[ExI] My prediction

[Adrian Tymes]

On Fri, Jan 16, 2026 at 9:03 AM John Clark via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> On Thu, Jan 15, 2026 at 6:00 PM Darin Sunley <dsunley at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > I invite you to substantiate your oist interesting point: that a pivot to a spheres-of-influence international order is "stupid and crazy".Failure to fully engage on this point will be taken as concession that you are a mouthpiece for your favorite cable news network,
>
> Holy cow! Do I really need to hold you by the hand so you can understand why  going to war with a peaceful NATO ally like Denmark is not a particularly good idea?!

I get the impression that the prospect of war doesn't enter into the
conscious consideration of "pivot to a spheres-of-influence
international order".  That phrasing suggests an assumption that
anyone who does not lead one of the proposed spheres:
a) doesn't matter,
b) has no military of consequence, and
c) will roll over and do whatever the relevant sphere leader says -
the only exception being if some other sphere leader lays claim to
their part of the world, at which point they'll stand back and let the
sphere leaders duke it out.

That this is not how the world works today, nor how it has ever truly
worked, is a concept they have trouble comprehending.  They truly
believe that rule by force is the only sustainable model, facts be
damned and peasants (which they assume they would never be) even more
damned.

So, yes, you do have to point out that this would involve an actual
war, not just a rolling over of the locals.  See for instance Russia's
assumption about Ukraine when it began invading Ukraine a few years
ago, and the disastrous consequences for Russia of that assumption.

That said, it would probably be more effective to point out that
ordering such an invasion would probably not actually result in an
invasion, but - since this would be violations of treaties that have
the force of law in the US - constitute classical "illegal orders"
that the US military has long drilled into them not to follow,
resulting in slow-walking, resignations, arrest of Hegseth for issuing
the orders (and possibly other administration officials if they
persist in trying to fulfill them), refusal from essential
non-government parties that Trump can not simply order (many military
contractors, such as transport operators, are free to simply refuse
service if they think that following orders is likely to get them
arrested and heavily fined), et cetera until either Congress faces
overwhelming pressure to impeach or be recalled/not reelected or Vance
and the (remaining) Cabinet invoke the 25th on the grounds that
Trump's administration is crumbling to the point that he literally
can't govern.

It's a long chain, but "if Trump orders this, here's how that forces
him out of office prematurely" can get around their cognitive
dissonance.