[ExI] The AI Superforecasters Are Here

[Adrian Tymes]

On Fri, Jul 3, 2026 at 5:46 PM BillK via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> I discussed the superforecaster AIs with Gemini Flash Extended Thinking AI.
> I ended by asking Gemini for some sample prompts and advice on how to
> force any general AI into doing better forecasting.

The problem wasn't making a prompt.  I had a fairly neutral prompt,
that I don't think better prompting would substantially improve the
results of.

The problem was the degree of accuracy.  Actually running the
experiment did not yield accurate enough forecasts to reliably make
substantial amounts of money, for the specific opportunities I was
looking at.