[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Wednesday, 29 October, 2025 5:28 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

On Tue, 28 Oct 2025 at 18:27, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >…A few days ago, I speculated that the invisible hand of capitalism would find alternative sources for rare earth elements.  Well the invisible hand did so.  ... > spike
> _______________________________________________


<https://www.businessinsider.com/china-rare-earth-monopoly-west-supply-chain-goldman-sachs-2025-10>
Quotes:
Breaking China's rare earth dominance could take a decade, Goldman Sachs says
By Huileng Tan   Oct 29, 2025
...
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>...Some people might think that your suggestion of "Oh, well, we'll just make do without these rare earths" would have occurred to the smartest financiers in the West. Perhaps "make do" just isn't good enough when facing opposition countries that have access to the best.
BillK

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BillK, the market has already found end runs around the biggest roadblocks.  There are other countries which refine earth elements.  The spot price on the most critical ones went up enough to make it profitable to refine them.  Neodymium was up enough to make it a race: the first guy to get a meaningful refinery going will make a fortune.  With that much profit potential, any concern about pollution goes out the window, for investors supply the money to pay off the requisite politicians if necessary.

Notice we don't see any chip manufacturer shutting down because it cannot get sufficient supplies of these Chinese-dominated materials, nor do we hear of wind farms or electric car companies shutting down for that reason.  The EV manufacturers are slowing production because of lower demand for the product than anticipated, but that's different.

BillK, do store this note where you can find it again in the future.  I do flatly insist that China will not be able to hold its monopoly on any critical element.  If the market demands a way, the invisible hand of capitalism will find a way. 

spike