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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>[I'm back from holidays having done some
reading relevant to </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>some</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>recent discussion on
this list. Along with part of Popper's </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>_Realism</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>the Aim of
Science_, I reread a little Penguin </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>book on
some of </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Feynman's lectures entitled _The Meaning of
It </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>All_ containing a </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>chapter entitled the Uncertainty of
Science. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In his, imo, well written, and enjoyable
essay </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>A Technical </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>Explanation</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>of </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>Technical
Explanation, </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/technical.html">http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/technical.html</A></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Eliezer writes </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>(page
32 of 36 when I printed it out) :</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> "Imagine that you wake up one
morning and your left arm</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>has been </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>replaced by a blue tentacle.
The blue tentacle </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> obeys your
motor </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>commands - you can use it to pick
up</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> glasses, drive a car,
etc. </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>How would you explain this
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> hypothetical scenario?
Take a moment </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>to ponder this
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> puzzle before
continuing."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So I did imagine it. I imagined it in good
faith, and I imagined it </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>consistent with a </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>spirit </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>of </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>exploration </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>and good will built
that </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>Eliezer</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>had established through the early part of
his essay. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Where Eliezer had placed "spoiler </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>space", I stopped reading and </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>I</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>wrote down my</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>
explanation. </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>(I'd been reading
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>with pen </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>in
hand </FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>and</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>making critical notes <FONT
size=+0><FONT size=2>in the margin</FONT>.) </FONT></FONT><FONT
size=2> It seemed to be </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Arial><FONT face=Arial>fair </FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT
face=Arial>and </FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial><FONT face=Arial>scientific to provide
an answer *before* </FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial><FONT
face=Arial>reading </FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial><FONT
face=Arial>on so as not to</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial><FONT face=Arial>contaminate
the experiment.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT
face=Arial> )</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I wrote (and I quote):</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> "I'd "explain" it provisionally
as some surprising </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>organisation</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT> <FONT face=Arial
size=2>of people </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>had entered my house and
replaced </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>my arm whilst</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT> <FONT face=Arial
size=2>I slept with </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>technology </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>I didn't know existed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> I'd be bewildered. Frightened
even. But I'd not think "magic"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> had </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>occurred".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>And t</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>hen, with the
heightened curiosity of one who has </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>escalated</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>their </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>commitment
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>I went back to see what Eliezer </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>the Bayesian,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Eliezer the spreader-</FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>of-analogical-probability-clay-mass </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>would
have</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>done.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>And he'd written this. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> "How would I explain the event of my
left arm being replaced</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> by a </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>blue tentacle? T</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>he answer is
that I wouldn't. It isn't going</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> to happen."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Email perhaps can't convey my exact reaction to
that </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>but </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>here's</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>comments
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>I wrote </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>in the
margin. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>----</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>"No. No. No. You cheated Eliezer. You cheated
! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>You can't assign a probability of zero
! *</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Not fair!! You said it did happen. Your being
dishonest with the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>data to </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>say its not
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>going to happen."</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>----</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Most of what I know of </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>Bayesian reasoning </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know as a result
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>of</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>reading Eliezer's two essays on </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>it. So perhaps if <FONT face=Arial size=2>my
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>understanding</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Arial size=2>of </FONT></FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bayesian reasoning or
inference is wrong I can escape by</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Arial size=2>blaming Eliezer
</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Arial size=2>for it :-)
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>I suspect, on the basis of those two essays that I am a
Bayesian</DIV>
<DIV>although I didn't know I was and so I haven't been calling myself</DIV>
<DIV>one. The merit I see in the Bayesian approach is that it manages</DIV>
<DIV>uncertainties more carefully and consistently then most people do</DIV>
<DIV>intuitively. [And boy does the world need that].</DIV>
<DIV></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So, it's 2005. I'm a Bayesian. And
as long as I'm wearing metaphorical</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>teeshirts </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm also
a Bright. </FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Brett Paatsch</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>* Eliezer's assigning a probability of zero
to observed facts </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>however</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>unlikely </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>those
facts might have been a priori </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>is
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>the reason for my</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>heading </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>this post
</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bad Bayesian - no </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>buscuit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PS: Happy new year.</DIV>
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