The author seems to be confusing probability theory. This may be simple<br>dismissal without addressing the substance of it, but if these flaws are found<br>in the intro section, well...<br><br>> This undermines the<br>
> basis for probabilistic predictions of local experiments. If in nitely many observers<br>> throughout the universe win the lottery, on what grounds can one still claim that<br>> winning the lottery is unlikely? To be sure, there are also in nitely many observers<br>
> who do not win, but in what sense are there more of them?<br><br>The author is confusing senses of "infinity". There are (infinitely) many grades of<br>"infinity" for precisely this reason. Take a, the number of people who play the<br>
lottery and win, and b, the number of people who play the lottery and lose. Let's<br>say this lottery only happens every time there is an exact multiple of 100 players,<br>and that the odds of winning are 1%. Thus, a = 99 * b. Therefore, a > b. This<br>
relationship holds true even if b becomes infinite.<br><br>> The<br>> sun will shine with probability x, and it will snow with probability 1 - x. But<br>> this does not mean that it cannot rain.<br><br>Actually, yes, if the probabilities are that way, it does mean that. (The author<br>
does not seem to be allowing for multiple states of weather within a day.)<br>x + (1 - x) = 1, leaving no room for any other probability.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Sep 29, 2010 at 8:52 AM, scerir <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:scerir@libero.it">scerir@libero.it</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">see also:<br>
<a href="http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/09/bousso-et-al-catastrophe-imminent-time.html" target="_blank">http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/09/bousso-et-al-catastrophe-imminent-time.html</a><br>
<br>
'time' is 'abundant' here <a href="http://www.fqxi.org/community" target="_blank">http://www.fqxi.org/community</a><br>
<a href="http://www.fqxi.org/community/essay/winners/2008.1" target="_blank">http://www.fqxi.org/community/essay/winners/2008.1</a><br>
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