[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

 

On Tue, Oct 28, 2025 at 4:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 

>>… these efficiency specifications are not strictly necessary,

 

>…Without rare earth metals wind power would not be economically viable… And all this was true before China put a stranglehold on rare earth elements. …John K Clark

 

 

I see contradictory reports on this.  I don’t see sufficient evidence that China really has any stranglehold on rare earth elements.  The USA produced those before they became a big deal.

 

What we are all missing is a specific list of elements used in wind turbines along with how much of each is needed, a specific list of elements needed for an EV, list for a microprocessor.  Then we look at the spot price history for each of those elements and figure out how much the price of the product has increased as a result of China’s aggressive actions toward Taiwan.  With that information we can also estimate how much the price of these products will go down once the existing earth element mines and refineries which were once active are brought back online, or the existing ones step up production.

 

The Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine about a km west of Wheaton Springs California is active now.  I can see there is a refinery there.  The stock price for Mountain Pass REM is at 62, up from 20 bucks in May.  Those who were holding Mountain Pass stock tripled their money already.  There is pleeeenty of venture capital eager to jump on stuff like this, now that the EPA is on a temporary vacation and may never come back online.  Even if refining earth elements is dirty, look at the location of Mountain Pass.  Would anyone care?  

 

Until we have a specific list of these elements along with how much goes into each product, all we are doing is tossing around adjectives, which do not lend themselves to equations.  We need numbers.  Otherwise we can assume all this is as it appears: an exaggerated crisis.  Granted it is a crisis which should not go waste.  But until we have numbers, we don’t really know.  Anyone have numbers?

 

I found a Reuters article from 2023 which announced that Tesla had transitioned to a rare-earth-free design for its future cars because of price volatility in the REEs since at least 2022:

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tesla-hits-brakes-rare-earths-juggernaut-rolls-2023-03-08/

 

If Musk can do it, why can’t the others?  Do we really need rare earth elements to get that extra few percent efficiency in permanent magnets?  Or can some other materials be substituted?  Anyone have numbers for us?

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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