[ExI] Free Trade

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat
Sent: Tuesday, 7 October, 2025 3:29 AM
To: ExI Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
Subject: [ExI] Free Trade

 

>…How do people around here feel about free trade? When I first joined this list in 1993 nearly every member was a passionate advocate of free trade including me, but I get the impression that is no longer the case; certainly He Who Must Not Be Named is about as far from being a free trade advocate as it's possible to be. Even the AI revolution hasn't caused me to change my opinion about free trade but Universal Basic Income is a different matter; back then I would've argued that the idea was completely impractical and I would have been correct, but even then I knew that eventually something like it would have to be implemented, however I figured it was so far in the future I didn't need to think very deeply about it. But the time has come. 

 

>..Have the amazing developments in AI during the last five years caused anybody else to change any of their economic opinions?  John K Clark

 

 

 

 

I changed on that to some extent.  I have always been a free-trade advocate and I am still.  But I changed in the way I see tariffs today is a reminder of the universality of Laffer theory.  

 

When the tariff notion came back (I thought it was extinct after the 1980s tariffs on Japanese motorcycles) we studied Laffer’s notions again and recognized that it doesn’t matter how the federal government gets its cut, it only matters how much it takes out of an economy.  It maximizes somewhere around 20% total GDP.  If a federal government takes more that that percent, the GDP shrinks and the government’s revenue shrinks.  It gets a bigger slice of a smaller pie.  The US experimentation with tariffs will remind us that Laffer theory applies regardless of what form is the taxation.

 

Regarding UBI, it is clear to me that such a notion is practical but only at state, local and city levels.  We think of it as a federal government thing, but fail to recognize the truth: the US federal government is busted and has been for a long time.  It has checks left.  For now.  But we can see, and we can hear.  It is busted.  That printing press Jared Bernstein referred to does not print wealth.  It only prints currency.  Big difference.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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