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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] new heavy lifter<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Apr 5, 2011, at 2:10 PM, spike wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>…</span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I often hear the comment that the space shuttle’s capability was exaggerated (30 tons to LEO, 12 tons return.) It never came close to either, but it was *<b>theoretically</b>* capable of both of these goals in its final configuration. </span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>>…</span>Originally we were told that a Space Shuttle would have a turnaround time of only 2 weeks and could make 25 trips a year, but they were lucky to get 3 trips a year. Originally we were told the probability of catastrophic failure was astronomically unlikely, but the true figure was about 2% per flight. Originally we were told that because its reusable the cost of putting something into orbit would drop by many orders of magnitude, but we'd have done better if we never heard of the shuttle and just kept on making Saturn 5's<span style='color:#1F497D'>… </span>John K Clark <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>John I agree the shuttle program was a long term catastrophe for the US space program. Do let us make sure we are whooping the right dog. Those numbers you cited were for a different set of assumptions. NASA made some decisions in the 1970s during the shuttle design and build phase that made it clear they were sacrificing some of those end goals, long before the shuttles flew. During the design phase, and after a lot of the hype had already been printed in hard copy, they defunded a lot of the stuff that would have contributed to faster turnaround and long term performance.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>After the first transport to Cape Canaveral aboard a B747, it was already clear the shuttle would achieve nothing like a 2 week turnaround. That was on 10 April 1979. I remember that day as clearly as any from that entire decade. I was there when the aircraft landed at Cape Canaveral. That was the oddest mixture of elation and disappointment, I have a hard time even describing it, but I will try. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Many of the tiles failed during the 10 April flight and fell off. I was an engineering student at the University of Central Florida then, so you can imagine the hot topic of conversation. We knew enough about re-entry systems to know that if any of the tiles came off the critical surfaces (pretty much anything on the bottom side) during re-entry, the aerodynamic load would be transferred to the tile behind the failed one, and it too would fail within seconds, then the one behind that, in what came to be called the zipper effect. Row of tiles come off, front to back, wing rips off, result: loss of vehicle and crew. We saw an example of that on 16 January 2003. Most were surprised when Challenger exploded on liftoff in 1986, but few were surprised by Columbia’s break up on reentry in 2003. We knew that could happen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Back in 1979, a lot of the smart guys realized the existing thermal protection system would need to be redone. I knew this because I was acquainted with many of these smart guys, including my girlfriend’s father. He had crystal foresight: NASA would end up redoing the tiles, payload capacity would go way down, turnaround time would go way up, costs would go thru an already very high roof. All this was well known by summer of 1979, two years before first flight. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There was a strong contingency arguing at the time to scrap the damn thing and restart the Saturn V program. There were already credible voices arguing that we couldn’t rebuild a Saturn V at that time. I was there, heard it, saw it, believed it, still do.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>