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<DIV style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new york, times, serif">----- Original Message ----<BR>From: John Grigg <desertpaths2003@yahoo.com><BR>To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><BR>Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2007 5:33:28 AM<BR>Subject: [ExI] how would Transhumanists cope if the Singularity did not happen in their lifetime?<BR><BR>
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<DIV>> I am very curious to see how things work out in the personal lives of present-day Transhumanists should the </DIV>
<DIV>> Singularity not happen as hoped by the year 2030. By that year many of the "older folks" among us will have </DIV>
<DIV>> used (or be on the verge of using) the only option available for a possible escape from death, which would be </DIV>
<DIV>> cryonic suspension. While Ray Kurzweil came to his 2030 date for the Singularity by using Moore's law, </DIV>
<DIV>> I'm sure he (and many others) found it comforting that this was a year within striking distance of his personal lifespan. </DIV>
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<DIV>Surely Kurzweil's wild guess is not an article of faith among transhumanists. Hopefully not even the actual prediction of a singularity, in general.</DIV>
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<DIV>The singularity prediction is a fallacy, based upon static projection, essentially the same mistake Thomas Maltus made when claiming Great Britain would collapse under a massive population explosion by 1850.</DIV>
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<DIV>In real life, there are so many dynamic factors in culture, technology, and reality itself that it's likely no such singularity will ever occur, however much I love Vernor Vinge.</DIV>
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<DIV>As you guys have probably all heard, similar logic leads one to conclude that safety razors will have an infinite number of blades by 2015</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></div></body></html>