<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><div>On Jul 6, 2010, at 8:27 AM, Mike Dougherty wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Verdana; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; ">I feel that even if you have seen a coin flip result in heads 99 times in a row, you cannot state with absolute certainty that the 100th toss will also be heads.</span></blockquote><br></div><div>Assuming that the coin is fair (and I'd have my doubts after 99 heads) the chance it will come up heads again is 50-50. And being absolutely certain is the easiest thing in the world; being absolutely certain and also correct is much more difficult, and even then you may not know you are absolutely certain and correct.</div><div><br></div><div> John K Clark </div><br></body></html>