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At 01:09 AM 12/21/2005, Anna wrote:<br><br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite="">Again, maybe another naive
question:)<br><br>
How can you be activist for something that apparently hasn't happened
yet?<br>
How come it sounds like Nostradamus? Predicting things in advance that
hasn't happen yet?<br>
How can I be singularitarian when i'm not sure what is singularity?<br>
Knowing it's going to happen doesn't predict how it's going to
happen?<br>
Just curious</blockquote><br>
There is a professional field of that includes the skills of strategic
planning and scenario building in looking ahead toward the future and
analyzing what could possibly occur. The skills are not fly by
night. They are specific skills that require such talents as
environmental scanning, research, analysis, and planning, which use
a number of different methodologies. Rather than using the
terminology of "prediction" most of us use the terminology of
"forecasting," but it is essentially the same thing (minus the
mystical interpretation.)<br><br>
When a person spends a great deal of time thinking about the future, the
trends, the variables that are detailed elements of the trends and
environment that are or become the driving forces of change, he she often
becomes excited about the information gained throughout the work.
The excitement can lead to passion and even activism if the person
recognizes that there are patterns in society that occur due to the
balancing and/or reinforcing loops of events, and that if certain
variable were changed, even a little, the result would or could be a
different outcome. Understanding the patterns and knowing that they
can be altered leaves a window open to the fact that people and society
can and do change the conditions for better or for worse.<br><br>
Being an activist is a commitment to seeing "something" occur
in the way that would be either beneficial or detrimental to
society. <br><br>
Most of the Singularity activism realize the potential benefits and the
potential dangers of emerging superintelligences and that humanity does
have a choice and an opportunity, however, small, to affect the outcome
of the probable or the inevitable.<br><br>
In short, studying trends and having a broad spectrum of knowledge and
information about social, technological, environmental, economic domains
can provide a person with enough intellectual savvy to make assumptions
about what could possibly occur. Of course there are wild cards and
pop up unexpectedly and discontinuities that can throw everyone off, but
they have a range of probability as well, even unknown probability which
fits into the equation. <br><br>
Natasha<x-sigsep><p></x-sigsep>
<dl>
<dd><font size=2><a href="http://www.natasha.cc/">Natasha
</a><a href="http://www.natasha.cc/">Vita-More</a>
<dd>Cultural Strategist - Designer
<dd>Future Studies, University of Houston
<dd>President, <a href="http://www.extropy.org/">Extropy Institute</a>
<dd>Member, <a href="http://www.profuturists.com/">Association of
Professional Futurists</a>
<dd>Founder, <a href="http://www.transhumanist.biz/">Transhumanist Arts
& Culture</a>
<dd>Honorary Vice-Chair, <a href="http://transhumanism.org/">World
Transhumanist Association</a>
<dd>Senior Associate, <a href="http://foresight.org/">Foresight
Institute</a>
<dd>Advisor, <a href="http://alcor.org/">Alcor Life Extension
Foundation</a><br><br>
</font>
<dd><font face="Times New Roman, Times"><i>If you draw a circle in the
sand and study only what's inside the circle, then that is a
closed-system perspective. If you study what is inside the circle and
everything outside the circle, then that is an open system perspective.
</i>
<dd>Buckminster Fuller<br>
<br><br></font>
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