[ExI] Reality is a Communist Plot

[Gregory Jones]

Allergic reactions that screwed up people are undercounted because the
correlation cannot be proven.  We cannot prove the vaccine caused the harm
any more than we can prove smoking caused a particular patient's lung
cancer.  The vaccine didn't work John.  It apparently caused harm in some,
might have helped some.  We still don't know if it was net positive.  We
may never know.  But we know people lost jobs for refusing to take an
unproven injection.  That is harm.  spike

On Sat, Aug 1, 2026, 12:40 PM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sat, Aug 1, 2026 at 2:55 PM Gregory Jones <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>
> *"I know personally at least four people who were harmed by the vaccine
>> (two fatalities)*
>
>
> *I asked Claude (set to Extra) the following question:*
>
> *Me: In discussing Covid somebody said to me "I know personally at least
> four people who were harmed by the vaccine (two fatalities)". While not
> mathematically impossible I think that is pretty unlikely. Am I right?*
>
> *And this was Claude's answer: *
>
> *Claude*: "Quantified statistical improbability through rigorous Fermi
> estimation
>
> *Your intuition is right*, and the numbers back it up pretty strongly.
> Let's actually run it.
>
> *The base rates.* From CDC/VAERS and academic surveillance data (Vaccine
> Safety Datalink, not just raw unverified reports):
>
>    - Myocarditis/pericarditis: roughly 6–40 per million doses depending
>    on age/sex/dose number, and *it's almost never fatal — no deaths from
>    vaccine-associated myocarditis were confirmed in the US* as of early
>    2022, and a French cohort of over 4,600 post-vaccine myocarditis cases had
>    zero in-hospital deaths and an 18-month mortality of just 0.2%
>    - TTS (blood clots, J&J only): about 4 cases per million doses, with 9
>    deaths among 60 confirmed cases out of 18.6 million J&J doses — but J&J was
>    a small slice of total US doses.
>    - Anaphylaxis: about 5 cases per million doses, rarely fatal with
>    treatment.
>    - Raw VAERS death reports (unverified, just temporally associated, not
>    causally confirmed): 19,476 reports across 672 million doses, or 0.0029% —
>    CDC is explicit that a report doesn't mean the vaccine caused it.
>
> So even taking the most generous possible reading — treating every single
> unverified VAERS death report as if it were confirmed caused by the vaccine
> (which is not what CDC or epidemiologists believe) — you get roughly 1
> confirmed-or-alleged death per ~13,000–35,000 vaccinated people. The actual
> causally-confirmed rate is almost certainly much lower than that.
>
> *The network math.* A generous personal network — everyone you've
> meaningfully known across your whole life, not just close friends — is
> maybe 500–1,500 people. At ~80% vaccination uptake, that's 400–1,200
> vaccinated contacts.
>
> Plugging in even the most charitable-to-the-claim numbers above (large
> network, raw uncritical VAERS rate as the death rate), the expected number
> of vaccine-caused deaths in one person's personal circle comes out to
> roughly 0.02–0.09. Poisson probability of seeing 2 or more against that
> expectation lands somewhere around *1-in-300 to 1-in-6,000. Using the
> more defensible causally-confirmed rates instead, it drops to somewhere
> around 1-in-100,000 or rarer. And that's before even accounting for the "4
> harmed" part, which pushes the joint probability down further* still.
>
> *One more tell:* in the actual data, fatality among confirmed vaccine
> adverse events is low — near 0% for myocarditis, ~15% for TTS, low for
> anaphylaxis. A claim of 2 deaths out of 4 total "harmed" (50%
> case-fatality) *doesn't match that profile at all*. That's a separate red
> flag beyond the raw base-rate math.
>
> None of this means real vaccine injury doesn't happen — it does, in the
> rare categories above. But the specific claim of personally knowing 4
> harmed with 2 deaths is the kind of thing that, if we take "harmed by the
> vaccine" to mean actually caused by it, *would be a wild statistical
> outlier* — one you'd expect to see maybe once in many thousands of
> similarly-sized personal networks, not something an ordinary person should
> expect to stumble into.
>
> The much more common explanations for anecdotes like this: post hoc
> misattribution (someone who died or got sick shortly after vaccination, in
> a population where the elderly and immunocompromised were vaccinated first
> and have high baseline mortality/morbidity anyway), a loose definition of
> "harmed" that includes common expected side effects rather than the rare
> serious ones, or motivated recall within a social circle already primed to
> attribute health events to the vaccine. Doesn't mean the person is lying —
> just that "I know someone who..." is a notoriously unreliable way to
> estimate a population-level rate, precisely because of how salient and
> memorable these stories become once you're looking for them."
>
> *John K Clark*
> psr
>
>
>
>
>
>
> n Sat, Aug 1, 2026 at 4:01 AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, Jul 31, 2026 at 10:03 PM Gregory Jones <spike at rainier66.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> *> If Krugman forgot to add to his list of conspiracy theories one still
>>> gaining popularity: that Covid was not a lab leak.  That one is still
>>> making the rounds.  spike*
>>>
>>
>> *I asked Claude (set to Extra) the following question "Was the cause of
>> Covid a lab leak?" and this was his answer:*
>> *==*
>> *Claude:* "There's no scientific or intelligence consensus — the
>> question remains genuinely unresolved and contested.
