[ExI] day 6

[Keith Henson]

On Sat, Nov 15, 2025 at 2:10 PM spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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> From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
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> >…Update for day 6: I have been by there twice today, zero customers.  I have an idear however, which I shall share a little later today.  Idears are better than ideas, for reasons I shall likewise explain later, but now I gotta scoot forthwith…. spike
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> Good chance everyone here will agree that the Singularity will eventually happen.  We may disagree to some extent on when.  We should have investment strategies consistent with our own predictions of course.

I think it is possible that investment will go out of style.  The need
for investment is based on scarcity.  Post-singularity may be based on
abundance

>  We likely also agree that the singularity and AI in general will be power hungry, and that it is quite likely that more generation capacity is needed, which will drive up the cost of power, and will provide marvelous investment opportunities with enormous profit potential.
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Perhaps.  It is also possible that solar power plants may grow like kudzu.

> The S-alphas need something that can be scaled up quickly.  The power sources currently scalable quickly are oil-based.  Reasoning: locomotives can be purchased and used for generating power, for they are already built and capable of running at equilibrium for extended periods.  The power would be used for AI rather than pulling train cars.

I really doubt that.  Combined cycle turbines are close to twice as
efficient as diesel locomotive engines.  (I worked for a while in a
locomotive factory.)

> That would require more oil production, but it isn’t just drill baby drill.  That is a slightly longer term solution, but there are existing oil wells mostly idle for lack of demand, and existing refinery capacity idle for lack of demand.

Do you have a pointer to these "facts"?

> The S-alpha would look to those facilities.
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> The S-beta thinker would look perhaps toward coal and natural gas generators, which can also be scaled up quickly, for many of these already exist but are idle.  The kinds of considerations about being forbidden by the state of California from connecting to the grid has a work-around: it wouldn’t need to connect to the grid at all.  A coal-fired plant aboard a ship could supply power to a data center aboard the ship.  No connection to the internet would be necessary.  A retired military ship or cargo vessel would suffice.
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> The longer term opiners (S gammas, deltas and epsions) might favor solar, wind, or even nuclear (those take a long time just to get a permit, in addition to the time it takes to build them.)
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> In the meantime, the self-driving cars may be a better investment opportunity, for it is easy enough to see they have somehow managed the liability challenge.  I don’t know how they did it, but Waymo is operational.  It has shown practicality.  Waymo hasn’t killed anyone.  The Elaine Herzberg fatality was an Uber in self-driving mode, which is the fault of the human driver, legally.  There have been plenty of accidents, but no fatalities.  My best guess on why would suggest the Waymo car never panics and is still trying to stop right up until collision, making the accidents less fatal.
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> If market penetration gets sufficient, a jury might be less likely to award 100 billion dollars to a victim, putting the company out of business (and losing one’s investment.)  So… my notion now is that investment in Waymo (or any viable competitor to Waymo) is a better investment than power generation.
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> Mike, John or anyone else interested in this topic, do offer your views please.
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> spike
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