[ExI] Plague Russia and maybe Bioweapons

[John Clark]

*Scott Alexander had this to say about the recent outbreak of plague in
Siberia, I hope this doesn't turn out to be a big deal because thanks to
Donald the US Center For Disease Control is in a pretty sorry state, a pale
reflection of its former glory: *
*==*

"A technician at a Siberian lab has died of yersinia infection aka plague
<https://substack.com/redirect/bed54800-da4c-45bf-bae6-2285455d27fc?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>.
The details are fuzzy, but the lab appears to have been working with
pneumonic plague, an especially contagious and dangerous form. A few
articles quote authorities as saying the risk is small.

What about forecasters?

Sentinel Global Risks Watch
<https://substack.com/redirect/2f9ca5d4-01ab-4f89-902d-5b80298d9f05?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
¹ are the people best placed to have an opinion on this. They are a team of
tournament-winning superforecasters who provide probabilities on upcoming
risks as a public service, and their track record is excellent. They say
<https://substack.com/redirect/60b7a61b-d747-421c-85b6-bb5edad94153?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
:

Our forecasters think there’s a *0.7%* (0.1% to 2.0%) chance that there
will be more than 1,000 deaths attributed to plague across the globe in the
next 12 months. The low probability stems from the lack of known further
cases, the initial rapid isolation of contacts, and the ability to contain
the spread of typical plague outbreaks with antibiotics. However, we note
the possibility that the worker may have died from infection with an
antibiotic-resistant strain of plague or from a completely different
disease that may or may not have been related to her work at the institute.
While some commentators online are drumming up alarm, we mostly think this
is unjustified at this time because there is currently no report of onward
spread of any disease and strict quarantine measures have reportedly been
implemented. Thus, we consider this a serious incident that merits
monitoring *but not alarm* at this time. It is also a good opportunity for
readers to consider taking some general pandemic preparedness measures in
their own homes, buy some PPE, perhaps some far-UVC lights
<https://substack.com/redirect/f4e82196-2df1-4a6b-bdfb-abaa111eedda?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
², think about what would be good rural places to go to and how, etc., not
because of this incident in particular but taking it as a prompt.

Some of our forecasters think that the real story is, to some extent, not
whether there was a pneumonic plague death or whether there might be a
small pneumonic plague outbreak, which happen
<https://substack.com/redirect/de5c1e23-a57d-4e87-8672-c630f8c65323?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
periodically
around the world, but whether and the extent to which the Russian
government might have been developing bioweapons in the worker’s institute,
and whether
<https://substack.com/redirect/29e21c3b-4d71-481c-ab4d-b3f52c6f178a?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
the
current situation may have resulted from a bioweapons lab accident. This
incident is also worrying because it confirms our estimation that the risks
from lab leaks, and especially bioweapons lab leaks, are a latent worry.

What about the AI superforecasters? AIs recently beat the top human
forecasters in the Metaculus Cup for the first time, so the machines may
now be even more trustworthy than Sentinel. I asked two.

FutureSearch
<https://substack.com/redirect/7e046abd-4af1-45b8-9c84-3fa29d88da6c?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
 said
<https://substack.com/redirect/278060fd-66be-4384-b609-50054a0556e8?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
:

Probability: *1%*. The baseline rate of global plague mortality is far
below the 1,000-death threshold, typically averaging around 60 deaths per
year. According to the WHO’s 2019–2025 review, 10 countries reported 3,847
suspected cases and 423 deaths over the seven-year period . The highest
single-year death toll during this time was 79 in 2023 . Crucially, these
counts already incorporate suspected, probable, and confirmed cases across
all clinical forms—bubonic, pneumonic, and septicaemic . Exceeding 1,000
deaths would require an event roughly 13 times deadlier than the worst
recent year.

The recent death of a lab worker at a Russian anti-plague institute in
Irkutsk in early October 2026 raises vigilance, but current evidence
suggests the incident is contained. Russian authorities deny a lab accident
and report “pneumonia of unknown aetiology” . The WHO states that Russia
has reported no confirmed plague cases and assesses the risk of broader
spread as very low . Approximately 190 contacts have been identified,
monitored, and tested with no dangerous pathogens detected or secondary
symptomatic cases emerging . Because pneumonic plague develops rapidly, the
lack of onward transmission weeks after the initial exposure strongly
indicates this chain of infection is over, leaving the probability of an
outbreak exceeding 1,000 deaths highly remote.

On further questioning, it said that even that 1% was mostly just that the
regular epidemics in Madagascar got especially bad this year, and the
chance of a global pandemic starting with the Russian lab was “effectively
zero”.

And Preseen
<https://substack.com/redirect/5ac60a96-33e2-450e-823e-f6340b2b4822?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
said
<https://substack.com/redirect/eb772e5d-53f2-4660-a227-169bc0e1f5e7?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
:

*0.2% chance*. I assign less than 1% probability to a YES resolution. The
Russian incident has not established secondary cases or sustained
transmission (ECDC assessment
<https://substack.com/redirect/b47fff41-8381-4c85-936d-f3a7cca33b15?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>).
YES requires both an exceptional mortality surge and qualifying WHO
reporting that places enough deaths inside the specified window.

What about prediction markets? Polymarket is currently at 5%
<https://substack.com/redirect/f14495af-a823-4962-b430-d16b0c021020?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>
for
WHO declaring plague a “pandemic”, but markets are notoriously bad at
handling very small probabilities, so I don’t take it seriously as a
counter to the sources above.

I think this is a good example of a situation where technical forecasting
is helpful. I felt underserved by mainstream articles, which either tried
to maintain journalistic neutrality by giving no opinion, or quoted
scientists’ vague statements saying not to worry. Given that all three top
forecaster sources were 1% or less, and the statement they were forecasting
was much weaker than the scenario we’re worried about (eg it includes other
sources of plague epidemics, it starts at 1000 deaths rather than a true
global pandemic, etc), I think they’re sending a strong message that this
isn’t a direct cause for concern (although I agree with Sentinel that this
is a good indirect reminder that lab leaks, bioweapons, and pandemics all
remain ever-present dangers).

1

Conflict of interest note: An ACX grantee
2

Conflict of interest note: That link goes to Aerolamp, another ACX
grantee."
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