[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

[Keith Henson]

On Wed, Oct 29, 2025 at 1:47 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
>
> >>..."We can do it now.  But there are alternative sources for the materials as well: Japan, Malasia, Cambodia etc."
>
> >...Wikipedia doesn't list any of these places as mining REE.  You are right, of course. We can design around using REE.  But the consequences are that such products are no longer competitive.
>
> Keith
>
> Keith, I cannot imagine it would take years to figure out how to refine an element out of ore, given modern chemistry technology.

We know how.  There was a mine that sorted the REE out in the US.  One
of the problems is the long lead time on industrial machines.  For a
while, I installed electronic equipment in a copper mill.  They had 30
ball mills that made fine beach sand out of 3/4 inch crushed rock at
100 tons per hour per ball mill.  Each one was driven by a 1200 hp
motor.

If you have any doubts about how long such equipment takes to be
delivered and installed, talk to one of the companies that makes them.

Keith

PS, if you get a chance, get a tour of a large industrial plant.  A
few years ago I went through a mini mill steel plant in
Seattle.  There is a cement plant on the other side of the bay from you

That didn't sound a bit right the first time I heard it.  If it is
expensive and dirty, OK we get that.  Speculators will come.  We
already have processes like that: we set up a factory and build the
dirty stuff in Mexico.  The Mexicans will cheerfully make any dirty
product the market demands, in exchange for American money.
>
> I can assure you, the world will not allow China to hold any material hostage.  China is likely going to war soon, or it might.  The world has been divesting from China for years, anticipating the risk of their invasion of Taiwan.  Somebody somewhere has already thought of how to mine and refine the earth elements, anticipating the increased value of the stuff.  Its value is going up.
>
> Here's how we can know: show me any product which cannot be made because of unavailability of earth elements.  It doesn't count if it is an EV, for they would just raise the price to cover the increased spot price of the metal.  Every element on the periodic chart has a spot price.  Some of them went up, but all are available, if one will pay for it.  Note there is falling demand for some products such as wind turbines and electric cars, we get that, and we know why: most electric grids have all the intermittent power they can use already, such as the one you and I are on, Pacific Gas and Electric.
>
> We understand why the market for the EV is swooning: California stopped offering tax incentives, and plenty of people don't really like their EVs.  Evidence: consignment lots have plenty of them at good prices.  New car sales are showing plenty of demand for gasoline cars, particularly high-end gasoline cars.
>
> But the principle holds fast: the invisible hand will find a way, always.
>
> spike
>