<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><HTML><FONT SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10>In a message dated 02/03/2008 18:57:00 GMT Standard Time, robert.bradbury@gmail.com writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
>I have not posted to the list in some time. And due to philosophical differences I will >not engage in open discussions (which are not really open!).<BR>
><BR>
>But a problem has been troubling me recently as I have viewed press releases for >various AI conferences.<BR>
<BR>
>I believe the production of an AGI spells the extinction of humanity. More >importantly it has what I would call back propagating effects. Why should iI expend >ntellectual energy, time, money, etc. in a doomed species? Put another way, those >of you who have had and/or are investing in children are potentially pursuing a >pointless endeavor. If an AGI develops or is developed their existence is fairly >pointless. Our current culture obviously shows absorption is nearly instantaneous >for younger minds. They will know they are "obsolete" in an AGI world.<BR>
<BR>
>So given some limited genetic drive to keep making humans, that will last a while. >But I see no way out of the perspective that the general development (vs the >managed >development) of an AGI leads to the survival of humanity.<BR>
><BR>
>And so, we must present transhumanism as an "Extinction Level Event" -- are >willing to deal with thiat?<BR>
><BR>
>Robert<BR>
<BR>
Hello again Robert (been a long time).<BR>
I have similar concerns as yourself and I am heavily leaning toward AGI=very bad. In a fairly recent poll of opinions regarding AGI's for Bruce Klien of Novamente. I voiced some of my concerns. The main backbone which these fears are framed around, is the lack of hormonal or chemical influence on an AGI. A subject which I raised many years ago.<BR>
Personally I have continued to invest in children mainly in the hope that my unified general theory of relativity finally falls together and can be easily applied to get my off this rock, just before the singularity occurs.<BR>
If all goes well I may return. If not, then at least my home made interstellar cryo chamber won't need topping up every few weeks.<BR>
There is always hope....... hopefully.<BR>
Alex<BR>
<BR>
Copy of my reply to Bruce pasted below.<BR>
<BR>
>Alex, quick question... when do you think <BR>
AI will surpass human-level intelligence?<BR>
<BR>
[ ] 2010-20<BR>
[ ] 2020-30<BR>
[ ] 2030-50<BR>
[ ] 2050-70<BR>
[ ] 2070-2100<BR>
[ ] Beyond 2100<BR>
[ ] Prefer not to make predictions<BR>
[ ] Other: __</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
><BR>
<BR>
Hi Bruce,<BR>
Im not sure I would agree with the question itself, but If you want my honest answer, then it really isn’t as simple as a tickin the box time frame. The truth is that AI already surpasses human intelligence in many areas. As for the fields of intelligence where AI does not equal or surpass human ability, this is really an issue of ‘lack of application’ rather than lack of applicable technology.<BR>
I am sure that if the people you have asked this question to are the usual suspects, then you will receive many in-depth calculations of comparative computation, so I will skip the maths to prove the point.<BR>
<BR>
So what it boils down to is this:<BR>
When will we finally put all the relevant technology together in one box, to create an AI that surpasses the average human intelligence?<BR>
My answer to this would be 2020-30. Unless there is a major world economic upset in the next decade, which is a distinct possibility. In which case I would push it to 2030-50.<BR>
<BR>
However I would add a strong caveat and warning.<BR>
If we do not put all the technology together in one box in a systematic and controlled manner, at some point it will happen spontaneously, through pure chance or accident. The internet being a prime example of opportunity for this to occur. When it happens, and it will. We will have no control, insight or warning. We (Homosapiens) will instantly become obsolete. The ramifications of this are impossible to predict.<BR>
<BR>
As if this isn’t bad enough, A spontaneously formed AI will have far superior information gathering skills, strategic analysis, will know our entire knowledge base (Including all the utter rubbish on Wikipedia) and will be completely devoid of ‘natural hormonal control’ which in short means no emotions, fears, wants, needs or empathy for anyone or thing, including itself.<BR>
An Intelligence of this magnitude with a global reach into just about every control system on the planet could and probably will do major damage. Although probably not through design or desire, but just through exploration of ability or pure accident.<BR>
<BR>
When would I put a time frame on this happening?<BR>
<BR>
<B>2020-30</B><BR>
<BR>
So as you can see, I think the singularity is going to happen quite soon, whether we want it to or not. It sounds like I am a Doomsayer, but far from it. When you are going to be hit in the head,you generally see it coming and have the chance to duck. The race to the singularity is already well underway and so the real question is: Will we be in control?<BR>
<BR>
Alex<BR>
</FONT> </HTML>