<html><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Hmm, quoting:<div>"<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; text-align: left; ">Al Gore has claimed that there are scientific forecasts that the earth will become warmer and that this will occur rapidly. University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong, author of<em>Principle of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners</em>, and Kesten C. Green, of Monash University (and Armstrong’s Co-Director of <a href="http://forecastingprinciples.com/" style="color: rgb(51, 136, 204); text-decoration: none; ">forecastingprinciples.com</a>), have been unable to locate a scientific forecast to support that viewpoint. As a result, Scott Armstrong offers a challenge to Al Gore that he will be able to make more accurate forecasts of annual mean temperatures than those that can be produced by current climate models."</span></div><div><div style="text-align: left;"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#444444" face="'Lucida Grande'" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br></span></font></div><div style="text-align: left;"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#444444" face="'Lucida Grande'" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">Odd. The general scientific consensus is that significant warming is occurring now. So why is there room for doubt that earth will become warmer? It has been and is becoming warmer and the likely causes are not significantly abating. In some cases the increase in temperature appears to be building on itself, especially in the Artic. So what exactly is meant by the above? There is certainly no dearth of scientific papers presenting models of how fast average temperatures have risen or may rise or under what circumstances there may be more rapid fluctuations in temperature. Methinks the above is not quite honest while protesting that it is more honest. Average temperature at each weather station is not a very scientific way to gauge global warming. </span></font></div><div style="text-align: left;"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#444444" face="'Lucida Grande'" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></span></font></div><div style="text-align: left;"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#444444" face="'Lucida Grande'" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">- samantha</span></font></div><div style="text-align: left;"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#444444" face="'Lucida Grande'" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></span></font></div><div style="text-align: left;"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#444444" face="'Lucida Grande'" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></span></font></div><div><div>On Jun 22, 2007, at 8:43 AM, Max More wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite">Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green aim to improve the use of scientific <br>forecasting methods in the public policy area. They are using global <br>warming as their first example. See <a href="http://theclimatebet.com">http://theclimatebet.com</a><br><br>Scott tells me that the following paper will be presented next Wednesday:<br><br>Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts<br><a href="http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf">http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf</a><br><br><br>Max<br><br>_______________________________________________<br>extropy-chat mailing list<br>extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org<br>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat<br></blockquote></div><br></div></body></html>