<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2769" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<DIV>This weekend the Colts of Indianapolis play the Pats of New England
to advance to the Superbowl. The last two times they have played each other the
Colts have won. The previous four games before these last two victories the
colts had lost to New England.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In the last six games therefore the Pats have won 2/3 of the time.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The quarterback of the Pat's Tom Brady is 12 victories and one defeat in
his last 13 games. </DIV>
<DIV>As their leader he has won the game for them at a rate of over
90%.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Yet, All the smart money(gamblers) are betting the Colts to win the game
and to win it by over 3 points. It is one thing to discuss probability, but to
bet real money that's another.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Who is the correct bet, the smart money or the Bayesian idea that the
number says Brady wins the big games.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Frank</DIV></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>