[ExI] Predictions for the next ten years

[BillK]

Logan Kilpatrick (who recently left OpenAI) has made six predictions for
the next ten years.
I asked Claude to discuss these predictions. His opinion sounds reasonable
to me.
BillK

Claude -
Here are my thoughts on these predictions for the next 10 years (2024-2034):

Create AGI (Artificial General Intelligence):
This is perhaps the most ambitious and uncertain prediction on the list.
While AI has made tremendous strides recently, most experts believe we are
still quite far from achieving human-level general intelligence that can
flexibly handle any cognitive task like the human brain can. Narrow AI will
likely continue to get more powerful, but a full-fledged AGI by 2034 seems
unlikely based on the current state of the technology and research. That
said, breakthroughs can happen faster than expected.

Full self-driving cars:
This seems like a realistic possibility in the 10 year timeframe. Companies
like Tesla, Waymo and others have made a lot of progress on autonomous
driving. Many experts predict we'll have Level 4 autonomy (fully
self-driving in most situations) widely available by the early 2030s. Key
challenges remain around handling edge cases, inclement weather,
unpredictable human drivers, and gaining regulatory approval. But overall,
the building blocks are in place and it's plausible this could be realized
by 2034.

Humans on Mars:
NASA and SpaceX are working towards crewed missions to Mars, with NASA
targeting the 2030s and Elon Musk even more ambitiously aiming for SpaceX
flights in the mid to late 2020s. But there are immense technical, safety,
and funding challenges to overcome. Barring an incredible acceleration and
massive investment, a crewed Mars landing might be a stretch for the
10-year horizon, but serious progress towards that goal seems likely, such
as a human return to the Moon as a stepping stone.

Internet everywhere on Earth:
We'll almost certainly see a dramatic expansion of global internet
connectivity by 2034. Between the proliferation of low-cost smartphones,
expansion of cellular and Wi-Fi networks, new satellite internet
constellations like Starlink and others, and technologies like 5G, it's
quite conceivable that nearly every human on Earth could have some form of
internet access 10 years from now, though speeds and costs may still vary
considerably.

Supersonic commercial jet travel:
This seems entirely plausible by 2034. Companies like Boom Supersonic are
already flight testing prototype supersonic airliners, aiming to carry
passengers by the end of the decade. With lighter materials, more efficient
engines, better aerodynamics, and quieter sonic booms, a new generation of
economically viable and environmentally tolerable supersonic passenger jets
could be flying in 10 years if development programs currently underway
succeed.

Many major diseases cured:
This is a complex issue and "cured" is a high bar, but we're likely to see
transformative breakthroughs in treating many diseases over the next 10
years. mRNA vaccines, gene therapies, immunotherapies, stem cells, CRISPR
gene editing, and other technologies are ushering in a new era of medicine.
We'll likely see major progress against cancer, genetic disorders,
infectious diseases, Alzheimer's, and more, with some conditions
effectively cured or prevented. But realistically, we'll still be far from
curing all major diseases by 2034.

In summary, I believe some of these predictions like global internet
connectivity and supersonic flight are quite achievable in a 10-year
timeframe, others like full self-driving are challenging but possible, and
the most ambitious like AGI and a Mars landing are less likely by 2034 but
we should see substantial progress. It will be an eventful decade of
technological change.
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