[ExI] They're Made out of Meat

[Ben Zaiboc]

On 28/05/2026 17:43, Gemini wrote:
> Comparative Summary
> Metric	Primary Determinants	Probability of Existing Elsewhere in the Observable Universe
> Cellular Life	Chemical abiogenesis, thermodynamic gradients, organic synthesis.	~70% to 80% (Highly polarized: likely everywhere or absolutely nowhere).
> Human-Level Intelligence	Compounding evolutionary filters (Eukaryogenesis, multicellularity, encephalization, symbolic language).	~49% to 62% (Substantial probability of cosmic solitude due to compounding "hard steps").
>
> While evolution is an exceptionally powerful optimization engine, it can only work with the material it is given. It easily optimizes cellular life into complex biospheres once the machinery exists, but the sheer number of mandatory, independent structural bottlenecks required to reach a technological observer means that within our finite horizon of 46.5 billion light-years, humanity may well be the only entity currently looking back out at the dark.



How does it conclude that a >50% chance of human-level intelligence existing somewhere other than earth means that we 'may well be' alone?


Keith Henson wrote:

> I wonder what Gemini thinks about Tabby's star and the 20 other stars in a thousand light-years radius that also blink? 

I doubt if that would be helpful. Its training data almost certainly contains more 'natural phenomenon' views than 'aliens' ones, so the word-association will reflect that. I don't think this is the kind of question that LLMs are useful for. They are probably better for pulling out information that's there in the data, but not obvious to us.

-- 
Ben