<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD><TITLE></TITLE>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content=text/html;charset=ISO-8859-1>
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2627" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY text=#000000 bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Kevin Freels wrote:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>> An interesting atricle at cnn today. Curious
to your thoughts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>> </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/05/12/visionary.pearson/index.html">http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/05/12/visionary.pearson/index.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The article starts :</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><!--StartFragment --> "Between 2015 and 2020 we will have
machines that will be</DIV>
<DIV> comparable to humans in terms of intelligence -- or
maybe even</DIV>
<DIV> significantly more intelligent."</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So in 10 to 15 years from now. But based
on projections not</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>specified. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If a single AI could be constructed in that time
period and protected</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>by a patent, then copied
ad-infinitum, </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>what effect do you imagine
that</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>would have economically and
geo-politically?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Suddenly there is a workforce that works for
nothing but is owned </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>by one person or group of persons (like a
corporation) and can be</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>produced at cost of materials. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This scenario doesn't look politically credible to
me even if it was </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>technologically possible. To many variables besides
technology have</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>to </FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>be </FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>assumed to have no impact on
the technological realisation </FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=2>time.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Amongst those variables that seem to be assumed
away are that </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>there</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>would be no effective political resistance to such
a technological</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>development that would revolutionise
the way human societies organise</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>themselves economically and politically now.
</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>How realistic is it to assume </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>that there would be no effective political</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>resistance in that sort of time frame? Surely we
know enough about</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>how fast ordinary people that vote in elections
that can control laws</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>that effect intellectual property can learn when we
only have to project</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>forward another three or four US Presidential
electoral periods. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10 - 15 years can seem either like a long time or a
short time</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>depending </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>on how you
view it. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10 years from now, human level AI? I'm
sceptical, I don't think the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>AI folk know enough today technically to climb
that sort of curve in</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>that sort </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>of
timeframe. But even if they did, or do, the politics will </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>almost certainly effect the timeframe of any roll
out that would have</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>such revolutionary consequences.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Brett Paatsch</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>