[ExI] Genetic recombination

[Ben Zaiboc]

On Monday, 26 October 2026 at 12:52, spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat
> 
> On Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 18:16, spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> >>... Now again with the (unrealistic) simplifying assumption of treating centimorgans as atoms of DNA...  spike
> ...
> 
> >...I have no idea what this means. I don't know what Morgans are (even after looking it up), and can't follow your maths.  Ben
> 
> 
> I looked at what is published online.  Best I can determine, the probability of two identical outcomes of the experiment I described previously is on the order of 10^-33, if we look at only the base pairs measured by the 50 dollar DNA kits.  If we could combine a particular sperm and a particular ovum repeatedly, the chances they would combine identically are about 10^-33.  Each of us are this unlikely.  Not impossible, only absurd.


As far as I can see, it's this line of reasoning that's absurd.

"If we could combine a particular sperm and a particular ovum repeatedly, the chances they would combine identically are about 10^-33"

I think this is not correct (50% chance of crossover at any one random point is far too high (and it's not that simple anyway)), but that doesn't really matter.

"Each of us is this unlikely"

How can you conclude this? Two identical genomes and one unique genome are different things, there's no relation. You can say each one of us is absurdly improbable, /and/ each one of us is inevitable, there's no conflict. Anthropic principle. Which isn't worth wasting breath on. You could call it a 'Free-Will' class of subject.
---
Ben