[ExI] roaring twenties

[spike at rainier66.com]

...> On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat
.
>
>>... and look for bets you think disagree with your outlook.  Regarding my 
> notion of Rep. Cortez for POTUS, her shares are at 63 cents that she 
> will run.  I consider this overpriced, but not enough overpriced to 
> compel me to buy a NOT at 32 cents.


>...Sorry, I don't understand this at all.
--
Ben

_______________________________________________


Suppose you estimate that Rep. Cortez has a 30% chance of winning the
nomination (in 2028.)  You go to the site, see that CortezNom is selling for
20 cents a share.  You put up 20 bucks for 100 shares.  If Cortez wins the
nomination, those shares are worth 100 bucks.  If she loses, they are worth
nothing.

If on the other hand, you see the shares selling for 40, then shares of the
CortezNomNot are going for about 60 cents.  Since you estimate they are
worth 70, buy some of those.  If Cortez loses, each is worth a buck.  If she
wins, they are worthless.  It's a game.  

You don't hafta hold for the next two years, and experienced players usually
don't.  You can sell your shares at any time, and good players do, for the
price fluctuates.  You can quietly take your profit, or swallow your pride
and cut your losses, based on developments over time.

It's a game based on Robin Hanson's IdeasFutures game he invented back in
the 1980s, where we had so much fun.  That one was a play money version, but
he developed a real money version once he worked the bugs out of it.  

Now, a lot of the futures sites serve as a good way to get an estimate of
the probability of an event.  For example, I have been watching Prop 40, a
California wealth tax measure, which will charge billionaires in California
a one-time 5% tax on their net worth, meaning one time after another,
starting with the billionaires, followed by the millionaires, then the
thousandaires, as the former categories flee the state.  The betting public
estimates collectively about 68% chance of passing:

https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/california-wealth-tax/

Ben, as I recall you were around here in the 1990s.  Didn't you recall our
yakking about IdeasFutures in this forum back then?  It was the coolest
game!  Any time Robin came to town, he couldn't buy his own meals: a dozen
proles were always picking up the tab, crowded around him, asking for
autographs, kissing his butt, etc.  I couldn't, because I could never get
past the proles in the way.  

spike