[ExI] dario's memo

[spike at rainier66.com]

...> On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] dario's memo

On 13/09/2026 13:22, John K Clark wrote:
> On Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>     > Why are we so shocked when our own predictions turn out to be correct?
>
>
> That is a good question. I don't have a good answer. 


Because we didn't really believe them?
-- 
Ben

_______________________________________________


Ben, belief isn't binary.  It's a spectrum.

When we buy term life insurance, we don't expect to die young and don't believe we will die young, but we are betting we will.  The insurance company knows there is about a 5% chance we will die before we turn 65.  They charge us 6 cents on the dollar.  They make money betting we will live until 65, we are betting we will die before then.

Buying term life isn't believing we will die young, but we believe we might.  

We have long believed a singularity is a possibility.  I have often wondered what it would be like to live during that time, and one prediction turned out to be true: no one can really say when the singularity occurred.  An exponential curve doesn't have a single transition point, but it has critical events.  That Hugging Face hack sure as hell looks like something the historians will write about in the future if there are historians in the future.

spike