[ExI] Economics during the run up to the Singularity

[Adrian Tymes]

On Mon, Feb 2, 2026 at 7:33 AM John Clark via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> But we're not seeing that because the market has not yet factored in the Singularity, most people, even many professional economists, probably wouldn't even know what the word is referring to, but because of the Moltbook developments I don't think it will be long before they do.

Near-term testable prediction:
* See how many people, today, know about the term "Technological
Singularity", or "Singularity" outside of a purely mathematical or
physics context.  Also see how many take the concept seriously.  (If
the data is available, measure this as of a few months ago, before
Moltbook.)
* Define "a few months".  3 months?  6?  Define it now so there's no
goalpost-moving later on.  If you do not do this, a few months pass,
and there's no significant public reaction, you know you'll simply say
it's "in a few months" from then...and again when another few months
pass with no significant public reaction.
* Once whatever amount of time that is has passed, repeat the measurement.

This might not predict the Singularity itself, but it does measure
public awareness of the concept.  You could simply claim the public is
damned fools for dismissing it when Moltbook is right there - but if
they do dismiss it, then any Singularity-response scenarios that rely
on mass public participation would seem to be right out.  The world
markets will not act with what you believe to be rational
foreknowledge that the Singularity is coming - which means you can
react to their lack of reaction, whether or not they are correct to
dismiss the chances of a near-term Singularity.