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<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3798505">< http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3798505 ></a><br>
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<font color="#cc0033" face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"
size="-1"><b> Moore's Law at 40</b></font>
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<font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif" size="+1"><b>Happy
birthday</b><br>
</font><font color="#999999" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"
size="-2">
<div>Mar 23rd 2005 | SAN FRANCISCO
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>From The Economist print edition</div>
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<font face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size="-1"><b>The tale of a
frivolous rule of thumb</b></font><br>
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<p><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="-1"><b>Moore
the merrier</b></font></p>
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<p><font face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size="-1">IN
APRIL 1965, the worldwide semiconductor industry had annual revenues of
about $2 billion. It would be three more years before Gordon Moore, an
electronics boffin, co-founded a company called Intel. <i>Electronics
Magazine</i>,
a publication that Mr Moore remembers as “one of the throw-away
journals”, asked him to opine on a trend or two. So he did. In prose
that was passable for a numbers guy, Mr Moore imagined the possibility
of “home computers” and “electronic watches”. Oh, and he “blindly
extrapolated” from progress he had noticed in the preceding years that
the number of “components” (by which he meant transistors and
resistors) on a silicon chip would probably keep doubling every year or
so. </font></p>
<p><font face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size="-1">“It turned
out to be much more accurate than it had any reason to be,” snickers Mr
Moore today, 40 years on, savouring the understatement. His
off-the-cuff guess held true and, in the 1970s, was dubbed “Moore's
Law” by his friend Carver Mead. Mr Moore could not bring himself to
utter the phrase for about 20 years, he says. Yet as his “law” became
famous he found himself compelled to update it. In 1975, he projected a
doubling only every two years. He is adamant that he himself never said
“every 18 months”, but that is how it has been quoted, and proven
correct, ever since. </font></p>
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<p><font face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size="-1">All this is
somewhat beside the point. Mr Moore's message has always been simpler:
that the cost of computation, and all electronics, appeared certain to
plummet, and still does today, thus allowing all sorts of other
progress. And, indeed, for four decades, Moore's Law has served as
shorthand for the rise of Silicon Valley, the boom in <font size="-1">PC</font>s
(which even surprised Mr Moore, who had forgotten that he had predicted
home computers), the dotcom boom, the information super-highway, and
other exciting things.</font></p>
<p><font face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size="-1">Reflecting on
it today, as chairman emeritus of Intel, the largest firm in a global
industry 100 times bigger than it was in 1965, is clearly fun. Software
“frustrates” Mr Moore, who spends half his time in Hawaii, playing
online games and such. But his law seems safe for at least another
decade—or two to three chip generations—which is as far as he has ever
dared to look into the future. As things are made at scales approaching
individual atoms, he says, there will surely be limitations. Then
again, the law has often met obstacles that appeared insurmountable,
before soon surmounting them. In that sense, Mr Moore says, he now sees
his law as more beautiful than he had realised. “Moore's Law is a
violation of Murphy's Law. Everything gets better and better.”</font></p>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">
--
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice
Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
Home Page: <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html">< http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html ></a>
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TLCB Web Site: <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://www.tlc-brotherhood.org">< http://www.tlc-brotherhood.org ></a> [Southeast Asia
veterans, Allies, CIA/NSA, and "steenkeen" contractors are welcome.]</pre>
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