[ExI] stargate

[BillK]

On Wed, 29 Jan 2025 at 12:18, Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I really don't believe there will be another AI winter. The stuff we
> have today is already terribly useful, and becoming more so all the
> time. I can't imagine running my business without it to be honest. I
> use it to delve into government bureaucracies and the labyrinth of
> rules that they impose on us small business owners at least a few
> times a week. The best materials development, protein folding,
> materials science, math, computer programming, accounting, law advice,
> art, videos, fake voices, self driving cars, perhaps soon useful
> robots you don't have to be a genius to work. This seems like more
> than enough to push things forward. Now, will there be a bubble?
> That's a different question. Remember the 2000 Internet Bubble? Didn't
> really kill the Internet now did it? Just put a few overly exuberant
> investors back in their playpens for a minute.
>
> The reason for the previous AI winters is that they didn't really
> accomplish anything of much value. Great chess programs didn't change
> the economy.
>
> -Kelly
> _______________________________________________
>




Just ask an AI.  :)    The AIs all agree that a future AI winter is
unlikely at present.
The risks lie outside the AI environment, mainly in the economy and public
opinion.
See below.
BillK

According to Ask AI & Question AI www.iAsk.ai <https://iask.ai/>:

*Signs of a Potential AI Winter Amidst Advancements*

The term “AI winter” refers to periods in the history of artificial
intelligence research when progress slows significantly, funding decreases,
and interest wanes. To assess whether current developments in AI, such as
those involving DeepSeek and other advanced AIs, might lead to a new AI
winter, we must consider several factors.

*1. Current State of AI Development*

As of January 2025, the field of artificial intelligence is experiencing
rapid advancements. Technologies such as deep learning, natural language
processing (NLP), and reinforcement learning have seen significant
improvements. Companies are investing heavily in AI research and
applications across various sectors including healthcare, finance, and
autonomous systems. The release of sophisticated models like DeepSeek
indicates that there is still robust momentum in the field.

*2. Economic Factors Influencing AI Investment*

Investment trends play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of AI
development. Currently, venture capital funding for AI startups remains
strong, with billions being allocated annually. However, economic downturns
or shifts in investor sentiment could lead to reduced funding for less
promising projects or startups that do not deliver immediate returns on
investment. If a significant economic recession were to occur, it could
trigger an AI winter by causing investors to pull back from funding
speculative technologies.

*3. Technical Challenges and Limitations*

Despite the advancements made in AI technologies, there are still
substantial technical challenges that researchers face. Issues such as data
privacy concerns, ethical considerations regarding bias in algorithms, and
the need for explainability can hinder widespread adoption. If these
challenges remain unresolved or if they lead to significant public backlash
against AI technologies, it could dampen enthusiasm and investment in
further development.

*4. Public Perception and Regulatory Environment*

Public perception plays a critical role in the advancement of technology.
As awareness grows about potential risks associated with AI—such as job
displacement or misuse—there may be calls for stricter regulations
governing its use. An overly restrictive regulatory environment could
stifle innovation and slow down progress within the industry.

*5. Historical Context of AI Winters*

Historically, previous AI winters were often precipitated by unmet
expectations following periods of hype around new technologies that failed
to deliver practical results within anticipated timelines. If current AIs
like DeepSeek do not meet user expectations or fail to solve real-world
problems effectively over time, this could lead to disillusionment among
stakeholders.

*Conclusion: Assessing the Risk of an AI Winter*

While there are signs indicating potential risks that could lead to an AI
winter—such as economic fluctuations, technical limitations, public
perception issues, and historical precedents—the current landscape shows
strong investment and ongoing advancements in technology that suggest
resilience against such a downturn at this moment. Therefore:

*The probability of a new AI winter slowing developments is moderate but
contingent on external economic factors and societal responses to emerging
challenges within the field of artificial intelligence.*
------------------------------
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20250129/8b7bb7fa/attachment.htm>