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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Robert wrote:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>> I don't think the ExI list is the best place
to wager<BR>> on long term predictions. You want to go
to:<BR>> <A
href="http://www.longbets.org/">http://www.longbets.org/</A><BR>><BR>>
There are not many places where you can find both<BR>> Esther and Freeman
Dyson (as well as a number<BR>> of other significant people) placing
bets!<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The thing about a public bet is that in order for
it to </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>be determinable the matter under consideration
has</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>to be.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>People can throw opinions and speculations
past</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>each other for ever but if none of them is in
the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>form of a falsifiable hypothesis there is nothing
concrete</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>on which to build - its all just sound and
fury.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As the very last thing to happen in a bet is the
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>exchange of money (often to a third party for
holding)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>it seems </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>that a list
could have a policy of no betting </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and still </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>have a
great way of converting bs into practical </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>useable stuff. Then if those who want to actually
bet</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>do so they would have to take it offline. But in
the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>meantime (in the process</FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2> of formulating the bet) the </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>list gets the benefit of seeing what are the
more</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>practical suggestions and what are not. And
who</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>is talking rot and who is not :-) Chances are
most</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>folk would find the challenge to put some of
their</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>thoughts into testable form - well challenging,
but</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>that could be good. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just a thought. I'm pretty much done with it now.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Brett</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>[who can bet elsewhere and wonders what Esther
(?)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>would be betting with Dyson]
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