'
criticisms without presenting counterarguments or perspectives from AI
researchers who might disagree with him. This lack of balance weakens
the article's analytical value.

Absence of Future Outlook: The article concludes without exploring
potential future developments in Generative AI. Does Brooks see any
paths for overcoming its current limitations? What advancements would
be needed?

Suggestions for Improvement:

Provide More Context: Explain the setting and audience of Brooks'
comments to help readers understand the context of his remarks.

Elaborate on Brooks' Reasoning: Dive deeper into the specific
technical challenges and limitations he sees in Generative AI.

Include Counterarguments: Present perspectives from AI researchers who
might disagree with Brooks, creating a more balanced and nuanced
discussion.

Explore Future Possibilities: Discuss potential paths for Generative
AI to overcome its limitations and what advancements might be needed.

Avoid Sensationalism: While the headline is attention-grabbing, the
article should avoid sensationalizing Brooks' views and instead strive
for a more objective and informative tone.

Overall:

The article serves as a good starting point for a conversation about
the limitations of Generative AI, but it needs further development to
provide a truly insightful and balanced analysis. By addressing its
weaknesses and incorporating the suggested improvements, the article
could become a more valuable contribution to the ongoing dialogue
surrounding AI's capabilities and potential.

----------------------------------