[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

[John Clark]

On Fri, Oct 31, 2025 at 10:43 AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:



> *>…Without rare earth metals wind power would not be economically viable…
>> And all this was true before China put a stranglehold on rare earth
>> elements. …**John K Clark*
>
>
>
> *> I see contradictory reports on this. *
>

*I don't.  *


> * > I don’t see sufficient evidence that China really has any stranglehold
> on rare earth elements. *
>

*69% of rare earth mining comes from China, and more importantly 92% of
rare earth refining occurs in China. It took China many years to reach that
level of production, and the same will be true for the US.  *


> *> we look at the spot price history for each of those elements and figure
> out how much the price of the product has increased as a result of China’s
> aggressive actions toward Taiwan. *
>

*China **has behaved aggressively towards Taiwan but that's not what caused
China to shut off exports of rare earth elements to the USA, it was because
of He Who Must Not Be Named idiotic tariffs. *

*> The Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine about a km west of Wheaton Springs
> California is active now. **I can see there is a refinery there.*
>

*That's nice and I'm glad their stock price is up but it will be years,
probably a full decade, before they are able to mine AND REFINE more than
trivial amounts of rare earth metals, and by then the AI race between China
and the US will already have a winner. *

*> I found a Reuters article from 2023 which announced that Tesla had
> transitioned to a rare-earth-free design for its future cars because of
> price volatility in the REEs since at least 2022:*
>

*And that is one reason why China's BYD, not Elon Musk's Tesla, now makes
the world's most technologically sophisticated electric vehicles. *

*> Do we really need rare earth elements to get that extra few percent
> efficiency in permanent magnets? *


*Yes. Not only are rare earth motors more efficient at converting
electricity to kinetic energy, they are also smaller and much less massive
while being just as powerful, and mass is an important consideration if you
want a car that can accelerate quickly and has a long range. *

*John K Clark*
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