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spike wrote:<br>
<blockquote cite="mid200512101830.jBAIUpe12345@tick.javien.com"
type="cite">
<pre wrap=""><!---->
It's a terrible nonsolution only if we assume current methods
of producing ethanol, I agree. I have in mind a number of
energy saving solutions that take advantage of microchips
and software in small devices that would eliminate or greatly
reduce the need to run a tractor around a field.
Imagine a number of completely autonomous toaster sized
devices that wander the fields 24/7, looking around at
stems, deciding if it is a weed or otherwise. If
weed, snip off at the base, if otherwise decide
if the stalk has an ear ready for harvest, cut it off and
place it in the middle of the row for a larger harvest-
gathering machine to come along later. The device could
carry a small reservoir of fertilizer to place right at
the root of the desirable plants and nowhere else. The
notion is to downsize farm equipment, since we enormous
apes need not be part of the process.
Of course something like that would be expensive, but
imagine a market of a billion units. Anyone here who
has ever been involved in production engineering salivates
at the notion. We have world markets for sophisticated devices
that can go into the billions, such as televisions, but
there are so many different tastes. If we invented a
device like I am describing, there is no need to have
twenty or fifty different models. We could build a
super-automated factory so advanced one need only dump
beer cans in one end and get finished devices out the
other.
This calls on technology we don't currently have of
course, but if we compare to those two Mars rovers, which
are *still* wandering about on the red planet all these
months, over four times the specified mission life, built
by Lockeeed Martin,
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0512/06marsrovers/">http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0512/06marsrovers/</a>
then it looks like we could make autonomous farming
devices in the near term future and set up a highly
automated fab that could make them in staggering
quantities.
</pre>
</blockquote>
We are now in a farm system with harvesters that cut 40 foot strips at
4-8 miles per hour.<br>
Herbicides go on at about the 100 ft strip.<br>
Seeding is at 45-70 ft strips.<br>
<br>
Most guys like fields of 160-1000 acres.<br>
My neighbour has a 1000 acre field just next door to me.<br>
<br>
However I agree we'll see small autonomous equipment driven remotely by
people in net connected mini call centers distributed around the globe
, GPS tracking and guidance, with the new wrinkle <br>
that energy is beamed from the same wind generator towers that route
excess power back out to the grid<br>
and drive motors are to be not diesel but mostly electric. There may
be some onboard engine for hydraulics but with<br>
very few people near for the maintenace of pumps and lines, that
might be just too prone to failure to be sustainable.<br>
<br>
Equipment reliability will be a prime concern.<br>
<br>
It will take expert systems though to handle the various
mechanical/crop interactions. A good operator is hard to replace.<br>
For large scale monoculture I see automation as quite easy. For my
form of multicrop agriculture it is still going to take<br>
some human touch.<br>
<br>
For managment of perennial crops automation is the way to go. The
system travels 24/7 monitoring and applying the<br>
right growth factors and optimizes nutrients as well as zapping
insects, testing for bacteria and fungus parasites.<br>
<br>
For long term planning this is going to be challenge.<br>
I am trying to develop and implement an expanded agroforestry plan and
have to plan with 15-40 year managment<br>
plans. I will have to guess at what agriculture will be like and need
to produce 10, 25 and 40 years from now<br>
to be successful.<br>
<br>
I've just come back from our first scale-up from manufacturing our hemp
horse meds by the lab-scale batch to one that<br>
processes several tonne truck size batches. Every time you scaleup or
down it is a big learning experience, regardless<br>
of what you think you know at the start.<br>
<br>
With our hemp I am getting to really get into this.<br>
The creation of several fold market value and re-investment of that
into production and manufacturing needs to be justified<br>
by more than simple food for nutrition. Food for medicine and
life-long health custom produced takes the whole<br>
farming system full circle from a micromanagement standpoint. It
however is the only stream of revenue that can<br>
sustain and revitalize agriculture, in my view.<br>
<br>
So agriculture will diversify , truly if we go from fungal/algae life
cycle micro-scale to mega scaleup.<br>
Animals fitted with chips to override their nerve impulses and come
home to be "milked" of rumen <br>
bioreactor products.<br>
High intensity annuals like we mostly grow now combined with perennial
herbaceous and woody agroforestry.<br>
<br>
We are recreating a wilderness ecosystem populated by machines and a
few people.<br>
Of course the true organic, eco-santuaries of wildlife habitat will
have to co-exist with all this.<br>
<br>
If activity really intensifies there might also be more people around
but many times on a seasonal basis.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote cite="mid200512101830.jBAIUpe12345@tick.javien.com"
type="cite">
<pre wrap=""></pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre wrap="">... But long-term, we're in a glut of energy, and our (local)
limit is how much you can radiate through the atmosphere without
elevating temperatures overmuch (extraterrestrial solar)...
</pre>
</blockquote>
<pre wrap=""><!---->
As we improve water handling, the planet becomes greener,
which decreases albedo resulting in planetary warming. I
can imagine a number of ways to compensate however, such
as creating what amounts to a solar radiator blanketing
areas that will be difficult to convert to agriculture,
such as the Gobi and Sahara deserts. If we do this right,
we can simultaneously extract solar energy and radiate
heat into space.
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre wrap="">Already mid-term (less than 50 linear years) we can expect solar to
dominate the energetic landscape...
</pre>
</blockquote>
<pre wrap=""><!---->
Actually I agree with that, however I can imagine that
internal combustion will continue to be popular with
a segment of the population for the foreseeable. Electric
cars for the masses, super high performance IC engines
much like today's cars for those who can afford to run
them.
</pre>
<pre wrap="">
</pre>
<pre wrap="">
</pre>
</blockquote>
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