[ExI] questions

[BillK]

On Wed, 16 Apr 2025 at 20:32, Darin Sunley via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> At this point, anyone with any stake in US politics who doesn't have 600
> deep-reasoning chatgpt instances running, one for each congressmen,
> senator, senior elected official and cabinet member of the us government,
> with a context window stuffed with every public utterance and obtainable
> private communication, running a simulacrum of the the entire US
> government, just isn't playing the game seriously.
>
> "They're dinosaurs. And they're going to be sitting on their asses on the
> couches in October, watching the Boston Red Sox win the World Series." -
> Moneyball
>
> ----------------------------------------



I asked Gemini Pro 2.5 Deep Research about this possibility.
Not feasible at present was the conclusion. Human behavior too
unpredictable.
It produced a long report, detailing all the problems.
Here is the Conclusions paragraph.
BillK

In conclusion, while the concept of using 600 Deep Reasoning AIs to emulate
and predict the behavior of the US government is theoretically captivating,
it faces substantial hurdles with current and near-future technology. The
inherent limitations of AI in understanding human-like reasoning, the
unpredictability of human behavior in political contexts, the immense data
and computational power requirements, and the significant ethical and
societal implications all present formidable challenges. While AI can
undoubtedly contribute to political analysis in more focused and specific
applications, such as analyzing large datasets and identifying trends, the
comprehensive emulation of a system as complex and human-driven as the US
government remains a distant prospect. The continued importance of human
expertise, critical thinking, and a deep understanding of political science
principles will remain paramount in analyzing and interpreting governmental
behavior. Future advancements in AI might make more sophisticated modeling
feasible, but this will necessitate careful consideration of the ethical
and societal consequences to ensure the responsible and beneficial
application of such powerful technologies.

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