[ExI] Discussion of whether the Fermi Paradox is a fallacy

[Keith Henson]

On Tue, Apr 7, 2026 at 5:07 AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
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> On Mon, Apr 6, 2026 at 4:54 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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>> > To the extent we can say anything about aliens, the most likely thing
>> is John's case, we are the first in our light cone.
>> But I don't say this with much conviction.  It is a big and strange
>> universe, and there may be a filter that wipes out all tech-capable
>> races and that's the reason we don't see them.
>
> But it doesn't matter if a civilization goes extinct after it has made a Von Neumann Probe, and we are less than a decade away from being able to make one ourselves.

There might be something fundamentally wrong with von Neumann Probes.
If they are sentient (and I don't see them being otherwise), they
could, on a common logic basis, every one of them, decide that the
time between stars is too long to be out of communication.

I consider this unlikely but possible.

> So I don't see how to reconcile that fact with intelligent life being common in the observable universe.

You are most likely right that we are the first.  But if you are not,
there is some kind of wall we don't know about yet that universally
keeps life from spreading out.  For example, if intelligent life
universally takes the speed-up route, the stars recede subjectively to
millions of years.

Keith

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> John K Clark
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