[ExI] Gilded Rage: Elon Musk and the Radicalization of Silicon Valley

[Keith Henson]

On Fri, Oct 24, 2025 at 3:15 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
> ...
> >...We deny China AI chips, and are surprised when they shut off rare
> earth elements.
>
> Keith
>
> Ja that one I kinda get.  Everyone can see we are preparing for a war with China.  They have been making aggressive moves toward Taiwan.  Sooner or later they are going to take it.

It is not that clear.  There is no question that, at a vast cost,
China could take Taiwan.  But it is not clear whether China would gain
enough to make it worthwhile.  The semiconductor factories would be
destroyed, and more importantly, the workers would decamp to the US.

> At that time, the USA and the rest of the world must be prepared to do without that country as a trading partner.
>
> I have another take on it however.  We have long grown accustomed to the advantages of super huge production runs for any manufactured item.  But over time, manufacturing becomes more automated.  This means the advantages of mass production runs are decreased relative to smaller production runs.

With nanotech you should be able to build anything one-off.

> At some point, there is insufficient advantage to shipping designs and materials to China, having them build it and ship it back.  Energy and time is saved by having the factory here, and in each country of origin.

China does not import a lot of raw materials.  They used to import a
lot of designs, but not so much now.  My guess is that nanotech
fabricators will be developed in China.
>
> The trade wars are pressuring the USA and other nations to have their own production capability and resource refinement capacity.  Some consumer items go up in price, but we get stability and security in return.  So in that sense, trade wars can be a good thing.

I doubt it.  Opening a new RE mine is a 5-10 year project and as far
as I know, nobody is working on it.  Can't blame them, there is a
copper mine in AZ that has been held up fo 20 years   A few months
from now I expect defense projects like the F35 to shut down for lack
of parts that contain rare earth elements.

> spike
>
>
>