[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

[Keith Henson]

Spike, you make a bunch of statements on this thread, some of which,
like the military having a big REE stockpile, seem unlikely to me.
How would they know which ones to stockpile for equipment not yet
developed,?  Ten years from now there may be different requirements.,
Others, like cheap labor, I know are not true.  China has a
significant multiple of robots over what the US has.  Cheap labor was
true 10-15 years ago, but not now.  Current annual labor cost in China
is listed as $14,800.

Most of the cost of REE is in sorting them out.  If they could be used
without sorting them, I think I would know about it.

Likewise, if Mo were to substitute, I think that would be well known.
I have a friend who has an alloy named after him.  I will bcc this
thread to him and see if he will respond.

I did find one article mentioning Mo, but it is a minor addition to an
alloy that contains Cs.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966979521003411

Keith

On Sun, Nov 2, 2025 at 12:50 PM spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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> From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
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> > On the contrary John.  The same properties that make those elements so difficult to separate makes them mostly interchangeable for magnetic purposes.
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> >…Spike, that is simply untrue. The magnetic (and the optical) properties of rare earth elements are unrelated to their chemical properties….
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> Agreed.  None of those elements’ magnetic properties are significant enough to matter.  It’s the iron which does the magnetic magic.  The trace of heavies are just there to control the crystal growth in the iron.  They are catalysts.  They really are mostly interchangeable.  We can make good magnets without the rare earths.
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> >…(because you have been around chemistry your adult life but never heard of this one (because it isn’t used for anything)))
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> ?????
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> Dubnium?  Who ordered THAT?  Berkelium?  I wonder where that was synthesized?  How about lutetium?  That one isn’t even radioactive, but if you saw the chemical symbol Lu, you would guess someone is putting you on.  But there it is, right there between ytterbium and Hafnium.  Chemistry hipsters, how many of you have ever worked with lutetium?  Neither have I.
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> > There are magnets that use substitute materials for what any rare earth does.
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> >…Yes there are substitutes, if you don't mind that the substitute magnet produces a far weaker magnetic field…
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> It doesn’t.  That’s the point.  Maybe very slightly weaker or very slightly greater hysteresis.  But the comparison one often sees is a rare earth magnet vs an iron magnet, which is misleading.
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> >…and is far heavier…
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> It doesn’t differ much in density if one uses a different catalyst material.
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> But for the application where a lot of the material is used (generators and turbines) the density doesn’t matter anyway.
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> >… and thus makes a far crappier electric motor than the ones China makes by the millions…..
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> China’s motors are not better enough to cover the cost of shipping them here.
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> > But for Tesla it wouldn’t matter anyway, since EVs don’t use very much of it anyway.  They can get all that they need.
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> >…No they cannot….
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> They really can John.  China doesn’t make better EVs.  They will tell you theirs are better however.  I am not buying it.  I see a few Chinese EVs whirring around here, but I am not impressed with them.
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> >…If Tesla started making millions of cars that contain no rare earth elements EVERYBODY would know. You think something like that could be kept secret?
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> The factory is right up the street.  Production doesn’t seem to be impacted by lack of materials from China.  Do you have indications to the contrary?
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>  >  The military has all the REEs they need. They have enough of it to supply their own needs indefinitely.
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> >…No they have not.
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> John you seem to be claiming knowledge of what the US military has.  Do you have this knowledge?  Or are you guessing?
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> Imagine you are a general with a budget, arbitrarily large indefinite secure storage space, and your job is to anticipate your needs in case international trade is interrupted by war.  You must have everything you need in case war breaks out.  Imagine you need about a ton of lutetium a decade.  You have some budget which you must spend, or risk having your budget reduced for next eyar.  What might you buy?  How about 20 tons of lutetium?  Nah.  Fifty tons.
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> Don’t worry, the military has plenty of everything squirreled away here and there.  Telsa has enough material and enough engineering talent to design around anything they can’t get.  Businesses do that kind of thing.  The electronics industry doesn’t use much and the material cost compared to the product is negligible.  The wind turbine industry, well I can’t really say there.  They need a lot, but we don’t really need wind turbines.  So they will need to work that out.  I don’t see it as a real problem.
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> > Of course they thought of that: they aren’t going to depend for materials on the country we might be at war with soon.
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> >…Yes they have…
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> Again, your confidence appears to be unjustifiable arrogance.  The military isn’t going to tell you what they have, but you can be sure they won’t be caught short of anything.  Their job is to anticipate needs under a variety of scenarios, and they are extremely good at what they do.
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>  > John are you seeing a pattern here?
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> >…No spike I am NOT. I can honestly say I don't know what you're talking about.
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> John K Clark
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> What I am talking about: the Chinese monopoly on rare earth elements has been grossly exaggerated.  The only industry I can see which is seriously impacted is one we don’t really need: wind turbine manufacturers.  Everyone else will be OK without Chinese material imports.
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> I don’t see huge potential growth in wind power, since the best sites are already built out (Tehachapi Pass, Altamont Pass, Columbia Gorge and a few others.)  There is increasing pushback by the environmentalists who are known to resort to vandalism.  Not all environmentalists, but the bird people hate those turbines.  Sooner or later, some bird lover is going to get a small plane, fly up over a wind farm with a thirty aught six, punch holes in those turbines so that the oil leaks out on a windy night, wrecks a bunch of them before anyone knows there is a problem.  Wind farms are too vulnerable to that kind of attack.
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> I can see additional growth in solar power however, for it is more predictable.
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> Conclusion: the notion that China has a critical monopoly on any material is exaggerated.
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> spike
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