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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Michael Anissimov<br><b>…</b><br><br></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='color:#1F497D'>></span>Heya Spike<span style='color:#1F497D'>…</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Heya back Michael! The level of discourse here has improved an order of magnitude since you started posting last week. Thanks! You SIAI guys are aaaallways welcome here.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Sun, Nov 14, 2010 at 10:10 PM, spike <<a href="mailto:spike66@att.net">spike66@att.net</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><br><span style='color:#1F497D'>>></span>I am not advocating a Bill Joy approach of eschewing AI research, just the<br>opposite. A no-singularity future is 100% lethal to every one of us, every<br>one of our children and their children forever. A singularity gives us some<br>hope, but also much danger. The outcome is far less predictable than<br>nuclear fission.<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all><span style='color:#1F497D'>></span>Would you say the same thing if the Intelligence Explosion were initiated by the most trustworthy and altruistic human being in the world, if one could be found?<span style='color:#1F497D'>...</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Ja I would say nearly the same thing, however I cheerfully agree we have a muuuch better chance of a good outcome if the explosion is initiated by the most trustworthy and altruistic among us carbon units. I am a big fan of what you guys are doing as SIAI. It pleases me to see you working the problem, for without you, the inevitable Intelligence Explosion falls to the next bunch, who I do not know, who may or may not make it their focus to produce a friendly AI. That would reduce the probability of a good outcome.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>That being said:<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>></span>In general, I agree with you except the last sentence.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><br><span style='color:#1F497D'>></span><a href="mailto:michael.anissimov@singinst.org" target="_blank">michael.anissimov@singinst.org</a><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Singularity Institute<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Media Director<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I do hope you are right in that disagreement, but I will defend my pessimism in any case. The engineering world is filled with problems which unexpectedly defeated their designers, or do something completely unexpected. In my own field, the classic example is the hybrid aerospike engine, which was designed to burn both kerosene and liquid hydrogen, and also to throttle efficiently. If we can get a single engine to do that, optimizing thrust at varying altitudes and burn two different fuels without duplicating nozzles, pumps, thrust vector control, all that heavy stuff, then we can achieve single stage to orbit. We poured tons of money into the effort, but that seemingly straightforward engineering problem unexpectedly defeated us. We cannot use a single engine to burn both fuels, and consequently we have no SSTO to this day. The commies worked the same problem, it kicked their asses too, as good as they are at large scale propulsion. There were unknowns that no one knew were unknowns.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It could be my own ignorance of the field (hope so) but it seems to me like there are waaay many unknowns in what an actual intelligence (artificial or bio) will do. It appears to me to be inherent in the field of intelligence. Were you to suggest literature, I will be willing to study it. I want to encourage you lads up there in Palo Alto. Your cheering section is going wild. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>We know the path to artificial intelligence is littered with the corpses of those who have gone before. The path beyond artificial intelligence may one day be littered with the corpses of our dreams, of our visions, of ourselves.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></body></html>