[ExI] ET Emergence (Was Re: Uploads as a group of AI agents)

[Jason Resch]

On Mon, Mar 30, 2026, 8:24 AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, Mar 29, 2026 at 10:40 AM Jason Resch via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> *> There is a probability bound to the "were the first" hypothesis. If you
>> assume there are, say 5,000,000 other intelligent civilizations that will
>> eventually arise in our observable universe, the. The chance that we would
>> be the first one is 1 in 5,000,000. It isn't impossible, but it isn't
>> likely.*
>>
>
> *That would be the probability if you assume 5,000,000 other intelligent
> civilizations will eventually arise in the observable universe (I don't
> know how you got that number, but never mind)*
>

It is an assumed number for the purposes of an example calculation.

* and if you had no other information to go on. But we DO have more
> information because we have telescopes, and none of them have revealed any
> evidence that anything has been engineered except for right here on the
> Earth, and we certainly should have if we are not the first.*
>

The above calculation is under the assumption they we are the first.

* Despite what Carl Sagan said, sometimes the absence of evidence IS
> evidence of absence. **What we can observe is finite so somebody has to
> be the first, and it looks like we are it. *
>
> *And from the evidence that we have, complex multicellular life seems to
> be difficult for evolution to come up with, and intelligent life even more
> so. Life first originated on the Earth about 3.8 billion years ago but for
> the first 3.3 billion years you'd need a microscope to observe any living
> being. And it's interesting that flight evolved independently 4 times, and
> the eye at least 40 times and perhaps as many as 60, but intelligence,
> defined as the ability to make something as complex as a radio telescope,
> evolved only once; and in the nearly 4 billion year history of life this
> planet that ability has only existed on this planet for about a century,
> and yet we are on the verge of a singularity with a greater cosmic
> significance than the Cambrian Explosion.*
>
> *> The bigger issue with John's analysis is he assumes the Kardashev scale
>> (greater expansion and energy use) will rule rather than the Barrow scale
>> (greeter miniaturization, speed and efficiency).*
>>
>
> *I see no reason to think that BOTH Dyson style megastructures AND **Drexler
> style Nanotechnology **won't happen because I assume you can never have
> too much computational ability. Yes, more efficiency means more
> computation, but so does more energy. And in the last couple of years it
> should be obvious why those who think ET will not want vast amounts of
> energy because they will upload is not a tenable hypothesis; unless you
> assume *
>

There are lots of assumptions that lead away from obvious megastructures.
Chief among them being that we assume solar radiation is an optimum energy
source (that it has the right power density, and temperature needed for
running the sorts of computers that are optimal). It is quite likely this
assumption is wrong, just like how SETI assumed all intelligent
civilizations would blast radio radio signals into space (but they didn't
anticipate the rise of fiber optic cables).

Consider: reversible computing technology enables 1 kg of matter to perform
more computations per second than 100 Dyson swarms. But perhaps it is the
case that such reversible computers require low temperatures, or extreme
isolation from the environment (like our quantum computers do).

Then the optimum strategy for maximizing compute would not be to surround
stars with swarms of solar panels.


*that a sort of electronic drug abuse is the inevitable consequence of any
> mind if it becomes powerful enough because it becomes completely hedonistic
> and is completely satisfied by a never ending orgasm and wants nothing
> more. If that is the case then T.S. Elliot was wrong and the world will not
> end with a bang or a whimper but with a moan of pleasure.*
>

LOL!



> *> The smallest events in history can push the timeframe back or forwards
>> by millions of years. Why then, should it be likely that all intelligent
>> civilizations across the galaxy invent rockets and computers at the same
>> approximate time?*
>>
>
> *You make a very good point. There is no reason to think that at all. *
>
> *> Consider: if the asteroid they wiped out dinosaurs never hit, would
>> dinosaurs have had their own space program millions of years ago?*
>>
>
> *Probably not. The era of dinosaurs lasted for 165 million years but the T
> Rex only became extinct 66 million years ago, so we are closer in time to
> the era of a T Rex than a T Rex was from the era of an early dinosaur like
> the Stegosaur. However I don't think a T Rex was significantly closer to
> building a spaceship than a Stegosaur was. *
>

I looked it up just now because I was curious. Apparently the T-Rex had
quite a large brain (300-400 grams), which might have given it an
intelligence closer to that of a baboon. A stegosaurus brain was 75 grams.

I think our view of reptilian intelligence is skewed, as if we think of
dinosaurs as like our modern crocodiles, we should consider that a modern
fully grown crocodile has a brain of only 8-14 grams.


> *Apparently evolving intelligence is hard, and if it wasn't for that
> random asteroid there wouldn't be any intelligent beings in the observable
> universe. *
>

I don't think intelligence is hard once you are to the point of having
evolved brains. Then it becomes largely a question of scale and efficiency.

Intelligence arises across all areas of the animals kingdom, from crows and
parrots, to cuttlefish and octopuses, rays and cleaner wrasses, to
elephants and dolphins.

If it hadn't been humans that built a civilian first, another species not
far behind likely would have got there eventually.

In fact, if we do upload/transcend, and leave earth, it is likely many
civilizations may arise on over the next 500 million years biological life
has left on this planet.

Jason
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