[ExI] My prediction

[Adrian Tymes]

On Sat, Jan 3, 2026 at 8:19 AM John Clark via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> On Sat, Jan 3, 2026 at 7:38 AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>> > you could reword your bets to something like this: Congress will pass a bill providing UBI to all US citizens but POTUS will veto it in 2026
>
> That won't work. Congress will never pass such a bill if POTUS doesn't want them to because these days the legislative branch is just a wholey owned subsidiarie of the executive branch.  As He Who Must Not Be Named popularity decreases you might think his power over Republican legislators would also decrease, but they've been politically castrated for so long I think they've forgotten what it feels like to have balls.

Given the GOP these days, I doubt they'd pass a UBI bill even if Trump
was no longer in office.  So you'd need the Democrats to be in control
of both sides of Congress - which might happen after the midterms, but
Senate control flipping is unlikely (even barring martial law
postponing or preventing certain elections, or other such election
interference from the federal government).