<br><div><span class="gmail_quote">On 3/25/06, <b class="gmail_sendername">Robin Hanson</b> <<a href="mailto:rhanson@gmu.edu">rhanson@gmu.edu</a>> wrote:</span><br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
Surely many things that can go wrong between a general conceptual<br>demonstration and a full scale solution to global warming.</blockquote><div><br>Yes, but as you point out there are problems with the other solutions as well. To get more iron to dump into the ocean we have to mine more (but there doesn't appear to be significant shortages in that respect). To get more phosphate is somewhat more problematic I suspect. But we do have the infrastructure (for iron mining for steel and phosphate production for fertilizers already in place). If there are problems I suspect they would be related to dispersing the materials over a large enough oceanic area/volume and/or physical distribution capacity for the effort (though one does think of the "Liberty ship" effort during WWII and things like low cost crop dusting planes). I'm sure there are any number of companies that would love a contract for a large number of UAV ocean dusters.
<br></div><br>I just can't see any good reasons (currently) why such approaches would be infeasible. But I'm really rather shocked at how much screaming (and scientific research) is going into proving its a problem and how little is going into solutions like "cut back on CO2 production". That solution will *not* solve the problem of all of the CO2 which we have already put into the atmosphere which will continue to warm the planet (though at a somewhat slower pace).
<br><br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">Yes humanity will not go extinct due to global warming. But those<br>disruptions will have real costs, which we would prefer to avoid all
<br>else equal. [snip]<br></blockquote><div><br>Actually I'm not so sure. Unless you envision zero (or negative) population growth sometime over the next 50 years (or "real" nanotech enabling 8-10 billion people residing on yachts in international waters) I'd suggest that warming up land in the northern latitudes is the best way to plan for an expanded human population and provide them with the land resources required to grow food, live in, etc. Allow populations to grow in areas where resource bases (water, agricultural land, etc.) are stretched to their limits has consequences as well. (We could start a side discussion about the costs of certain population policies in China for example...) I'd love to see some forward-thinking politicians go on record and point out *why* global warming is a good thing for humanity.
<br><br>If you want to provide them with ammunition for that discussion I'd enjoy reading the papers... :-)<br><br>For now, I think the best policy would be a gradually increasing tax on fossil fuels with the money going directly into the hands of scientists or startups (perhaps through organizations like the NSF or SBA?) where politicians can do as little misdirecting as possible. I believe the polls in the
U.S. indicate that the public would support such a policy. The public currently doesn't trust the politicians to use taxes wisely -- but there is some level of confidence that scientists and small businesses acting in their own self-interest will do so.
<br><br>It could be argued that current high energy prices are already doing that indirectly in some places -- all of the natural gas drilling & production in Wyoming is providing the state with so much money (relative to its population) that they are having trouble finding things to do with the funds -- one place the legislature is dumping the money seems to be higher education.
<br><br>Robert<br><br></div></div>