[ExI] There's already a vaccine for heart disease!

[John Clark]

On Mon, Dec 22, 2025 at 10:07 AM Jason Resch via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

*> We know that last year's flu vaccine had negative efficacy (those who
> received it were more 26.9% likely to get the flu*


*But d**o we know that?! I had the following conversation with Gemini AI:*

*ME:   Somebody told me that " last year's flu vaccine had negative
efficacy (those who received it were more 26.9% likely to get the flu", is
that true!?*

Gemini: That claim refers to a specific, controversial *preprint study* *(not
yet peer-reviewed)* from the Cleveland Clinic that was released in April
2025.

While the "26.9%" number (often rounded to 27%) does appear in that
specific paper, the interpretation that the vaccine is "dangerous" or
"causes the flu" is considered a significant misreading of the data by the
medical community.
1. The Study in Question

The study analyzed over 50,000 employees at the Cleveland Clinic during the
2024–2025 flu season. It found that vaccinated employees had a *27% higher
risk of testing positive* for the flu compared to unvaccinated employees. This
resulted in a calculated "negative effectiveness" of  *-26.9%*

2. Why the Result is Controversial

Independent experts and the study authors themselves have pointed out
several reasons why this number doesn't mean the vaccine makes you sick:

   -

   *Testing Bias:* One major factor is that vaccinated healthcare workers
   are often more "health-conscious" and significantly more likely to get
   tested if they feel a slight sniffle. If the vaccinated group tests more
   often, they will naturally record more "positive" results than an
   unvaccinated person who just stays home and rests without a test.

   -

   *Workplace Policies:* Unvaccinated employees often face stricter masking
   or social distancing requirements in hospital settings. This means the
   unvaccinated group may have been better protected by physical barriers
   (masks), making the vaccine's effect look worse by comparison.
   -

   *Infection vs. Severity:* The study only looked at whether people tested
   positive. It did *not* measure how many people ended up in the
hospital.* Historically,
   even when a flu vaccine is a "poor match" for preventing infection, it
   remains highly effective at preventing death and severe lung complications.*


3. The National Data (CDC)

The broader data from the CDC for the same season (2024–2025) told a very
different story. Their multi-state networks estimated the vaccine was
actually *36% to 54% effective* at preventing outpatient flu visits and
roughly *41% to 55% effective* at preventing hospitalizations.


------------------------------
Summary Table
*Feature* *Cleveland Clinic Preprint* *CDC National Estimates*
*Conclusion* Negative Efficacy (-26.9%) Positive Efficacy (+36% to +54%)
*Population* Healthy healthcare workers in Ohio General public (all
ages/locations)
*Status* Preprint (Not peer-reviewed) Official Surveillance Data
*Interpretation* Likely skewed by testing behavior Standard measure of
public health impact

*The Bottom Line:* The "negative efficacy" was a finding in one specific
group of hospital workers, likely due to how often they were tested or
masked. It does not reflect the overall performance of the vaccine for the
general public.


*John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>*
7dd






>
>
> On Mon, Dec 22, 2025 at 7:08 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> *The following is from the December 17, 2025 issue of the journal
>> Nature: *
>>
>> *"A study of 9,000 adults found that those who received the flu shot were
>> 34% less likely to experience serious cardiovascular events in the next
>> year than were those who did not receive the vaccine.  For people with
>> recent cardiac issues, the benefits were even more pronounced, with a 45%
>> lower risk of a serious event.[...] Clinicians should make it clear that
>> for individuals who are at elevated risk of cardiovascular disease, the flu
>> vaccine isn’t just a ‘nice to have’ — it’s a clinical necessity."*
>>
>> *There's already a vaccine for heart disease*
>> <https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03598-0?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=82ce72787e-nature-briefing-daily-20251218&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-33f35e09ea-50169436>
>>
>>
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