[ExI] Trump Is Obsessed With Oil, but Chinese Batteries Will Soon Run the World

[Ben Zaiboc]

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On Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 16:48, spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:


> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org On Behalf Of Ben
> 
> Zaiboc via extropy-chat
> Sent: Saturday, 24 January, 2026 4:32 AM
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> Cc: Ben Zaiboc benzaiboc at proton.me
> 
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Trump Is Obsessed With Oil, but Chinese Batteries Will
> Soon Run the World
> 
> 
> Speaking of power, here are two interesting developments in fusion power:
> 
> https://interestingengineering.com/energy/worlds-first-public-fusion-company
> https://interestingengineering.com/energy/helion-gets-funding-to-power-to-mi
> crosoft
> 
> --
> Ben
> 
> _______________________________________________
> 
> 
> 
> Ben, back in the late Permian period, when I was an undergrad in mechanical
> engineering, an intentional oversimplification of the state of the art in
> fusion power was that there were three plausible fusion reactions:
> deuterium-deuterium, deuterium-tritium, and tritium-tritium. In very
> general, the problem with 2H-2H was that it we couldn't sustain it. The
> problem with 3H-3H was we couldn't contain it. The problem with 2H-3H was
> that most of the liberated energy went into a hot neutron, from which the
> energy could only be effectively extracted if that neutron was absorbed by
> some nucleus, and if so, that nucleus became radioactive.
> 
> Ja I know that is an oversimplification of a complex concept, but the
> Permian period was a long time ago. Yet today, we still have that same
> problem, and we still have the same sexy proposals: using mercury to absorb
> the neutron, and since the mercury is not structural, it doesn't matter as
> much as it would be if the neutron is absorbed by the containment vessel.
> My power textbook has mercury vapor tables (...ooooh we got so turned on by
> those (the late Permian was before Bill Gates came along and made it sexy to
> be a science geek (so we had to be turned on in other ways (rather than the
> usual means (such as literal "girls.")))))) Ah, those were the bad old
> days.
> 
> Now... we still see proposals for liquid metal containment of 2H-3H fusion.
> However... I am several decades more cynical than I was then. I do not
> consider the singularity as close as Elon Musk (he thinks this year, maybe
> next year) or John (who thinks two years, maybe three) however I agree the
> singularity is near, almost certainly within 20 years, which means at some
> point we just hafta admit fusion energy didn't work out for us.
> 
> On the other hand, if we manage to get AI to human level intelligence, it
> takes over and superintelligence achieves itself. Hmmm, SAI achieves
> itself, that just sounds weird. But it shouldn't. Modern human
> civilization achieved itself, using only human-level intelligence. It took
> a while.
> 
> With that attitude expressed in the previous paragraphs, you see why I am
> ready to give up on fusion power, or wait for SAI to explain to us how to do
> it. In the meantime, we have ways to convert chemical energy to electric
> power or use nuclear fission, and we need those means to create SAI. We
> know how to do this. Former considerations such as global warming are now
> irrelevant as all hell, unless... for some unknown reason...
> superintelligent AI is impossible. Ben, I don't see why it would be
> impossible. Do you? Anyone?
> 
> spike


Spike, if superintelligence is not possible (we don't need to keep saying "superintelligent AI": intelligence is intelligence, the 'artificial' part is irrelevant, just a conceit on our part, I reckon), we are all wasting our time, and will go extinct, sooner rather than later, if recent developments are any indication.

But of course I do think it's possible. Possible, probable, and maybe inevitable.

Maybe that's my optimism talking, though, because I do honestly think it's our only hope. Humans are just too dumb and fractious. We're like a tribe of monkeys that's found a crate of grenades and are squabbling over them. Worse, because we KNOW how dangerous they are. But still we squabble.

---
Ben