>>
>> *On the intelligence side:* U.S. agencies are split. The FBI assesses a
>> lab-related origin as most likely with *moderate confidence*, and the
>> Department of Energy reached a similar conclusion with l*ow confidence*.
>> The CIA shifted in January 2025 to say a research-related origin is "more
>> likely" than natural transmission, though only with l*ow confidence*,
>> and it explicitly stated that b*oth research-related and natural origin
>> scenarios remain plausible*. Other intelligence agencies continue to
>> assess natural spillover as more likely, or say there's insufficient
>> evidence to conclude either way.
>>
>> *On the scientific side:* A 2025 WHO report found the pandemic's origins
>> still uncertain, noting much of the information needed to evaluate the
>> lab-leak theory was never made available to investigators. While a zoonotic
>> (animal-to-human) origin is currently considered the best-supported
>> hypothesis by available scientific data, the WHO says the question will
>> remain inconclusive until more data or information is shared. Scientists
>> remain divided as well.
>>
>> *The core arguments on each side:*
>>
>>    - *Zoonotic spillover*: Early cases clustered around the Huanan wet
>>    market in Wuhan, which sold live wild animals; this mirrors past
>>    coronavirus outbreaks (SARS, MERS) that jumped from animals to humans.
>>    - *Lab leak*: Wuhan hosts a major virology institute with a history
>>    of coronavirus research; some proponents argue certain genetic features of
>>    the virus, or the fact that all known cases trace to a single introduction
>>    event, are more consistent with an engineered or lab-adjacent origin than a
>>    natural spillover.
>>
>> Notably, some of this back-and-forth is politically charged — the current
>> White House has published material asserting lab leak as the "true origin,"
>> while under the prior administration the *CIA had stayed agnostic for
>> years before its 2025 shift, which by its own account was a
>> reinterpretation of existing intelligence rather than new evidence*.
>>
>> Bottom line: this is an active, unsettled dispute rather than a case with
>> a definitive answer — treat any confident claim in either direction with
>> some skepticism unless it's backed by specific new evidence."
>>
>> *John K Clark*
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 12:32 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Nobel prize winning economist *Paul Krugman* had something interesting
>>>> to say a few days ago:
>>>> ===
>>>>
>>>> *             Reality is a Communist Plot*
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *                                                    by Paul Krugman*
>>>>
>>>> *The Covid vaccine didn’t work, and vaccines cause autism
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/a49c1fa7-0056-4810-8036-dfa7a6f60aea?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>.
>>>> But hydroxychloroquine
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/da5a2025-ec96-4773-a734-a0f1be26cb4c?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> worked,
>>>> and so did ivermectin. Anthony Fauci killed millions of people
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/abcbf591-99ca-4400-8842-fa3dfc792cb1?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>.*
>>>>
>>>> *Climate change is a hoax. Wind power caused a massive TV blackout
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/c6b894f5-a94a-4880-a265-e80bbe76f163?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> during
>>>> the Trump-Biden debate. Solar power is useless because the sun doesn’t
>>>> shine at night, and batteries don’t exist. Smoke blanketed North America,
>>>> not because of climate change, but because Canada didn’t rake
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/3fe8b8c6-18e0-4500-ab3c-750b8fd86d2f?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> its
>>>> 2 million square miles of boreal forest.*
>>>>
>>>> *We’ve destroyed Iran’s military, and the Iranian regime is begging for
>>>> a deal. Also, the U.S. isn’t running out of precision weapons as a result
>>>> of the Iran war, and furthermore the shortage is Joe Biden’s fault.*
>>>>
>>>> *The economy is in a “golden age.” Prices are down. And Trump has a 59
>>>> percent approval rating
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/f477f9fb-f775-4864-a952-28d2fd71d2f5?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>.*
>>>>
>>>> *Trump won the 2020 election.*
>>>>
>>>> *Communism is the greatest threat facing America.*
>>>>
>>>> *The modern American right is very good at hating. MAGA hates
>>>> immigrants (unless they’re white South Africans); it hates liberals; it
>>>> hates scientists.*
>>>>
>>>> *What the ongoing show trial of Fauci
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/5381f7e7-a885-47be-8dfe-1fe50c569363?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> —
>>>> which motivated this post — has really driven home, however, is that what
>>>> Trump and his supporters hate most of all is reality. They know what they
>>>> want to believe. They fly into paroxysms of rage whenever someone points
>>>> out that the world isn’t what they want it to be. And they always want to
>>>> shoot the messenger.*
>>>>
>>>> *Of course, motivated reasoning isn’t confined to the right. Some
>>>> people on the left insist that zoning restrictions have no role in causing
>>>> high housing prices, that it’s all about Wall Street greed. Many centrists
>>>> insist that being in the middle on a left-right scale — which isn’t even
>>>> how most voters think about politics
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/d4a07203-f369-4717-9c8b-c6093004660f?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> —
>>>> is the secret to electoral victory. And so on.*
>>>>
>>>> *I’m not immune to the temptation to believe what I want to be true. I
>>>> try to fight it, but don’t always succeed. Still, I try to acknowledge and
>>>> admit it when I have let wishful thinking warp my judgement.*
>>>>
>>>> *But what we’re seeing now isn’t run-of-the-mill motivated reasoning.
