[ExI] Please explain

[Darin Sunley]

It is very difficult, for historical reasons, for most Americans to model
Trump as anything more sophisticated than a random-policy generator tuned
towards elemental evil, and they tend to get angry when you try, but here's
my best attempt to steelman the current admin's foreign policy.

The US is in big trouble. Seriously big trouble. We've put ourselves in a
position of being a worldwide security guarantor, and we have run our
economy into the ground doing so. 40 trillion dollars of debt on a  7
trillion dollar budget that we overrun by 2 trillion or more on a typical
year. We can't afford our empire. We really can't afford much of anything.
Domestically, what we are seeing is the beginning of austerity measures
like what Greece went through a few years back, only probably moreso. A
balanced budget, at this point, is the US's only hope.

On the foreign front, US hegemony is in its last few years. One of two
things will happen - it can be wound down, in a controlled manner,
resulting in the US having reasonably stable control over a regional sphere
of influence that includes Canada, Mexico, and probably Central America
down to Panama, but definitely not Western Europe or the Far East. Or we
can keep on going until the dollar hyperinflates and collapses, taking the
federal government with it, leaving a massive chaotic ugly void. The Trump
administration is trying to transition from the US-centric post WWII order
to the latter. This involves getting out of any and all foreign wars
including Ukraine, and pivoting from support to neutrality in Ukraine,
which certainly feels like surrender to anyone heavily invested.At the very
least this involves handing the whole situation over to NATO, or rather
what's left of NATO after we withdraw from it, because we can't afford that
either. In a world based on spheres of influence, Ukraine is Europe's and
Russia's problem, not ours.

The end goal is a world where the US, Russia, and China own their
respective backyards, and stay out of everyone else's. Basically politics
as normal for the thousand years ending in the mid 1800s. Europe cann have
precisely as much independence from Russia as they can afford, but the US
is effectively withdrawing from that fight. If it feels like 80+ years of
American interventionism and world hegemony is crashing to a halt, it's
because it is. The administration is taking advantage of Trump's
historically unusual ability to not worry about reelection to bite a lot of
bullets to try to build a sustainable international order that doesn't
depend on the US bankrupting itself to maintain, which isn't going to work
for anyone. It's a huge project, and it may not work - there's obviously
going to be massive and apparently hysterical pushback from anyone
currently profiting off the current model, which is basically everyone in
Washington DC and the defense industry. They may not be able to pull it off
- it may be impossible for anyoen to accomplish, especially in onyl one
presidential term, but you can't say they aren't ambitious.

The tariff kerfuffle with Canada is an interesting case. Canada has spent
the last year positioning itself as almost a Chinese client state. The
Chinese government actually operates police stations in British Columbia
and Toronto specifically for the purpose of retaining jurisdiction of
Chinese nationals living and working in Canada. The excuse of fentanyl is
just that - an excuse. Washington is trying to secure North America as a
secure sphere of influence for the US, and China has a very prominent
official and unofficial presence and influence in Canada that is
unacceptable under this vision. The tariffs are a warning about what Canada
continuing to position itself as a Chinese client state looks like. due to
legal reasons, the executive branch has more freedom of action to set
tariffs if the stated reason related to the drug war than if it relates to
geopolitical maneuvering, but the trade disputes and the responses on both
sides are irrationally overheated for trade and border security conflicts,
but make perfect sense when evaluated as China setting up camp in the main
courtyard of what is supposed to be Fortress America for the next 50 years.
Frankly, I'd fully expect CIA involvement in Canada's next election.

On Wed, Mar 5, 2025 at 2:11 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Wed, Mar 5, 2025 at 8:37 AM Henrik Ohrstrom via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Hi all, this is the highest concentration of members of the USA that I
> have contact with.
> > Your esteemed leader are doing strange stuff.
> > Can you please explain what's up
>
> Not in detail, but try here
> https://arelzedblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/01/berserk/
>
> People who think they are facing bleak times react in ways that (in
> the Stone Age) led up to war because genes survived in larger numbers
> in wars than they did in starvation.
>
> Support for the current US leader is irrational, that's just what happens.
>
> For what it is worth, although it may cause a lot of harm, it may not
> make much difference in the long run.  I think AI development is more
> important.
>
> I could say lots more, but my experience with a cult makes me
> reluctant to speak out.
>
> Keith
>
>  with this sudden support of the former soviets?
> > Considering Spikes suspicious attitude towards the baltic states just
> due to the unfortunate fact that they where occupied by the Moscow state
> during the cold war, how come that the republican party now are happy to
> support that same socialist state?
> >
> > Also all this talk about invading countries that have been actively
> supporting the USA is, strange.
> > Why is that something you seem to support?
> >
> > And last but not least, if trump et al are busy abolishing the first
> amendment,  what is stopping them from doing the same with your beloved
> second?
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
> _______________________________________________
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>
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