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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=031460119-14112010><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial>Hi Michael, great to hear from you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=031460119-14112010><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=031460119-14112010><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial>I looked at your link and have to say that your analysis looks
very, very very much like my Primo Posthuman supposition for the future of
brain, mind and intelligence as related to AI and the Singularity. My
references are quite similar to yours: Kurzweil, Voss, Goertzel, Yudkowsky, but
I also include Vinge from my interview with him in the mid
1990s.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=031460119-14112010><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=031460119-14112010><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial>Best,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=031460119-14112010><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial>Natasha</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Freestyle Script'; COLOR: #404040; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 191"><A
href="http://www.natasha.cc/"><SPAN
style="COLOR: #404040; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 191"><FONT size=2
face=Arial>Natasha Vita-More</FONT></SPAN></A></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV><BR>
<DIV dir=ltr lang=en-us class=OutlookMessageHeader align=left>
<HR tabIndex=-1>
<FONT size=2 face=Tahoma><B>From:</B> extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Michael
Anissimov<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, November 14, 2010 11:59 AM<BR><B>To:</B> ExI
chat list<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [ExI] Hard Takeoff<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>Here's a list I put together a long time ago:
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/articles/relativeadvantages.htm">http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/articles/relativeadvantages.htm</A></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Say I meet someone like Natasha or Stefano, but I know they haven't been
exposed to any of the arguments for an abrupt Singularity. Someone more
new to the whole thing. I mention the idea of an abrupt Singularity, and
they react by saying that that's simply secular monotheism. Then, I
present each of the items on that AI Advantage list, one by one. Each time
a new item is presented, there is no reaction from the listener. It's as
if each additional piece of information just isn't getting integrated.
</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>The idea of a mind that can copy itself directly is a really huge deal.
A mind that can copy itself directly is more different than us than we're
different from most other animals. We're talking about an area of
mindspace way outside what we're familiar with. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>The AI Advantage list matters to any AI-driven Singularity. You may
say that it will take us centuries to get to AGI, so therefore these arguments
don't matter, but if you think that, you should explicitly say so. The
arguments about whether AGI is achievable by a certain date and whether AGI
would quickly lead to a hard takeoff are <I>separate arguments</I> -- as if I
need to say it. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>What I find is that people don't like the *connotations* of AI and are much
more concerned about the possibility of THEM PERSONALLY sparking the Singularity
with intelligence enhancement, so therefore they underestimate the probability
of the former simply because they never care to look into it very deeply.
There is also a cultural dynamic in transhumanism whereby interest in hard
takeoff AGI is considered "SIAI-like" and implies that one must be culturally
associated with SIAI. </DIV>
<DIV><BR>-- <BR><A href="mailto:michael.anissimov@singinst.org"
target=_blank>michael.anissimov@singinst.org</A><BR><SPAN
style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; FONT-FAMILY: arial, sans-serif; FONT-SIZE: 13px">
<DIV>Singularity Institute<BR></DIV>
<DIV>Media Director</DIV></SPAN><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>