>>>> It’s something far more extreme.*
>>>>
>>>> *If believing something suits MAGA’s prejudices and interests, they
>>>> don’t hesitate: they simply insist that it’s true. They routinely dismiss
>>>> scientific and statistical evidence, but they don’t stop there. They’re
>>>> perfectly willing to deny reality even if the truth is staring them in the
>>>> face.*
>>>>
>>>> *Thus, Trump urged Americans to remember that 2024 TV blackout, which
>>>> nobody remembers because it didn’t happen. He insists that California has
>>>> “blackouts and brownouts every weekend
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/b51cede3-a3b6-4f53-a618-0d553187cbe0?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>,”
>>>> when the state’s 39 million residents can tell you it doesn’t. He says that
>>>> you must show ID to buy groceries
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/a886c68e-c550-4a12-9b0b-db828fbfbe8c?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>,
>>>> which everyone who buys their own food knows isn’t so.*
>>>>
>>>> *Do Trump and his followers actually believe these things? As I see it,
>>>> that’s a category error, starting from the presumption that they even
>>>> accept that objective facts exist. All the evidence (Hah! “Evidence!”) says
>>>> that they don’t.*
>>>>
>>>> *George Orwell, whose work seems more relevant by the day, knew all
>>>> about this mindset. In his essay “Looking back on the Spanish war
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/4e798ccd-8d7e-49a0-8d16-ae546e2baf0b?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>”
>>>> he wrote about how the rise of totalitarianism had changed the rules:*
>>>>
>>>> *In the past people deliberately lied, or they unconsciously coloured
>>>> what they wrote, or they struggled after the truth, well knowing that they
>>>> must make many mistakes; but in each case they believed that ‘the facts’
>>>> existed and were more or less discoverable. And in practice there was
>>>> always a considerable body of fact which would have been agreed to by
>>>> almost everyone.*
>>>>
>>>> *Totalitarians, however, denied that objective facts existed.
>>>> Furthermore, reality is mutable, changing with the leader’s whims:*
>>>>
>>>> *If the Leader says of such and such an event, ‘It never happened’ –
>>>> well, it never happened. If he says that two and two are five – well, two
>>>> and two are five.*
>>>>
>>>> *If you find the assertion that MAGA has a totalitarian mindset over
>>>> the top, all I can ask is, have you been following the news?*
>>>>
>>>> *What’s remarkable is the extent to which Republican politicians act as
>>>> if they are living in a totalitarian state, when they aren’t — not yet,
>>>> anyway. ICE would clearly like to be an American Stasi, policing any
>>>> deviation from the party line, but it’s not able, so far, to arrest members
>>>> of Congress who express skepticism about the president’s claims. And many
>>>> Republican politicians still, I believe, know the difference between
>>>> fantasy and reality.*
>>>>
>>>> *But they behave as if they were courtiers to Kim Jong Un. Trump
>>>> speeches are sometimes followed by “endless applause moments
>>>> <https://substack.com/redirect/249c4a19-6eff-4e54-bbd2-b3c11ac10ede?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>,”
>>>> because none of Trump’s loyalists wants to be seen as the first person to
>>>> stop clapping.*
>>>>
>>>> *The susceptibility of the GOP to this totalitarian mindset has come as
>>>> a surprise even to cynics. I have some idea of how this happened: It
>>>> involves a confluence of big-money corruption, crony capitalism, religious
>>>> fanaticism, and the ever-present forces of racism and sexism. But that’s a
>>>> subject to be delved into another day.*
>>>>
>>>> *What’s clear is that the war on reality is exacting a high price on
>>>> America as a whole.*
>>>>
>>>> *Remember, 1.2 million Americans died from Covid — a number that would
>>>> have been much lower if MAGA misinformation hadn’t caused so many people to
>>>> refuse vaccination. Now we’re seeing a frightening rise in measles and
>>>> other infectious diseases, and God help us if another pandemic strikes with
>>>> Trump or his successor still in charge.*
>>>>
>>>> *Climate denial and hostility to renewable energy will mean more
>>>> pollution even as it consigns the U.S. to energy and economic backwardness.*
>>>>
>>>> *And the Iran war — which Trump started and now refuses to end because
>>>> he won’t accept reality — has destroyed America’s credibility and depleted
>>>> our weapon stocks with stunning speed.*
>>>>
>>>> *But anyone pointing out the obvious is, of course, a Communist.*
>>>>
>>>
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