<br><div><span class="gmail_quote">On 3/17/06, <b class="gmail_sendername"><a href="mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org">email@example.com</a></b> <<a href="mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org">email@example.com</a>
> wrote:</span><br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">... "hard" and "soft" take-off Singularities. And I can remember when people said it would happen around 2025 but the date seems to keep on getting pushed back. lol
</blockquote><div><br>It doesn't "happen" on a specific date. It just keeps getting faster and faster. If one is adapted to it one will probably not notice the difference. Not enough work has been done, IMO, regarding the "degree of difficulty" of various achievements within the singularity ramp-up so it is difficult to know which items will require 10 more years, 5 more years, 2 more years, etc.
<br><br>Unfortunately, IMO, Ray tends to, at times, invoke "and then something magical happens" instead of opting for "at this point in development we have hit the limits the physical universe allows and progress along this path must cease".
<br></div><br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">Will the "Techno-Rapture" still save us or must we look to cryonics?
</blockquote><div><br>There are too many variables. I'm personally of the opinion that people in the 40-50 age range (in 2006) are right in the middle of the probabilities. People much younger will probably experience the the rapid ramp up of the singularity directly. People much older will probably only experience it from a discontinuous perspective (
i.e. they will probably have to go through one of cryonic, dehydration, vitrification or embalming processes before they *might* be able to be brought back in one ore more active forms well into the singularity takeoff). People in the "middle" probably stand a 50:50 chance of things happening fast enough that they get to ride the wave.
<br><br>And as pointed out -- accidents which do not destroy your brain microstructure may potentially cause a significant "down time" and are thus a good reason for people younger than 40 to give strong consideration to "worst case" scenarios and solutions (cryonics being among the better known).