[ExI] Discussion of whether the Fermi Paradox is a fallacy

[Jason Resch]

I can summarize the issue as follows:

*Either* *(A)* We are alone (there are no other intelligent civilizations),
*or* *(B)* We are not alone (there are other intelligent civilizations).

John reasons: *if* *(B)* *and* *(C)* intelligent life would spread rapidly
across the cosmos *and* *(D)* it would be obvious to us if intelligent life
spread as their megastructures would be clearly visible to us *then* we can
conclude *not (B)* since we do not see obvious megastructures everywhere,
thus *(A).*

The reasoning is sound, but John treats *(C)* and *(D)* are necessarily
true, rather than assumptions that need to be justified.

For what it's worth, I think *(C)* is likely true (but not necessarily
true, e.g. see trancension hypothesis
<https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html>), but I
have significant doubt about whether *(D)* is true.

As I see it, option *(D)* is like opting to burn whale oil that harms life,
when more productive and less ecologically disastrous energy sources exist.
Consider: nuclear fusion liberates only 0.7% of the energy contained in a
star's mass, and it necessitates operating at high temperatures where
computation is inefficient. So if optimizing the total number of
computations to be performed before the end of the universe is the goal,
then I doubt Dyson swarms will be high on any intelligent civilization's
list. Maximizing useful computations is the ultimate instrumental goal
because it is the source of the only thing with intrinsic value: states of
consciousness. And it doesn't matter if it takes hundreds of trillions of
years to do it. 99.3% of energy will be trapped in stellar remnants for
conversion via black hole engines to drive the hole computers, at times
when the universe is much colder, and there is no danger of dooming other
life to selfishly snipe that 0.7% for yourself at a time when it's so
critical to self-originating life.

Until John can justify *(C)* and *(D)* his conclusion of *(A)* is premature.

Jason
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